Forecast Insight: Antithrombotics - Market growth dependent on new agents

Forecast Insight: Antithrombotics - Market growth dependent on new agents

Introduction

The antithrombotic market is expected to grow to $22 billion by 2017. The growth will mainly be due to the introduction of new agents onto the market, such as prasugrel and rivaroxaban, which will offer significant improvements over the current standards of care (Plavix (clopidogrel) and warfarin, respectively).

Scope

*Description of the competitive landscape in antithrombotics across seven major markets with market definition and overview.

*Event-driven updated sales forecasts for 2008-17 across the seven major markets: US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK and Japan.

*Analysis of major events and brand dynamics affecting the antithrombotics market.

Highlights

The antithrombotic market is demonstrating steady growth with CAGR of 8% over the 2004-07 period. The growth can be mainly attributed to the increased uptake of Plavix (clopidogrel) and Lovenox (enoxaparin) in all of the seven major markets.

The US antithrombotic market's share among the seven major markets is forecast to decrease, from 55% in 2007 to 49% in 2017, due to the 5EU volume sales being largest and the patent expiries in the EU not affecting the brand sales to the same extent as in the US.

New agents (especially rivaroxaban and prasugrel) will be successful at gaining a large share of the antithrombotic market, as they offer significant improvements over the current standards of care. In fact, two of the top three revenue-generating antithrombotics are forecast to be agents currently in development.

Reasons to Purchase

*Quantify the future size and understand the background of the antithrombotics market

*Understand the commercial landscape in terms of new product potential

*Understand the barriers to uptake for novel antidyslipidemics.

ABOUT DATAMONITOR HEALTHCARE 2
About the cardiovascular pharmaceutical analysis team 2
CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3
Strategic scoping and focus 3
Datamonitor insight into the disease market 3
Related reports 4
Upcoming related reports 4
CHAPTER 2 MARKET DEFINITION AND OVERVIEW 6
Market definition for this report 6
Countries and regions included in this report 7
Seven major market assessment 8
Current and future market overview 8
The US market still remains the leader, but is slowly losing its dominance in the seven major markets 17
ADP receptor antagonists and fractionated heparins led the market to 2007 but they will be overtaken by the pipeline agents by 2017 19
Of the current top three revenue-generating brands only Lovenox will keep its position till 2017 22
Rest of the world snapshot 27
CHAPTER 3 BRAND DYNAMICS 30
Overview of competitive landscape 30
Plavix (clopidogrel; Sanofi-Aventis) 31
Plavix will not keep its current market domination till 2017 32
Plavix - the first sign of generic battles getting tough on the EU front? 35
Lovenox (enoxaparin; Sanofi-Aventis) 38
Lovenox will stay at the top despite the numerous challenges ahead 39
Effient (prasugrel hydrochloride; Daiichi Sankyo and Eli Lilly) 43
Xarelto (rivaroxaban; Bayer and Ortho-McNeil Pharmaceutical) 50
Apixaban (BMS-562247; BMS and Pfizer) 55
Pradaxa/Rendix (dabigatran; Boehringer Ingelheim) 59
BIBLIOGRAPHY 64
Journal papers 64
Websites 64
APPENDIX A - MARKET ASSUMPTIONS 66
Data definitions, limitations and assumptions 66
Standard units 66
Japanese market data 66
Derivation of sales forecasts and pricing trends 66
Forecast methodology 67
APPENDIX B 68
Contributing experts 68
Report methodology 68
About Datamonitor 68
About Datamonitor Healthcare 68
About the Disease analysis team 69
Disclaimer 71
List of Tables
Table 1: Key events impacting the anticoagulant market, 2003-2017 12
Table 2: Launch dates for new antithrombotic agents in the 5EU, 2008-2017 13
Table 3: Launches in the US, 2004-17 15
Table 4: Antithrombotic sales forecasts for top 10 molecules in the seven major markets ($m), 2007-2017 25
Table 5: Comparison of leading branded antithrombotic sales ($m) in the seven major markets and the rest of the world (ROW), 2007 29
Table 6: Key factors impacting sales of Plavix across the seven major markets, 2008-2017 32
Table 7: Key factors impacting sales of Lovenox (enoxaparin), 2008-2017 39
Table 8: TRITON-TIMI 38 trial in prasugrel and clopidogrel - major efficacy results 45
Table 9: TRITON-TIMI 38 trial in prasugrel and clopidogrel - bleeding results 46
Table 10: Key factors impacting sales of Effient (prasugrel), 2008-2017 48
Table 11: Key factors impacting sales of Xarelto (rivaroxaban), 2008-2017 53
Table 12: Key factors impacting sales of Apixaban, 2008-2017 57
Table 13: Main results of the RE-NOVATE study 60
Table 14: Key factors impacting sales of Pradaxa (dabigatran), 2008-2017 61
List of Figures
Figure 1: Sales of antithrombotics in the seven major markets, 2007 8
Figure 2: Antiplatelet sales ($m) by marketed versus pipeline product in the seven major markets, 2004-2017 9
Figure 3: Anticoagulant sales ($m) by marketed versus pipeline product in the seven major markets, 2004-2017 10
Figure 4: Antithrombotic sales ($m) by marketed versus pipeline product in the seven major markets, 2004-2017 11
Figure 5: Antithrombotic sales ($m) and growth (% CAGR) by region in the US, Japan and the 5EU, 2004-2017 18
Figure 6: Antiplatelet sales ($m) by drug class in the seven major markets, 2004-2017 19
Figure 7: Anticoagulant sales ($m) by drug class in the seven major markets, 2004-2017 21
Figure 8: Antithrombotic sales ($m) of key brands/molecules in the seven major markets, 2007 and 2017 23
Figure 9: Rest of the world versus seven major market sales ($m) split in the antithrombotic market, 2007 28
Figure 10: Datamonitor's sales ($m) forecast for Plavix in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 35
Figure 11: Datamonitor's sales ($m) forecast for Lovenox (enoxaparin) in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 42
Figure 12: Datamonitor's sales ($m) forecast for Effient (prasugrel) in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 49
Figure 13: Datamonitor's sales ($m) forecast for Xarelto (rivaroxaban) in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 54
Figure 14: Datamonitor's sales ($m) forecast for apixaban in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 58
Figure 15: Datamonitor's sales ($m) forecast for Pradaxa in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 62