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Vegetable Industry in Trinidad and Tobago

An Assessment of the Economic Impact of Climate Change on the Agriculture Sector in Trinidad and Tobago

  • October 2011
  • 78 pages

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  • Segment Coverage

    Agriculture  

    Agribusiness  

    Fruit And Vegetabl...  

    Vegetable  

  • Geographic Coverage

    Trinidad And Tobag...  

    North America  

  • AN ASSESSMENT OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR
  • IN TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO 1
  • This document has been reproduced without formal editing 1
  • LIST OF TABLES 4
  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENT 7
  • EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 8
  • I. INTRODUCTION 10
  • A. OBJECTIVES 11
  • B. THE ECONOMY OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO 11
  • Source: Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago (1999, 2000, 2007) 12
  • C. TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO'S AGRICULTURAL SECTOR PERFORMANCE 13
  • Source: Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago (1999, 2000, 2007) 14
  • Source: Ministry of Food Production, Lands and Marine Resources, Agriculture
  • Report 2008. 16
  • Source: Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago (1999, 2000, 2007) 16
  • Source: GORTT, CSO (2005, figure 1 17
  • Source: GORTT, CSO (2005, Map 1 18
  • Source: GORTT, CSO (2005, Map 2 18
  • SOURCE: GORTT, CSO (2005) 19
  • D. PHYSICAL AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC VULNERABILITIES OF THE CARIBBEAN 20
  • 1. LAND CAPABILITY 20
  • Source: (GORTT, Ministry of Agriculture and UWI 1972 21
  • II. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURE 24
  • Source: Iglesias and others (2009) 24
  • BOX 1: CROP RESPONSES TO CHANGING CLIMATE 25
  • CROP RESPONSES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE REFLECT THE INTERPLAY AMONG THREE FACTORS:
  • RISING TEMPERATURES, CHANGING WATER RESOURCES, AND INCREASING CARBON DIOXIDE
  • CONCENTRATIONS. 25
  • Source: U.S. Global Change Research Program (2009) 25
  • III. LITERATURE REVIEW 25
  • A. MODELS 25
  • PANEL/FIXED EFFECTS MODELS 27
  • AGRONOMIC-ECONOMIC CROP MODELS 27
  • CROP PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS 28
  • SUMMARY 29
  • 2. ROOT CROP AND VEGETABLE DATA 30
  • B. DATA 30
  • 1. CLIMATE DATA 30
  • 3. COCOA 31
  • 4. FISHERIES 31
  • A. MODELS 32
  • IV. METHODOLOGY 32
  • B. RESULTS AND FORECASTS 33
  • 1. KEY MODEL VARIABLES 33
  • Source: Central Bank 34
  • 2. BASELINE CASE 36
  • 3. A2 AND B2 SCENARIOS 38
  • Q,rain= -0.138; Q,temp= -3.78. 40
  • Bias Proportion Variance Proportion Covariance Proportion 42
  • Source: Author's compilation 43
  • *This shows the cumulative loss from 2011 up to each specified year. 44
  • Source: Pauly (2010, figure 3 45
  • *statistically significant at the 1% level *statistically significant at the 5%
  • level and *statistically significant at the 10% level. 46
  • Q,rain=0.0706; Q,temp=1.1474 46
  • AR Root(s) 48
  • No root lies outside the unit circle. ARMA model is stationary. 48
  • MA Root(s) 48
  • No root lies outside the unit circle. ARMA model is invertible. 48
  • Modulus 48
  • Cycle 48
  • Sample: 1995M01 2008M12 Included observations: 166 48
  • Bias Proportion Variance Proportion Covariance Proportion 48
  • *This shows the cumulative loss (gains are negative) up to each specified year.
