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Norway Business Forecast Report Q4 2014

  • August 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 27 pages

Core Views
We continue to expect a slowdown in oil sector investment, an uncompetitive export sector, and a cooling residential real estate sector to weigh on Norwegian GDP growth in 2014-2015. The residential housing market has been a major contributor to overall real GDP growth for most of the past decade, but is set to cool over the next few years. While we have not yet seen signs of a full-blown housing crash, real estate prices have faltered, and we will be vigilant for signs of a more pronounced correction in the
coming quarters.

We believe that the newly elected Conservative-Progress minority coalition government is unlikely to call for major changes in policy in the near future.

Major Forecast Changes
W e have lowered our 2014 real GDP growth forecast for Norway to 1.6% from 1.7%, and our 2015 forecast to 1.9% from 2.1% previously.

Table Of Contents

Norway Business Forecast Report Q4 2014
Executive Summary 5
Core Views...5
Major Forecast Changes.5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook.. 7
BMI Political Risk Ratings.. 7
SWOT Analysis 7
Domestic Politics 8
Prolonged Privatisation Process Ahead
Nearly a year into its first term, the Conservative-led government of Prime Minister Erna Solberg is beginning to take steps to privatise
state-owned companies. The privatisation process is likely to be slow and limited, however, and the state is likely to retain a majority
stake in oil giant Statoil.
Table: Political Overview8
Table: State -Owned Comp anies That May Be Part Or Fully Privatised ... 9
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook.. 11
BMI Economic Risk Ratings.. 11
SWOT Analysis... 11
Economic Activity... 12
Growth To Improve, But Competitiveness Remains A Problem
The next couple of years will see a modest recovery for the Norwegian economy compared with average growth of just 0.6% between
2008-13. Although real GDP growth should return to around 2.4% by 2016 and beyond, economic expansion will be limited by a longterm
erosion of international competitiveness.
Table: GDP Cont ribut ion To Growth...12
Table: Long -Term Macroeconom ic Forec asts ...13
Monetary Policy . 14
NOK: Oversold, But Structural Problems Linger
The Norwegian krone is slightly oversold versus the euro amid misplaced expectations for central bank easing, and is set for near-term
appreciation, to NOK8.2500/EUR by end-2014, from NOK8.4100/EUR at present. Over the long term, despite upside pressures from
large current account surpluses and high interest rates relative to the rest of Europe, the krone is likely to steady around current levels
rather than appreciate as domestic oil production wanes and the stunted competitiveness of the non-oil export sector damages overall
Table: Currency Forecast.14
Chapter 3: Business Environment 17
SWOT Analysis... 17
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings 17
Chapter 4: Key Sectors... 19
Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare .. 19
Table: Pharmaceut ical Sales , Histo rical Data And Forec asts 20
Table: He althcare Expend itu re Trends , Histo rical Data And Forec asts 20
Table: Private He althcare Expend itu re Trends , Histo rical Data And Forec asts ... 21
Table: Government He althcare Expend itu re Trends , Histo rical Data And Forec asts ... 21
Other Key Sectors... 23
Table: Oil and Gas Sector Key Indicators..23
Table: Telecoms Secto r Key Ind icato rs23
Table: Infrastructure Sector Key Indicators..23
Table: Food and Drink Sector Key Indicators....24
Table: Autos Sector Key Indicators..24
Chapter 5: BMI Global Assumptions. 25
Global Outlook.... 25
US Revision Drags Down Forecast.25
Table: Glob al Assumpt ions 25
Table: Developed States , Re al GDP GrowtH , %..26
Table: Eme rging Markets , Re al GDP Growth, %.27

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