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Electricity Generation Industry in South Korea - Forecast

Power Industry

  • August 2012
  • 52 pages

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  • Segment Coverage

    Electric Power Ene...  

    Electricity Genera...  

    Electricity  

    Energy  

  • Geographic Coverage

    South Korea  

    Asia  

  • Type of data

    Supply  

    Forecast  

    Demand  

    Company Financials  

  • POWER INDUSTRY 1
  • Industry Analysis 1
  • I. SUMMARY 3
  • DOMESTIC POWER-RELATED MARKET COMPOSED OF ELECTRICITY GENERATING COMPANIES,
  • POWER EQUIPMENT PROVIDERS, AND POWER PLANT CONSTRUCTORS 5
  • II. POWER SHORTAGES TO PERSIST OVER LONG TERM 7
  • NEW POWER PLANT CAPACITY FAILS TO KEEP UP WITH DEMAND FOR ELECTRICITY (HIGHER
  • THAN EXPECTED) 8
  • NEED TO CONTROL SHORT-TERM DEMAND VIA TARIFF ADJUSTMENTS 10
  • LNG POWER GENERATION TO GROW IN ORDER TO RAISE NEAR-TERM SUPPLY 12
  • III. ELECTRICITY PORTION GENERATED BY IPPS GROWING 13
  • IPPS' ENTRY INTO COAL-BASED POWER GENERATION 15
  • IV. POWER PLANT EPC MARKET-NEW DRIVER FOR CONSTRUCTION FIRMS 16
  • POWER PLANT CONSTRUCTION STALLED, BUT CANNOT BE PUT OFF ANY LONGER 16
  • 6THLPDP-POWER PLANT INVESTMENT SET TO SURGE 18
  • HYUNDAI E&C, DAELIM IND, AND SAMSUNG C&T BOAST SOLID TRACK RECORDS IN
  • CONSTRUCTING POWER PLANTS 20
  • OVERSEAS POWER PLANT MARKET GROWING RAPIDLY-BECOMING A FLAGSHIP MARKET FOR
  • KOREAN EPC COMPANIES 22
  • V. POWER EQUIPMENT MARKET LED BY SMALL NUMBER OF COMPANIES 24
  • MONOPOLY IN KOREA'S CORE EQUIPMENT MARKET (BOILERS, TURBINES, GENERATORS) 24
  • KOREA'S MAJOR EQUIPMENT SUPPLIERS' GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS TO STRENGTHEN 27
  • SK HOLDINGS (.KS) 28
  • Structural growth underway at promising private power generation player SK E&S 28
  • I. REVISE UP RATING TO BUY AND TARGET PRICE TO W209,000 29
  • II. SK E&S: STRUCTURAL GROWTH UNDERWAY 30
  • III. SK HOLDINGS OFFERS AN ATTRACTIVE INVESTMENT VEHICLE WHEREBY TO BENEFIT FROM
  • LIKELY CONTINUED GROWTH AT SK E&S 32
  • DAELIM IND (.KS) 33
  • Hidden gem of power plant EPC market 33
  • I. GRADUAL RE-RATING EXPECTED 34
  • II. TO EMERGE AS STRONG EPC PLAYER 36
  • HYUNDAI E&C (.KS) 38
  • Focus more on order momentum than earnings momentum in 2012 38
  • DOOSAN HEAVY I&C (.KS) 41
  • Only domestic player specializing in supply of power equipment 41
  • LSIS (.KS) 44
  • To benefit from T&D network expansion 44
  • BHI (.KQ) 47
  • HRSG market leader to enter into boiler market 47
  • SEENTEC (.KQ) 49
  • Leader in mid- to large-sized boiler market 49
  • Industry Analysis 1
  • Main businesses 1
  • Short-term and long-term solutions to deepening power shortages, and expected
  • beneficiaries 4
  • System marginal pricing 6
  • Annual power supply-demand trend: Even when considering the construction of
  • scheduled power plants, power shortages to continue 7
  • Over last three years, electricity consumption growth outpaced power plant
  • capacity growth 8
  • GDP elasticity of electricity consumption: Korea vs. other countries 8
  • Electricity demand growth projections (estimate vs. actual) by LPDP: Forecasts
  • lower than actual growth 8
  • Contingency measures: Power plants that can be built quickly and power plants
  • whose life can be extended 9
  • Capacity of delayed power plant construction to surge in 2012 9
  • Electricity tariff hike falls short of that required 10
  • Per capita power consumption by country: Korea's consumption continues to grow 11
  • KEPCO's CAPEX and EBITDA: EBITDA lower than CAPEX 11
  • Insufficient tariff hikes lead to higher debt levels 11
  • LNG power plant utilization rates rise sharply due to power shortages 12
  • Nuclear power plant utilization rates fall sharply due to longer repair period
  • and public opposition 12
  • Korea's LNG power generation: up sharply from 2010 12
  • Major IPPs: Most powered by LNG 13
  • Domestic power capacity: IPPs' portion at 14.3% 13
  • Operating profit at IPPs continues increasing 14
  • Operating margin at IPPs higher than that at KEPCO 14
