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Vegetable Industry in Trinidad and Tobago

An Assessment of the Economic Impact of Climate Change on the Agriculture Sector in Trinidad and Tobago

  • October 2011
  • 78 pages

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  • Segment Coverage

    Agriculture  

    Food  

    Agribusiness  

    Fruit And Vegetabl...  

    Vegetable  

  • Geographic Coverage

    Trinidad And Tobag...  

    North America  

  • AN ASSESSMENT OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR
  • IN TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO 1
  • This document has been reproduced without formal editing 1
  • LIST OF TABLES 4
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENT 7
  • EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 8
  • I. INTRODUCTION 10
  • A. OBJECTIVES 11
  • B. THE ECONOMY OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO 11
  • Source: Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago (1999, 2000, 2007) 12
  • C. TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO'S AGRICULTURAL SECTOR PERFORMANCE 13
  • Source: Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago (1999, 2000, 2007) 14
  • Source: Ministry of Food Production, Lands and Marine Resources, Agriculture
  • Report 2008. 16
  • Source: Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago (1999, 2000, 2007) 16
  • Source: GORTT, CSO (2005), figure 1 17
  • Source: GORTT, CSO (2005), Map 1 18
  • Source: GORTT, CSO (2005), Map 2 18
  • SOURCE: GORTT, CSO (2005) 19
  • D. PHYSICAL AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC VULNERABILITIES OF THE CARIBBEAN 20
  • 1. LAND CAPABILITY 20
  • Source: (GORTT, Ministry of Agriculture and UWI 1972 21
  • II. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURE 24
  • Source: Iglesias and others (2009) 24
  • BOX 1: CROP RESPONSES TO CHANGING CLIMATE 25
  • CROP RESPONSES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE REFLECT THE INTERPLAY AMONG THREE FACTORS:
  • RISING TEMPERATURES, CHANGING WATER RESOURCES, AND INCREASING CARBON DIOXIDE
  • CONCENTRATIONS. 25
  • Source: U.S. Global Change Research Program (2009) 25
  • III. LITERATURE REVIEW 25
  • A. MODELS 25
  • PANEL/FIXED EFFECTS MODELS 27
  • AGRONOMIC-ECONOMIC CROP MODELS 27
  • CROP PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS 28
  • SUMMARY 29
  • 2. ROOT CROP AND VEGETABLE DATA 30
  • B. DATA 30
  • 1. CLIMATE DATA 30
  • 3. COCOA 31
  • 4. FISHERIES 31
  • A. MODELS 32
  • IV. METHODOLOGY 32
  • B. RESULTS AND FORECASTS 33
  • 1. KEY MODEL VARIABLES 33
  • Source: Central Bank 34
  • 2. BASELINE CASE 36
  • 3. A2 AND B2 SCENARIOS 38
  • Q,rain= -0.138; Q,temp= -3.78. 40
  • Bias Proportion Variance Proportion Covariance Proportion 42
  • Source: Author's compilation 43
  • *This shows the cumulative loss from 2011 up to each specified year. 44
  • Source: Pauly (2010), figure 3 45
  • *statistically significant at the 1% level **statistically significant at the 5%
  • level and ***statistically significant at the 10% level. 46
  • Q,rain=0.0706; Q,temp=1.1474 46
  • AR Root(s) 48
  • No root lies outside the unit circle. ARMA model is stationary. 48
  • MA Root(s) 48
  • No root lies outside the unit circle. ARMA model is invertible. 48
  • Modulus 48
  • Cycle 48
  • Sample: 1995M01 2008M12 Included observations: 166 48
  • Bias Proportion Variance Proportion Covariance Proportion 48
