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West Africa Mining Report Q1 2016

  • November 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 74 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: West Africa's growth outlook will weaken on the back of continued mineral price weakness,inadequate infrastructure and the aftermath of the Ebola outbreak over the coming quarters. The region'slong-term growth outlook remains promising due to countries' vast untapped mineral reserves, positiveforeign investment outlook and infrastructure developments.

Latest Developments & Structural Trends

- Guinea is home to one of the world's richest iron ore deposits. Nevertheless, we expect the country's ironore production growth to slow due to weak iron ore prices, inadequate infrastructure, political instabilityand the aftermath of the Ebola outbreak. Besides iron ore, we expect solid bauxite production growth dueto the country's incremental output from new projects coming online coupled with currentoperations. Recent violence in the Forest region illustrates how Guinea remains politically fragile, andpoliticians must refrain from campaigning along ethnic lines if they are to not throw a spark onto thetinderbox. We expect that widespread hostilities will be averted in the run-up to October 11 elections, andthat incumbent Alpha Condé will be returned for a second presidential term.

Table Of Contents

West Africa Mining Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Select Countries - Mining Industry Forecast 7
Latest Developments and Structural Trends 7
Industry Forecast 11
Guinea Bauxite: Set For Solid Growth 11
Latest Developments 11
Table: Guinea - Bauxite Production and Growth 11
Structural Trends 11
Table: Guinea - New Projects 12
Political Risks To Outlook 14
Guinea Iron Ore: Modest Growth Ahead 14
Latest Developments 15
Table: Guinea - Iron Ore Production and Growth 15
Structural Trends 15
Table: Guinea - New Iron Ore Projects 17
Risk To Outlook 19
Sierra Leone: Growth To Recover In The Long Term 20
Latest Developments 20
Table: Sierra Leone - Iron Ore Production and Growth 20
Structural Trends 21
Mauritania: Gold To Contract, Iron Ore To Be Weak 22
Latest Developments 23
Table: Mauritania - Mine Production and Growth 23
Structural Trends 23
Price Weakness To Subdue Investment Outlook 25
Table: Mauritania - New Iron Ore Mining Projects 26
Infrastructure Weakness To Dampen Growth Outlook 27
Ghana Gold: Price Weakness To Subdue Growth 28
Latest Developments 28
Table: Ghana - Gold Production and Growth 28
Structural Trends 28
Government Shows No Sign of Easing Taxes 31
Côte d'Ivoire Gold: New Projects To Support Growth 33
Latest Developments 33
Table: Cote d'Ivoire - Gold Production Forecast 34
Table: Côte d'Ivoire - Largest Gold Projects 34
Structural Trends 34
Liberia Iron Ore: Weak Prices To Dent Growth 38
Latest Developments 38
Table: Liberia - Iron Ore Production Forecast and Growth 38
Structural Trends 38
Business Environment To Remain Relatively Stable 41
Table: Liberia - Iron Ore Project Pipeline 41
Mali Gold: Output To Decline 42
Latest Developments 42
Table: Mali - Gold Production Forecast 42
Structural Trends 43
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 45
Guinea Risk/Reward Ratings 45
Rewards 45
Industry Rewards 45
Country Rewards 45
Risks 45
Industry Risks 45
Country Risks 45
Liberia Risk/Reward Index 46
Rewards 46
Industry Rewards 46
Country Rewards 46
Risks 46
Industry Risks 46
Country Risks 46
Africa: Major Risks Remain 47
Key Takeaways 47
Latest Revisions 48
Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Reward Index 49
Regulatory Development 50
Table: Africa Regulatory Outlook 50
Commodities Forecast 52
Commodities Outlook 52
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts 52
Competitive Landscape 53
Table: West Africa: Key Mining Companies' Financial Metrics 54
Structural Trends: 54
Company Profile 55
Global Company Strategy - Randgold Resources - Q4 2015 55
Latest Financial Results 59
Table: Randgold Resources - Key Financial Data 60
Global Company Strategy - AngloGold Ashanti - Q1 2016 61
Overview 62
Strategy 62
Risks 63
Latest Results 64
Table: AngloGold Ashanti - Key Financial Data 65
Regional Overview 66
Africa Mining: The Four Key Themes 66
Key Themes 66
Chinese Investment To Continue 66
Iron Ore Price Weakness To Curb Growth 67
Regulatory Uncertainty To Curb Growth 68
Mining To Remain Key Contributor To GDP 70
Methodology 71
Industry Forecast Methodology 71
Sources 72
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 73
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 74

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