  • KDHC: Operating profit from electricity sales rising 14
  • 66% of IPPs use LNG 15
  • Coal-based generation: 13 companies competing for approval 15
  • Power plant construction plans by IPPs: Only 5 out of 14 projects have begun 16
  • Power plant construction plans: IPPs' power plant projects that have been put
  • off 17
  • Domestic power plant orders 19
  • Domestic construction orders 19
  • Construction track record by power plant type: Hyundai E&C and Daelim Ind have
  • most experience 20
  • Daelim Ind and Hyundai E&C: Largest market share of domestic power plant orders 21
  • Overseas power plant orders increasing 22
  • Portion of power plant orders accounts for more than 30% of total overseas
  • orders 22
  • Global market share (power sector): Korean companies nearing double-digits 23
  • Middle East power plant order forecasts: Orders sharply increasing since 2009 23
  • Saudi 23
  • UAE 23
  • Coal-based power plant equipment market: Competition centers on
  • boiler/turbine/generator companies 24
  • Competition in CCPP equipment market(especially in HRSG) heating up on entry of
  • new plays 24
  • Equipment producers: DHIC maintains monopoly in most power equipment domains 25
  • Growth of generating capacity pa: Construction of larger-sized power plants to
  • lead to oligopolization of market 26
  • Thermal power plant construction cost breakdown: Boilers accounts for largest
  • portion (among equipment) 26
  • CCPP construction cost breakdown: Gas/steam turbines account for 40% of total
  • cost 26
  • Global and Korean power equipment players: Power plant-related sales portion is
  • higher at Korean companies 27
  • Global market share breakdown by product: Korean companies boast strong
  • competitiveness 27
  • Share performance (%) 28
  • target price from W162,000 to W209,000. 28
  • SK E&S's power business utilization rate and SMP forecasts 30
  • SK E&S's fuel purchase costs are much lower vs peers 31
  • Power generation capacity expansion plan: Total of 3.5GW to be secured by 2015 31
  • SK E&S earnings forecasts: To see operating profit CAGR of 16.5% on strong power
  • business growth 31
  • Note: 2011 based on the combined earnings of SK E&S's power business and K- 31
  • NAV contribution breakdown: SK E&S's contribution at 24% 32
  • SK Holdings' dividend and brand royalty revenue forecasts: Contribution from SK
  • E&S to rise 32
  • SK Innovation's NAV contribution and correlation with SK Holdings shares have
  • been declining since early-2012 32
  • Share performance (%) 33
  • 2010~2014 sales and operating margins 34
  • Overseas sales contribution, by company 35
  • EBT contribution, by business domain 35
  • Yearly overseas orders and share price 35
  • Pre-tax profit and share price 35
  • Overseas gross profit margin: Comparison with peers 35
  • Daelim Ind's capability as IPP developer 36
  • Daelim Ind's power plant projects 37
  • Jamaica 37
  • To benefit from overseas infrastructure market growth 38
  • Sales and operating margin forecasts (2010~2014) 39
  • Track record of Hyundai E&C's power plant construction projects 39
  • Portion of power plant orders/overseas orders 39
  • Iraq 40
  • Power division to continue to generate high margins in 2H12 41
  • Thermal power plant orders to gradually increase in response to power shortages 42
  • Power division represents strongest contributor to sales and operating margin 42
  • Doosan Heavy I&C 43
  • Core equipment supply track record: To maintain dominant status as supplier of
  • large-sized, high value-added core equipment 43
  • Electric power business to post steep sales growth 45
  • POWER-RELATED DOMAINS MAKING STRONG SALES AND EARNINGS CONTRIBUTIONS 45
  • In line with rising domestic power generation capacity, T&D facility to expand 46
  • Transformer demand also rising 46
  • Major shareholders 47
  • Earnings improve from bottom up 48
  • Growing power generation demand leading to orders growth 48
  • Major shareholders Hansol EME and others 49
  • Seentec 50
  • Target price 51
  • (won) 51
  • (won) 52

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