West Africa Mining Report Q1 2014

  • November 2013
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 102 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

West Africa's mining sector is set to grow rapidly as investment pours into the region's phenomenal mineral
wealth. Much of this growth will be focused on iron ore and gold as the region has untapped and high-grade
reserves of both metals. We expect the bulk of the growth in the mining sector to be towards the end of the
forecast period as many of the projects are still in their early stages of development.
We expect West Africa, particularly Sierra Leone and Guinea, to exhibit some of the fastest rates of growth
in iron ore production over the coming years which will make both countries major global exporters by
2017. We are also forecasting strong iron ore production growth in Liberia and to a lesser extent in
Mauritania. Elsewhere we see steady growth in gold production in Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire, Mali and Burkina
Faso, however we highlight that weak gold prices will squeeze margins for gold miners and precipitate mine
closures where cash costs become unsustainable.

Table Of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Guinea Iron Ore: Pushing Back The Boom 11
Potential Chinese Investment in Infrastructure 12
Table: Guinea - Main Iron Ore Projects 14
Table: Guinea - Iron Ore Production 14
Guinea Bauxite: Third Largest Producer By 2017 15
Table: Guinea - Key Expansion Plans 17
Uncertainty and Poor Infrastructure To Weigh On Investment 18
Table: Guinea - Bauxite Production 19
Sierra Leone Iron Ore: Export Boom 19
Table: Sierra Leone - Main Iron Ore Projects 21
Table: Sierra Leone - Iron Ore Production (mn tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 22
Mauritania: Mining Sector To Receive Boost, But Overshadowed By Neighbours 22
Table: Mauritania - Key Mining Projects 25
Gradual Steps To Improve Infrastructure 25
Table: Mauritania - Iron Ore and Gold Production 25
Mali Gold: Sound Growth Outlook Despite Political Uncertainties 26
Sizeable Downside Risks 27
Government Support 28
Table: Mali - Largest Gold Projects 29
Political Risk Subdued 29
Table: Mali - Gold Production 29
Ghana Gold: Headwinds For Gold Miners 29
Government Measures To Increase Difficulties 31
Table: Ghana - Gold Production 32
Côte d'Ivoire Gold: Large Potential, Larger Risks 32
Table: Côte d'Ivoire - Largest Gold Projects 34
Table: Côte d'Ivoire - Gold Production ('000 ounces) 35
Liberia Iron Ore: Joining West Africa's Surge 35
Relatively Stable Business Environment 36
Table: Liberia - Main Iron Ore Projects 37
Downside Risks 37
Table: Liberia Iron Ore Production and Growth 37
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 38
Risk/Reward Ratings 38
Lower Gold Prices Reduce Rewards 38
Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Rewards Ratings 39
Reduced Rewards For Copper Mining 39
Mixed Rankings For West Africa 39
Substantial Rewards In Southern Africa 40
Lack Of Uniformity In Regulatory Development 41
Political and Infrastructure Risks Lurk 41
Country Highlights 42
South Africa: Deteriorating Environment For Mining Companies 42
Mozambique: Mining Sector Set To Boom 43
Botswana: All Round Outperformer 43
Market Overview 44
Iron Ore To Take Centre Stage 45
Table: West Africa - Main Projects 45
Table: West Africa - Key Mining Production 47
Regulatory Development 48
Ghana and Mauritania: Sectors To Remain Investor Friendly 48
Mining Reviews For Mali and Sierra Leone 48
Tough Conditions In Guinea and Cote d'Ivoire 49
Future Possibility of Regulation Harmonization 49
Table: Africa - Regulatory Outlook 49
Commodities Forecast 51
Commodity Strategy 51
Aluminium: Small Rebound 54
Copper: Sideways Trading To Give Way 55
Nickel: Still No Relief 58
Zinc: Short-Term Strength 60
Table: Select Commodities - Performance and BMI Forecasts 61
Table: Global Commodities Strategy 62
Competitive Landscape 63
Table: Financial Metrics 64
Company Profile 65
Rio Tinto - Q1 2014 65
Company Overview 67
Company Strategy 68
Table: Rio Tinto - Key Financial Data 70
AngloGold Ashanti 71
Overview 72
Strategy 73
Table: AngloGold Ashanti - Key Financial Data 74
Randgold Resources 75
Table: Randgold Resources - Financial Results 78
Regional Overview 79
Africa Overview 79
1 Chinese Investment Inflows To Continue 79
2 Lack Of Infrastructure A Major Hurdle 80
3 Regulatory Environment In Flux 81
Table: Key Regulatory Developments 82
4 Gold Crunch To Gain Traction 82
5 Iron Ore Production In West Africa To Boom 84
6 Southern Africa To Become A Key Coal Exporter 85
Global Industry Overview 86
Downturn To Continue Into 2014 86
1 China Slowdown To Drive Mining Moderation 86
2 Frontier Mining Increasingly Challenging 87
3 Mining Services Firms Facing Tough Outlook 89
But Opportunities Still Exist 91
1 Asian Outward Investment Continues 91
2 Private Equity Entering The Mix 93
3 Global Thermal Coal Demand Still Growing 94
Methodology 97
Industry Forecast Methodology 97
Sources 98
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology 99
Table: Mining Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators 100
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 101
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 102

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