  • Source: Author's compilation. 50
  • C. AGGREGATE VALUE OF YIELD LOSS FOR ROOT CROPS, FISHERIES AND VEGETABLE
  • PRODUCTION 50
  • *Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago (2009. Source: Author's compilation 51
  • D. POTENTIAL LAND LOSS 51
  • IV. ADAPTATION OPTIONS AND BENEFIT COST ANALYSES 54
  • VI. CONSIDERATIONS FOR MITIGATION OPTIONS 61
  • A. EMISSIONS 61
  • Source: UN Statistical Division 61
  • Saint Lucia 61
  • St. Vincent and the Grenadines 61
  • Trinidad and Tobago 61
  • United Kingdom 61
  • United States 61
  • mio. tonnes 61
  • 18.1 Source: UN Statistics Division. 61
  • tonnes 61
  • B. LAND LOSS DUE TO FOREST FIRES 62
  • 9 US$1=TT$6.48 62
  • C. CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE IMPLICATIONS FOR FOOD SECURITY 63
  • D. DATA NEEDS FOR FUTURE WORK 63
  • VII. CONCLUSIONS 64
  • REFERENCES 66
  • APPENDIX 1: OVERVIEW OF FISHERIES LANDINGS, 1996 - 2008 72
  • APPENDIX 2: OPTIMAL CLIMATE RANGES OF SELECTED VEGETABLES AND ROOT CROPS 73
  • APPENDIX 3: RESULTS OF COCOA MODEL 74
  • (High/Yes=5; Medium=3;Low/No=1) 75
  • TABLE 1: REAL GDP GROWTH RATE OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO 12
  • FIGURE 1: REAL GDP GROWTH RATE OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO (%) 12
  • FIGURE 2: REAL GDP (AT FACTOR COST) OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO 12
  • TABLE 2: REAL GDP GROWTH RATE OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO 13
  • FIGURE 3: INFLATION RATE IN TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO (%) 13
  • FIGURE 4: AGRICULTURAL GDP AND ASSOCIATED GROWTH RATE FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO 14
  • FIGURE 5: PERCENTAGE CONTRIBUTION TO GDP BY SECTOR IN TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO, 1997 14
  • TABLE 3: AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST LAND AREA (1000 HECTARES) AND TRACTOR USE,
  • SELECTED YEARS 15
  • FIGURE 6: PERCENTAGE CONTRIBUTION TO GDP BY SECTOR IN TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO, 2009 15
  • TABLE 4: KEY COMPONENTS OF AGRICULTURAL GDP 16
  • FIGURE 7: KEY COMMODITIES - 2008 (CONTRIBUTION TO DOMESTIC AGRICULTURE) 16
  • FIGURE 8: HOLDERS IN TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO BY TYPE OF AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITY 17
  • FIGURE 9: DISTRIBUTION OF HOLDERS BY TYPE OF AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITY AND PARISHES
  • IN TRINIDAD 18
  • FIGURE 10: DISTRIBUTION OF HOLDERS BY TYPE OF AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITY AND PARISHES
  • IN TOBAGO 18
  • FIGURE 11: DISTRIBUTION OF HOLDERS BY TYPE OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION (A) IN
  • TRINIDAD AND (B)TOBAGO 19
  • FIGURE 12: DISTRIBUTION OF HOLDERS BY SIZE IN TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO, 2004 19
  • FIGURE 13: DISTRIBUTION OF HOLDERS BY AGE GROUP IN TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO, 2004 20
  • FIGURE 14: LAND UTILIZED FOR AGRICULTURE IN TRINIDAD 21
  • FIGURE 15: LAND CAPABILITY OF TRINIDAD 23
  • TABLE 5: CLIMATE CHANGE AND RELATED FACTORS RELEVANT TO AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
  • AT THE GLOBAL SCALE 24
  • TABLE 6: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS OF MODEL VARIABLES 33
  • FIGURE 16: HISTORICAL MEAN MONTHLY RAINFALL - TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO (1970-2008)
  • (MM) 34
