Pharmaceutical Company Outlook to 2013

Pharmaceutical Company Outlook to 2013

Introduction

PharmaVitae universe Rx sales are forecast to expand at a 2007-13 CAGR of 2.4%, down 7.6 percentage points from 2001-07. The underlying cause of this falling rate is the much-discussed genericization of small molecule products. However, not all sectors are equally exposed, prompting a shake-up of the industry and an increasing pursuit of cost savings to sustain operating profit growth rates.

Scope

*Analysis of the sales outlook for the PharmaVitae universe of leading prescription pharma companies to 2013

*Assessment of the impact of future launches and patent expiries on sales growth compared to historical trends

*Segmentation of the market by therapy area and molecule type to assess high- and low-growth sectors of the industry

*Assessment of the impact of cost-cutting on operating profit growth in an environment of low and sometimes negative sales growth

Highlights

The increasing assault of generics on leading pharma players' staple diet of small molecule products will prompt a shake-up of the industry. Companies' success will be heavily linked to their exposure to this generic threat, with biologics and niche players enjoying the greatest insulation and therefore often the highest growth.

Many companies not in these hot sectors of the industry will be compelled to pursue cost-cutting to maintain previous levels of operating profit growth and some may resort to M&A activity to bolster sales performance and/or strategically realign themselves.

However, recourse to M&A should not be surprising when looked at in the historical context, as this has already acted as the PharmaVitae universe's primary growth driver in the period between 2001 and 2007, accounting for a greater proportion of growth than internal R&D operations.

Reasons to Purchase

*Gain a true understanding of the threats facing the pharmaceutical industry's sales performance and which sectors will be most heavily impacted

*Assess the effectiveness of cost-cutting programs on operating profit performance in a period of low sales growth

*Evaluate the impact of M&A on companies' historical performance and see how low top-line sales growth could prompt a further wave of consolidation

CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2
Key findings 2
Introduction to the PharmaVitae Universe 4
Industry coverage of the PharmaVitae Universe 4
The PharmaVitae forecast database 4
The PharmaVitae peer sets 5
PharmaVitae operating cost and profit forecasts 6
Strategic overview of the PharmaVitae Universe to 2013 6
Overview of the PharmaVitae Universe outlook to 2013 8
The company outlook to 2013 10
PharmaVitae Universe launch/core/expiry analysis 15
PharmaVitae Universe molecule type analysis 20
PharmaVitae Universe M&A analysis 23
PharmaVitae Universe operating performance analysis 25
CHAPTER 2 THE BIG PHARMA OUTLOOK TO 2013 30
Key findings 30
Overview of Big Pharma to 2013 31
Big Pharma Rx pharma sales performance, 2001-13 31
Big Pharma landscape, 2007-13 33
Big Pharma company analysis 35
Big Pharma company sales, 2007 36
Big Pharma company sales outlook, 2007-13 37
Big Pharma launch/core/expiry analysis 41
Big Pharma therapy area analysis 45
Big Pharma molecule type analysis 49
Big Pharma operating performance analysis 54
CHAPTER 3 THE MID PHARMA OUTLOOK TO 2013 57
Key findings 57
Overview of Mid Pharma to 2013 58
Mid Pharma Rx pharma sales performance, 2001-13 58
Mid Pharma landscape, 2007-13 59
Mid Pharma company analysis 61
Mid Pharma launch/core/expiry analysis 67
Mid Pharma therapy area analysis 71
Mid Pharma molecule type analysis 74
Mid Pharma operating performance analysis 79
CHAPTER 4 THE BIOTECH OUTLOOK TO 2013 82
Key findings 82
Overview of Biotech to 2013 83
Biotech Rx pharma sales performance, 2001-13 83
Biotech landscape, 2007-13 84
Biotech company analysis 85
Biotech launch/core/expiry analysis 91
Biotech therapy area analysis 95
Biotech molecule type analysis 98
Biotech operating performance analysis 103
CHAPTER 5 THE JAPAN PHARMA OUTLOOK TO 2013 106
Key findings 106
Overview of Japan Pharma to 2013 107
Japan Pharma Rx pharma sales performance, 2001-13 107
Japan Pharma landscape, 2007-13 108
Japan Pharma company analysis 110
Japan Pharma launch/core/expiry analysis 116
Japan Pharma therapy area analysis 120
Japan Pharma molecule type analysis 123
CHAPTER 6 APPENDIX 128
References 128
Datamonitor reports 128
Other references 128
General references 128
Abbreviations 128
Exchange rates 129
List of Tables
Table 1: Strategic overview of the PharmaVitae Universe, 2007-13 6
Table 2: PharmaVitae Universe overview by peer set, 2007-13 10
Table 3: Launch/core/expiry analysis (percentage of 2001 sales), 2001-07 17
Table 4: Launch/core/expiry analysis (percentage of 2007 sales), 2007-13 17
Table 5: PharmaVitae Universe operating performance ($ billion), 2007-13 28
Table 6: Big Pharma peer set overview, 2007-13 35
Table 7: Big Pharma launch/core/expiry portfolios, 2007-13 43
Table 8: Mid Pharma peer set overview, 2007-13 61
Table 9: Mid Pharma launch/core/expiry portfolios, 2007-13 69
Table 10: Biotech peer set overview, 2007-13 85
Table 11: Biotech launch/core/expiry portfolios, 2007-13 93
Table 12: Japan Pharma peer set overview, 2007-13 110
Table 13: Japan Pharma launch/core/expiry portfolios, 2007-13 118
Table 14: Exchange rates, 2007 129
List of Figures
Figure 1: PharmaVitae Universe Rx sales ($bn) and year-on-year growth rate (%), 2001-13 8
Figure 2: PharmaVitae Universe Rx sales ($bn) by company, 2007 12
Figure 3: PharmaVitae Universe Rx sales CAGR (%) by company, 2007-13 13
Figure 4: PharmaVitae Universe Rx sales ($bn) by company, 2013 14
Figure 5: PharmaVitae Universe launch/core/expiry analysis, change in sales ($bn), 2001-07 and 2007-13 15
Figure 6: PharmaVitae Universe launch/core/expiry analysis, change in sales (% 2007) by peer set, 2007-13 18
Figure 7: PharmaVitae Universe launch/core/expiry analysis, change in sales (% 2007) by company, 2007-13 19
Figure 8: PharmaVitae Universe Rx sales ($bn) by molecule type, 2001-13 20
Figure 9: PharmaVitae Universe Rx sales growth ($bn) by molecule type, 2007-13 21
Figure 10: PharmaVitae Universe company-by-company Rx sales growth ($bn) by molecule type, 2007-13 22
Figure 11: PharmaVitae Universe Rx sales growth ($bn) by source, 2001-07 23
Figure 12: PharmaVitae Universe operating performance ($bn), 2001-13 25
Figure 13: PharmaVitae Universe operating performance (% total sales), 2001-13 26
Figure 14: PharmaVitae Universe operating profit growth drivers ($bn), sales vs. operating costs, 2001-07 and 2007-13 27
Figure 15: Big Pharma peer set Rx sales and growth rate, 2001-13 31
Figure 16: Big Pharma peer set landscape, 2007-13 33
Figure 17: Big Pharma peer set companies, Rx sales ($m), 2007 36
Figure 18: Big Pharma peer set companies, Rx sales CAGR (%), 2007-13 37
Figure 19: Big Pharma peer set companies, Rx sales ($bn), 2007-13 38
Figure 20: Big Pharma peer set companies, Rx sales ($m), 2013 38
Figure 21: Big Pharma peer set growth by source of product ($m), 2001-07 39
Figure 22: Big Pharma peer set launch/core/expiry, 2001-13 41
Figure 23: Big Pharma companies launch/core/expiry ($bn), 2007-13 42
