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Rice Industry in Laos

Lao People's Democratic Republic: Responding to Rice Price Inflation

  • August 2011
  • 57 pages

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  • Segment Coverage

    Cereal Based Produ...  

    Pasta, Noodles And...  

    Rice  

  • Geographic Coverage

    Laos  

    Thailand  

    Asia  

    Vietnam  

    World  

  • Type of data

    Price Trends  

    Economic Indicator...  

    Supply  

  • Lao People's Democratic Republic: responding to rice price inflation 1
  • CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS 4
  • GOVERNMENT FISCAL YEAR 4
  • WEIGHTS AND MEASURES 4
  • Tables 6
  • Figures 6
  • Maps 6
  • Boxes 6
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 7
  • EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 14
  • 1. BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE 17
  • 2. THE RICE SECTOR IN LAOS 17
  • Mixed evidence on market integration 21
  • 3. RECENT FOOD AND RICE PRICE TRENDS 21
  • Box 1: Rice and trade in the 2006-2008 and current food crisis 23
  • Small impact of international food crises on Lao prices 24
  • Glutinous rice changes differs substantially from ordinary rice 26
  • Macroeconomic impacts of rice inflation are small but need monitoring 30
  • Seasonality effects re existent but of small m gnitude 32
  • Past supply shocks do not show strong correlation with rice prices 33
  • Increased demand over the past decade does not explain fluctuations 34
  • Monetary policy does not explain sudden price jumps 34
  • Hoarding and speculation are unlikely 35
  • Market information suggests large commercial exports to Vietnam 36
  • Map 2: Rice price inflation is highest in producing areas that also trade with
  • Vietnam and Thailand 37
  • Map 3: Paddy price inflation is highest in areas that trade with Thailand 40
  • 6. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 44
  • Overview of rice sector studies 48
  • TECHNICAL ANNEX 48
  • Data sources 48
  • Asymmetric rice price transmission between Laos and Thailand 51
  • Volatility analysis between Lao and Thai rice prices 52
  • REFERENCES 54
  • Table 1: Approximate welfare impacts suggest negative effects of rice price 6
  • Figure 1: Rice production increased and is dominated by lowland rain-fed paddy 18
  • Map 1: Income from rice production is concentrated in the Central and Southern
  • regions 19
  • Figure 2: World food prices are high but rice did not increase as much as in
  • 2008 22
  • Figure 3: World food prices slowly transmit into Lao food prices 24
  • Figure 4: Glutinous rice prices drive food prices and overall inflation 25
  • Figure 5: Thai export prices differ for glutinous and ordinary rice 26
  • Figure 6: Lao glutinous rice inflation in real terms reaches a decade-high in
  • mid-2010 27
  • Figure 7: Lao and Thai ordinary rice prices only increased moderately 28
  • Figure 8: Swings in glutinous rice prices in real terms last for years and are
  • not 29
  • Figure 9: Regional paddy price trends follow each other 30
  • Table 1: Approximate welfare impacts suggest negative effects of rice price 31
  • Figure 10: Glutinous rice trade to Vietnam is associated with price jumps 36
  • Figure 11: Proximity to Thai border results in higher paddy price inflation 38
  • Figure 12: Lao glutinous paddy is competitive 41
  • Figure 13: Lao and Thai glutinous rice prices share the same long-run trend 42
  • Figure 14: Short-run correlation between Thai and Lao glutinous rice prices
  • varies 43
  • Table 2: First-order household welfare impacts of rice inflation 49
  • Table 3: Transmission of glutinous rice prices between Laos and Thailand 50
  • Figure 15: Monthly time variation in conditional correlation and volatility
  • between 52

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