Ukrainian Dairy: New export opportunities
Last week, thirty one Ukrainian dairy producers underwent inspections by Russian authorities, with a view to resuming exports. At the same time, by July 4, some dairy makers were also checked out by EU experts, for the same purpose. We see the emergence of new export opportunities as an additional industry driver in the mid-term. Meanwhile, we revise our pro forma projections for Ukraine’s public dairy makers upward on strong 1Q08 results and upgrade our DCF-based targets for their share prices.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Exports to Russia poised to expand in the near term
Dairy shipments to the EU are becoming a real mid-term opportunity
Valuation summary
Significant revenue increase in 1Q08
Forecast revision
Valuation update
Appendix A: DCF Valuation
Galakton
Key forecast revisions- table
DCF model as of July 21 - table
Sensitivity analysis - table
Kovelmoloko
Key forecast revisions - table
DCF model as of July 21 - table
Sensitivity analysis - table
Shostka Milk
Key forecast revisions - table
DCF model as of July 21 - table
Sensitivity analysis - table
Ukrproduct
Key forecast revisions - table
DCF model as of July 21 - table
Sensitivity analysis - table
Zhytomyr Dairy
Key forecast revisions - table
DCF model as of July 21 - table
Sensitivity analysis - table
Appendix B: Relative valuation
Appendix C: Financial statements
Galakton
Income statement summary, USD mln
Balance sheet summary, USD mln
Cash flow statement summary, USD mln
UAH/USD Exchange rates
Kovelmoloko
Income statement summary, USD mln
Balance sheet summary, USD mln
Cash flow statement summary, USD mln
UAH/USD Exchange rates
Shostka Milk
Income statement summary, USD mln
Balance sheet summary, USD mln
Cash flow statement summary, USD mln
UAH/USD Exchange rates
Ukrproduct
Income statement summary, USD mln
Balance sheet summary, USD mln
Cash flow statement summary, USD mln
UAH/USD Exchange rates
Zhytomyr Dairy
Income statement summary, USD mln
Balance sheet summary, USD mln
Cash flow statement summary, USD mln
UAH/USD Exchange rates
Appendix D: Quarterly analysis*
Galakton
Kovelmoloko
Shostka Milk
Ukrproduct
Zhytomyr Dairy
Appendix E: Stock monitor
Galakton
Kovelmoloko
Shostka Milk
Ukrproduct
Zhytomyr Dairy
Appendix F: International trade in dairy products
International net exporters (+), net importers (-) of dairy, ths mt in 2007 - chart
Ukrainian producers exporting dairy products to Russia - table