  • *This shows the cumulative loss (gains are negative) up to each specified year.
  • Source: Author's compilation. 50
  • C. AGGREGATE VALUE OF YIELD LOSS FOR ROOT CROPS, FISHERIES AND VEGETABLE
  • PRODUCTION 50
  • *Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago (2009). Source: Author's compilation 51
  • D. POTENTIAL LAND LOSS 51
  • IV. ADAPTATION OPTIONS AND BENEFIT COST ANALYSES 54
  • VI. CONSIDERATIONS FOR MITIGATION OPTIONS 61
  • A. EMISSIONS 61
  • Source: UN Statistical Division 61
  • Saint Lucia 61
  • St. Vincent and the Grenadines 61
  • Trinidad and Tobago 61
  • United Kingdom 61
  • United States 61
  • mio. tonnes 61
  • 18.1 Source: UN Statistics Division. 61
  • tonnes 61
  • B. LAND LOSS DUE TO FOREST FIRES 62
  • 9 US$1=TT$6.48 62
  • C. CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE IMPLICATIONS FOR FOOD SECURITY 63
  • D. DATA NEEDS FOR FUTURE WORK 63
  • VII. CONCLUSIONS 64
  • REFERENCES 66
  • APPENDIX 1: OVERVIEW OF FISHERIES LANDINGS, 1996 - 2008 72
  • APPENDIX 2: OPTIMAL CLIMATE RANGES OF SELECTED VEGETABLES AND ROOT CROPS 73
  • APPENDIX 3: RESULTS OF COCOA MODEL 74
  • (High/Yes=5; Medium=3;Low/No=1) 75
  • TABLE 1: REAL GDP GROWTH RATE OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO 12
  • Figure 1: Real GDP Growth Rate of Trinidad and Tobago (%) 12
  • Figure 2: Real GDP (at Factor Cost) of Trinidad and Tobago 12
  • TABLE 2: REAL GDP GROWTH RATE OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO 13
  • Figure 3: Inflation Rate in Trinidad and Tobago (%) 13
  • Figure 4: Agricultural GDP and Associated Growth Rate for Trinidad and Tobago 14
  • Figure 5: Percentage Contribution to GDP by Sector in Trinidad and Tobago, 1997 14
  • TABLE 3: AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST LAND AREA (1000 HECTARES) AND TRACTOR USE,
  • SELECTED YEARS 15
  • FIGURE 6: PERCENTAGE CONTRIBUTION TO GDP BY SECTOR IN TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO, 2009 15
  • Table 4: Key Components of Agricultural GDP 16
  • Figure 7: Key Commodities - 2008 (Contribution to Domestic Agriculture) 16
  • Figure 8: Holders in Trinidad and Tobago by Type of Agricultural Activity 17
  • Figure 9: Distribution of Holders by Type of Agricultural Activity and Parishes
  • in Trinidad 18
  • Figure 10: Distribution of Holders by Type of Agricultural Activity and Parishes
  • in Tobago 18
  • FIGURE 11: DISTRIBUTION OF HOLDERS BY TYPE OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION (A) IN
  • TRINIDAD AND (B)TOBAGO 19
  • Figure 12: Distribution of Holders by Size in Trinidad and Tobago, 2004 19
  • Figure 13: Distribution of Holders by Age Group in Trinidad and Tobago, 2004 20
  • Figure 14: Land Utilized for Agriculture in Trinidad 21
  • FIGURE 15: LAND CAPABILITY OF TRINIDAD 23
  • Table 5: Climate Change and Related Factors Relevant to Agricultural Production
  • at the Global 24
  • TABLE 6: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS OF MODEL VARIABLES 33
  • FIGURE 16: HISTORICAL MEAN MONTHLY RAINFALL - TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO (1970-2008)
  • (MM) 34
  • Figure 17: Historical Mean Monthly Temperature - Trinidad and Tobago (1970-2008)
  • ( C) 34
  • FIGURE 18: MONTHLY VALUES OF MODEL VARIABLES (IN LEVELS) FROM 1995-2008 35
  • AVEG 35
  • RAINTT 35
  • TEM PT T 35
  • LASQIND 35
  • PIM Q 35
  • TABLE 7: ESTIMATED TOTAL ANNUAL VALUE (MILLIONS TT$) OF FISH LANDINGS FOR
  • TRINIDAD FROM 2001- 2008 37