  • FIGURE 17: HISTORICAL MEAN MONTHLY TEMPERATURE - TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO (1970-2008)
  • ( C) 34
  • FIGURE 18: MONTHLY VALUES OF MODEL VARIABLES (IN LEVELS) FROM 1995-2008 35
  • AVEG 35
  • RAINTT 35
  • TEM PT T 35
  • LASQIND 35
  • PIM Q 35
  • TABLE 7: ESTIMATED TOTAL ANNUAL VALUE (MILLIONS TT$) OF FISH LANDINGS FOR
  • TRINIDAD FROM 2001- 2008 37
  • FIGURE 20: HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED MEAN MONTHLY RAINFALL - TRINIDAD & TOBAGO
  • FOR THE A2 AND B2 SCENARIOS 38
  • Source: Author's compilation 39
  • TABLE 9: HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED MEAN MONTHLY TEMPERATURE - TRINIDAD & TOBAGO
  • FOR THE A2 AND B2 SCENARIOS, BY SEASON 39
  • FIGURE 21: HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED MEAN MONTHLY TEMPERATURE - TRINIDAD & TOBAGO
  • FOR THE A2 AND B2 SCENARIOS 39
  • TABLE 10: HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED MEAN MONTHLY RAINFALL - TRINIDAD & TOBAGO FOR
  • THE A2 AND B2 SCENARIOS, BY SEASON 40
  • TABLE 11: MODEL ESTIMATES FOR ROOT CROP YIELD (RC) 40
  • TABLE 13: RESULTS OF UNIT ROOT TESTS FOR LOGGED MODEL VARIABLES 41
  • TABLE 12: BREUSCH-GODFREY SERIAL CORRELATION LM TEST FOR THE ROOT CROPS MODEL 41
  • FIGURE 22: FORECASTED HARVEST OF ROOT CROPS UNDER THE BUSINESS AS USUAL
  • SCENARIO, 1996-2050 ('000 KG) 42
  • TABLE 14: INVERSE ROOTS OF AR/MA POLYNOMIAL(S) FOR THE ROOT CROPS MODEL 42
  • FIGURE 23: PROJECTIONS FOR ROOT CROP HARVESTS UNDER THE BAU, A2 AND B2 SCENARIOS
  • ('000 KG) 43
  • FIGURE 24: CUMULATIVE VALUES OF ROOT CROP PRODUCTION 43
  • TABLE 15: PRESENT VALUE OF ROOT CROP CUMULATIVE LOSSES RELATIVE TO THE BASELINE*
  • (TT $MIL) 44
  • TABLE 16: SIC VALUES OF ARMA VARIATIONS OF THE BASIC COCOA MODEL 44
  • FIGURE 25: PREDICTED CHANGES IN GLOBAL CATCH POTENTIALS 45
  • TABLE 17: PRESENT VALUE OF CUMULATIVE LOSSES RELATIVE TO THE BASELINE (TT$MIL) 46
  • TABLE 18: MODEL ESTIMATES FOR GREEN VEGETABLES 46
  • TABLE 20: RESULTS OF UNIT ROOT TESTS FOR LOGGED MODEL VARIABLES 47
  • TABLE 19: BREUSCH-GODFREY SERIAL CORRELATION LM TEST FOR THE GREEN VEGETABLES
  • MODEL 47
  • FIGURE 26: FORECASTED GREEN VEGETABLE HARVESTS UNDER THE BUSINESS AS USUAL
  • SCENARIO, 1996-2050 ('000 KG) 48
  • TABLE 21: INVERSE ROOTS OF AR/MA POLYNOMIAL(S) FOR THE GREEN VEGETABLES MODEL 48
  • FIGURE 27: PROJECTIONS FOR THE VALUE OF VEGETABLE YIELD UNDER THE BAU, A2 AND B2
  • SCENARIOS ('000 TT$) 49
  • FIGURE 28: CUMULATIVE VALUES OF ROOT CROP PRODUCTION 49
  • TABLE 22: PRESENT VALUE OF CUMULATIVE VEGETABLE LOSSES RELATIVE TO THE BASELINE
  • (TT $MIL) 50
  • TABLE 23: PRESENT VALUE OF CUMULATIVE LOSSES FOR AGRICULTURAL YIELD RELATIVE TO
  • THE BASELINE (TT $MIL) 50
  • FIGURE 30: PROJECTED LAND UNDER A 0.255 M SEA LEVEL RISE AND HIGH RAINFALL
  • INTENSITY EVENT 53
  • FIGURE 31: AGRICULTURAL LAND ZONES ADJACENT TO THE CARONI SWAMP 53
  • TABLE 26: BREAKDOWN OF FOOD STORAGE COSTS 58
  • TABLE 27: GREENHOUSE INSTALLATION COSTS 60
  • FIGURE 32: PER-CAPITA CO EMISSIONS FOR SELECTED CARIBBEAN COUNTRIES, 2006 61
  • TABLE 28: CO EMISSIONS IN 2006 61
  • TABLE 29: NUMBER AND SIZE OF FIRES IN TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO, 2005 - 2009 62
  • TABLE 31: ROOT CROP AND VEGETABLE CLIMATE RANGES 73
  • TABLE 32: COCOA MODEL 74
  • TABLE 33: OMITTED VARIABLES TESTS 74
  • TABLE 34: POTENTIAL RISKS AND ADAPTATION OPTIONS 75
  • Table 35: Number of Fires and Area Burnt in Trinidad and Tobago, 2010 78

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