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Steel Sales Demand in Brazil - Forecast

Steel Monitor

  • October 2011
  • 11 pages

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  • Segment Coverage

    Metal Manufacturin...  

    Metal Mining  

    Steel  

    Metal And Mineral  

    Building Material  

    Metal Material  

  • Geographic Coverage

    Brazil  

    World  

  • Type of data

    Demand  

    Forecast  

    Supply  

  • Steel monitor 1
  • BRAZIL 1
  • MINING & STEEL 1
  • Disappointing figures in Sep/11 + potential disruption in coking coal supply in
  • 2012 1
  • Flat steel inventories close to normal levels but imports remain a threat 1
  • We remain bearish on flats; Usiminas is our least preferred stock 1
  • Despite poor figures in Sep/11, longs demand should be boosted in 2012 1
  • Iron ore prices down, but coking coal up: margins squeezed.again 2
  • China steel output lower in Sep/11 MoM but flat on a daily basis 2
  • Brazilian Steel Data 3
  • FLAT: - 8.3% LONG: + 2.8 % SEMI FINISHED: - 4.2% 3
  • FLAT: - 2.7% Long: - 3.1% 3
  • FLAT: + 0.4% Long: - 21.1% 4
  • World Steel Data 4
  • INVENTORIES: - 6.9, 2.7 MONTHS 4
  • R$ 18.2 1
  • Net price 2
  • TABLE 2: DOMESTIC SALES - FLAT STEEL ('000 TONS) 3
  • TABLE 3: DOMESTIC SALES - LONG STEEL ('000 TONS) 3
  • Total 3
  • TABLE 1: STEEL IN BRAZIL - SEPT 2011 PERFORMANCE 3
  • TABLE 4: APPARENT CONSUMPTION - FLAT STEEL ('000 TONS) 4
  • TABLE 5: APPARENT CONSUMPTION - LONG STEEL ('000 TONS) 4
  • TABLE 6: DOMESTIC SALES AS A % OF TOTAL SALES - FLAT STEEL 4
  • TABLE 7: DOMESTIC SALES AS A % OF TOTAL SALES - LONG STEEL 4
  • TABLE 8: FLAT STEEL DISTRIBUTORS' INVENTORIES 4
  • TABLE 10: CRUDE STEEL PRODUCTION PER REGION ('000 TONS) Aug/11 5
  • TABLE 9: WORLD CRUDE STEEL PRODUCTION ('000 TONS) 5
  • TABLE 11: TOTAL 6
  • TABLE 12: TOTAL EX-CHINA 6
  • TABLE 13: CHINA 6
  • TABLE 14: BRAZIL 6
  • TABLE 15: WORLD STEEL CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE 6
  • Vale ON spread over Vale PN 7
  • Vale PN spread over Bradespar PN 7
  • CSN ON spread over Gerdau PN 7
  • Gerdau PN spread over Met. Gerdau PN 7
  • Usiminas PN spread over Gerdau PN 7
  • Usiminas ON spread over Usiminas PN 7
  • Ratings Distribution 8

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