Key Takeaways
• Global poultry production to rise
• Sustainability and cost challenges in poultry industry
• Impact of global trade policies on poultry
• Emerging markets driving poultry consumption
• 2024 outlook for poultry markets
Unprecedented Growth in Global Poultry Consumption
The global appetite for poultry is surging, with projections indicating that poultry meat production will exceed 139 million metric tons in 2023, marking an almost 3% increase compared to 2022. This growth trajectory is expected to continue, with production forecasted to reach 156 million metric tons by 2032—a significant 14% rise from the 2020-22 average. Such a remarkable growth rate positions poultry as the leading source of protein production worldwide, outpacing other meat sources such as pork, beef, and sheep. The increasing demand for poultry products is driven by a combination of factors, including changing dietary preferences, population growth, and the perceived health benefits of poultry meat compared to red meats.
Sustainability and Cost Challenges in the Poultry Industry
While the poultry industry is on a path of rapid expansion, it faces significant sustainability challenges. Key among these is the environmental impact of poultry production, including resource use and emissions. Additionally, the industry is grappling with rising production costs, particularly due to increases in the prices of corn and soy—major components of poultry feed—as well as escalating fuel prices. These cost pressures pose a substantial challenge to the sector, threatening to hinder its growth and profitability.
The Impact of Global Trade Policies on Poultry Markets
Global trade policies, tariffs, and trade wars have a profound impact on the poultry industry and international trade. The retention of Canada’s supply management system under the USMCA, which limits domestic production of dairy, eggs, and poultry to support farmers and protect them from import competition through high tariffs, is a prime example of how trade policies can shape the industry. Additionally, the rise in avian influenza cases and the resulting trade restrictions further complicate the global poultry market landscape, influencing supply chains and pricing.
Emerging Markets Fueling the Future of Poultry Production
Emerging markets are increasingly becoming pivotal to the future of poultry production and consumption. The positive outlook for poultry markets in 2024, despite weak global economic growth and higher consumer prices, is largely attributed to the demand in these markets. In Europe, for example, the production of turkey and duck has been more exposed to outbreaks due to longer life cycles and less modern housing facilities, yet the demand remains robust. Rabobank’s annual Global Animal Protein Outlook report highlights that, despite unfavorable market conditions, poultry and aquaculture are expected to see production growth in 2024, driven significantly by the demand in emerging markets.
Looking Ahead: The 2024 Outlook for Poultry Markets
The global poultry industry is poised for consolidation in 2024, navigating through the challenges of tight margins and higher consumer prices. The industry’s ability to adapt and sustain success amid slow growth in animal protein production will be crucial. Brazil, for instance, is expected to lead production growth across all species, with poultry playing a significant role, albeit at a slower pace compared to 2023 levels. The global animal protein production landscape is undergoing a shift, with poultry and aquaculture set to drive growth while beef and pork are expected to contract. This dynamic underscores the resilience and adaptability of the poultry sector in response to changing market conditions and consumer preferences.
In conclusion, the global poultry industry stands at a crossroads, facing a future filled with both opportunities and challenges. As the world continues to push for more protein, the poultry sector’s ability to navigate sustainability issues, cost pressures, global trade policies, and the demands of emerging markets will determine its trajectory in the coming years. With the right strategies and adaptability, the poultry industry can continue to thrive, meeting the global demand for a healthy and sustainable source of protein.