  • Figure 20: Historical and Projected Mean Monthly Rainfall - Trinidad & Tobago
  • for the A2 and 38
  • Source: Author's compilation 39
  • TABLE 9: HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED MEAN MONTHLY TEMPERATURE - TRINIDAD & TOBAGO
  • FOR THE A2 AND B2 SCENARIOS, BY SEASON 39
  • Figure 21: Historical and Projected Mean Monthly Temperature - Trinidad & Tobago
  • for the A2 39
  • TABLE 10: HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED MEAN MONTHLY RAINFALL - TRINIDAD & TOBAGO FOR
  • THE A2 AND B2 SCENARIOS, BY SEASON 40
  • Table 11: Model Estimates for Root Crop Yield (RC) 40
  • TABLE 13: RESULTS OF UNIT ROOT TESTS FOR LOGGED MODEL VARIABLES 41
  • Table 12: Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test for the Root Crops Model 41
  • FIGURE 22: FORECASTED HARVEST OF ROOT CROPS UNDER THE BUSINESS AS USUAL
  • SCENARIO, 1996-2050 ('000 KG) 42
  • Table 14: Inverse Roots of AR/MA Polynomial(s) for the Root Crops Model 42
  • Figure 23: Projections for Root Crop Harvests under the BAU, A2 and B2 Scenarios
  • ('000 kg) 43
  • Figure 24: Cumulative Values of Root Crop Production 43
  • TABLE 15: PRESENT VALUE OF ROOT CROP CUMULATIVE LOSSES RELATIVE TO THE BASELINE*
  • (TT $MIL) 44
  • TABLE 16: SIC VALUES OF ARMA VARIATIONS OF THE BASIC COCOA MODEL 44
  • Figure 25: Predicted Changes in Global Catch Potentials 45
  • TABLE 17: PRESENT VALUE OF CUMULATIVE LOSSES RELATIVE TO THE BASELINE (TT$MIL) 46
  • Table 18: Model Estimates for Green Vegetables 46
  • TABLE 20: RESULTS OF UNIT ROOT TESTS FOR LOGGED MODEL VARIABLES 47
  • Table 19: Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test for the Green Vegetables
  • Model 47
  • FIGURE 26: FORECASTED GREEN VEGETABLE HARVESTS UNDER THE BUSINESS AS USUAL
  • SCENARIO, 1996-2050 ('000 KG) 48
  • Table 21: Inverse Roots of AR/MA Polynomial(s) for the Green Vegetables Model 48
  • Figure 27: Projections for the Value of Vegetable Yield under the BAU, A2 and B2
  • Scenarios ('000 49
  • Figure 28: Cumulative Values of Root Crop Production 49
  • TABLE 22: PRESENT VALUE OF CUMULATIVE VEGETABLE LOSSES RELATIVE TO THE BASELINE
  • (TT $MIL) 50
  • TABLE 23: PRESENT VALUE OF CUMULATIVE LOSSES FOR AGRICULTURAL YIELD RELATIVE TO
  • THE BASELINE (TT $MIL) 50
  • Figure 29 shows the estimated agricultural land under the projected elevation
  • which corresponds to 51
  • Table 24: Estimate of the Cumulative Cost of the Impact of Climate Change (in
  • 2008 GDP* % of 51
  • Figure 29: Projected Agricultural Land and Wetlands under a 0.255 m Sea Level
  • Rise with 0.5m 52
  • Figure 30: Projected Land under a 0.255 m Sea Level Rise and High Rainfall
  • Intensity Event 53
  • Figure 31: Agricultural Land Zones Adjacent to the Caroni Swamp 53
  • TABLE 26: BREAKDOWN OF FOOD STORAGE COSTS 58
  • TABLE 27: GREENHOUSE INSTALLATION COSTS 60
  • Figure 32: Per-Capita CO Emissions for Selected Caribbean Countries, 2006 61
  • Table 28: CO Emissions in 2006 61
  • TABLE 29: NUMBER AND SIZE OF FIRES IN TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO, 2005 - 2009 62
  • Table 30: Estimated Total Annual Landings (tonnes) by Fleet from the Marine
  • Capture Fisheries of 72
  • TABLE 31: ROOT CROP AND VEGETABLE CLIMATE RANGES 73
  • Table 32: Cocoa Model 74
  • Table 33: Omitted Variables Tests 74
  • Table 34: Potential Risks and Adaptation Options 75
  • Table 35: Number of Fires and Area Burnt in Trinidad and Tobago, 2010 78

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