Figure 24: Big Pharma companies launch/core/expiry (percentage of 2007 Rx sales), 2007-13 44
Figure 25: Big Pharma peer set, therapy area focus, 2001-13 45
Figure 26: Big Pharma company sales by therapy area ($m), 2007 46
Figure 27: Big Pharma company sales by therapy area ($m), 2013 47
Figure 28: Big Pharma peer set, molecule type focus, 2001-13 49
Figure 29: Big Pharma peer set growth by molecule type, 2007-13 50
Figure 30: Big Pharma companies molecule type focus (% Rx sales), 2007 51
Figure 31: Big Pharma companies, growth by molecule type, 2007-13 52
Figure 32: Big Pharma companies molecule type focus (% Rx sales), 2013 53
Figure 33: Big Pharma operating performance ($bn), 2001-13 54
Figure 34: Big Pharma operating performance (% total sales), 2001-13 55
Figure 35: Big Pharma companies operating performance ($m), 2007-13 56
Figure 36: Mid Pharma peer set Rx sales and growth rate, 2001-13 58
Figure 37: Mid Pharma peer set landscape, 2007-13 59
Figure 38: Mid Pharma peer set companies, Rx sales ($m), 2007 62
Figure 39: Mid Pharma peer set companies, Rx sales CAGR (%), 2007-13 63
Figure 40: Mid Pharma peer set companies, Rx sales ($bn), 2007-13 64
Figure 41: Mid Pharma peer set companies, Rx sales ($m), 2013 65
Figure 42: Mid Pharma peer set growth by source of product ($m), 2001-07 66
Figure 43: Mid Pharma peer set launch/core/expiry, 2001-13 67
Figure 44: Mid Pharma companies launch/core/expiry ($bn), 2007-13 68
Figure 45: Mid Pharma companies launch/core/expiry (percentage of 2007 Rx sales), 2007-13 70
Figure 46: Mid Pharma peer set, therapy area focus, 2001-13 71
Figure 47: Mid Pharma company sales by therapy area ($m), 2007 72
Figure 48: Mid Pharma company sales by therapy area ($m), 2013 73
Figure 49: Mid Pharma peer set, molecule type focus, 2001-13 74
Figure 50: Mid Pharma peer set growth by molecule type, 2007-13 75
Figure 51: Mid Pharma companies molecule type focus (% Rx sales), 2007 76
Figure 52: Mid Pharma companies, growth by molecule type, 2007-13 77
Figure 53: Mid Pharma companies molecule type focus (% Rx sales), 2013 78
Figure 54: Mid Pharma operating performance ($bn), 2001-13 79
Figure 55: Mid Pharma operating performance (% total sales), 2001-13 80
Figure 56: Mid Pharma companies operating performance ($m), 2007-13 81
Figure 57: Biotech peer set Rx sales and growth rate, 2001-13 83
Figure 58: Biotech peer set landscape, 2007-13 84
Figure 59: Biotech peer set companies, Rx sales ($m), 2007 86
Figure 60: Biotech peer set companies, Rx sales CAGR (%), 2007-13 87
Figure 61: Biotech peer set companies, Rx sales ($bn), 2007-13 88
Figure 62: Biotech peer set companies, Rx sales ($m), 2013 89
Figure 63: Biotech peer set growth by source of product ($m), 2001-07 90
Figure 64: Biotech peer set launch/core/expiry, 2001-13 91
Figure 65: Biotech companies launch/core/expiry ($bn), 2007-13 92
Figure 66: Biotech companies launch/core/expiry (percentage of 2007 Rx sales), 2007-13 94
Figure 67: Biotech peer set, therapy area focus, 2001-13 95
Figure 68: Biotech company sales by therapy area ($m), 2007 96
Figure 69: Biotech company sales by therapy area ($m), 2013 97
Figure 70: Biotech peer set, molecule type focus, 2001-13 98
Figure 71: Biotech peer set growth by molecule type, 2007-13 99
Figure 72: Biotech companies molecule type focus (% Rx sales), 2007 100
Figure 73: Biotech companies, growth by molecule type, 2007-13 101
Figure 74: Biotech companies molecule type focus (% Rx sales), 2013 102
Figure 75: Biotech operating performance ($bn), 2001-13 103
Figure 76: Biotech operating performance (% total sales), 2001-13 104
Figure 77: Biotech companies operating performance ($m), 2007-13 105
Figure 78: Japan Pharma peer set Rx sales and growth rate, 2001-13 107
Figure 79: Japan Pharma peer set landscape, 2007-13 108
Figure 80: Japan Pharma peer set companies, Rx sales ($m), 2007 111
Figure 81: Japan Pharma peer set companies, Rx sales CAGR (%), 2007-13 112
Figure 82: Japan Pharma peer set companies, Rx sales ($bn), 2007-13 113
Figure 83: Japan Pharma peer set companies, Rx sales ($m), 2013 114
Figure 84: Japan Pharma peer set growth by source of product ($m), 2001-07 115
Figure 85: Japan Pharma peer set launch/core/expiry, 2001-13 116
Figure 86: Japan Pharma companies launch/core/expiry ($bn), 2007-13 117
Figure 87: Japan Pharma companies launch/core/expiry (percentage of 2007 Rx sales), 2007-13 119
Figure 88: Japan Pharma peer set, therapy area focus, 2001-13 120
Figure 89: Japan Pharma company sales by therapy area ($m), 2007 121
Figure 90: Japan Pharma company sales by therapy area ($m), 2013 122
Figure 91: Japan Pharma peer set, molecule type focus, 2001-13 123
Figure 92: Japan Pharma peer set growth by molecule type, 2007-13 124
Figure 93: Japan Pharma companies molecule type focus (% Rx sales), 2007 125
Figure 94: Japan Pharma companies, growth by molecule type, 2007-13 126
Figure 95: Japan Pharma companies molecule type focus (% Rx sales), 2013 127