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Botswana And South Africa - Economic Analysis

Monetary Policy Statement 2010 Mid-term Review

  • August 2010
  • 13 pages

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    Of price changes. The bank uses interest rates and open market operations to influence demand (relative to supply capacity) and, ultimately, price developments in the direction consistent with price

  • OBTF SO W 1
  • MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT 2010 MID-TERM REVIEW 1
  • 1. Introduction 2
  • 1.1 The Mid-Term Review (MTR) of the 2010 Monetary Policy Statement (MPS)
  • assesses 2
  • 1.2 The 3 - 6 percent inflation objective range represents the Bank's definition
  • of price 2
  • 1.4 The global economy is expected to continue on the recovery path, albeit
  • tentatively with 2
  • expectations of low, sustainable and predictable inflation. 2
  • 2.1 Monetary policy is conducted to attain price stability in the economy which,
  • in the Bank's 2
  • Monetary Policy Framework 2
  • 2.2 The Bank's policy framework entails a forecast-based, and thereby
  • forward-looking, 3
  • 2.4 Operationally, the Monetary Policy Committee meets approximately every two
  • months. 3
  • 2.5 An important benefit of achieving the inflation objective is the
  • contribution to 3
  • 2.6 The Bank's monetary policy framework and its implementation are regularly 3
  • Inflation in the first half of 2010 4
  • 3.4 By tradeability, imported tradeables inflation accelerated from 6 percent in
  • December 5
  • 3.3 Among the administered prices, the downward trend in the rate of increase in
  • fuel prices 5
  • 3.2 Domestic inflation was stable around 6 percent in the first quarter of 2010,
  • but 5
  • 3.6 An indication of economic recovery is also apparent from the faster rate of
  • increase in 6
  • 3.7 The fall in government deposits at the Bank of Botswana is a reflection of
  • the budget 6
  • 5.2 South Africa's GDP is expected to grow by 2.6 percent in 2010, following a
  • contraction of 8
  • 5.1 The forecast for inflation entails an assessment of prospective developments
  • of factors 8
  • Inflation Outlook 8
  • 5.4 The improvement in world economic performance is also expected to contribute
  • to 9
  • 5.3 World economic recovery is on track and global output is forecast to grow by
  • 4.6 percent 9
  • 5.5 The recovery in the domestic economy that is evident from developments in
  • the first 10
  • 6.1 In line with the forward-looking, forecast-based framework, the Bank's
  • monetary policy 10
  • Monetary Policy Stance 10
  • Summary and Conclusions 11
  • OBTF SO W 1
  • Chart 2: Botswana and International Inflation 4
  • Chart 5: Household and Business Credit Six-month Growth Rates 6
  • Chart 6: Interest Rates (January 2008 - June 2010) 7
  • Monetary Policy Implementation in the First Half of 2010 7
  • Chart 7: Real Interest Rates - International 7
  • Chart 8: Global Output Forecasts (2009 - 2011) 9
  • Chart 11: Real Monetary Conditions Index (RMCI) (March 2010 - June 2012) 11
  • Chart A1: GDP Growth in Selected Advanced Countries 12
  • Chart A5: Global Output Forecasts (2008 - 2010) 13
  • Chart A6: Export, Import and GDP Quarterly Growth Estimates and Forecasts for
  • Developed Economies 13
  • Date of Forecast 13

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