Market and Product Forecasts: Melanoma – Yervoy will continue to dominate as new approvals struggle to compete

Publication date: October 2012
Report size: 47 pages

Keywords : melanoma, metastatic melanoma

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The melanoma market has seen an increase in developer attention following significant breakthroughs in treatment. New approvals have raised the bar to enter the market, but with drug resistance and toxicity still major problems, there are opportunities for developers to move into this market. The entry of pipeline drugs into the market will significantly increase the value of branded sales.Analysis of melanoma drugs in the US and five major EU markets.Patient-based sales forecast for drugs in the branded melanoma market from 2012 to 2021.In-depth analysis of the factors influencing the melanoma market in individual countries.Molecule dynamics and assessment of the key melanoma drugs in the US and five major EU markets.The branded melanoma market in the US and five major EU markets (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK) will experience significant growth over the forecast period. Sales revenue will increase from $1.1bn in 2012 to just under $2.4bn by 2021, demonstrating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.24%.Datamonitor estimates that in 2012 the US melanoma market will be worth $691m, commanding 64% of the six surveyed markets total. Over the forecast period, the value of this market will increase to $1.6bn, demonstrating a CAGR of 10.04%.Yervoy is currently the highest grossing melanoma drug in the US and the five major EU markets, generating 2011 sales of $360m. Few pipeline drugs are expected to actively compete with Yervoy over the forecast period, and Yervoy is forecast to generate sales of over $1bn by 2021.Quantify the performance of each of melanoma drug in the US and five major EU markets by sales and patient numbers.Gain insight into the key trends in individual melanoma markets across the US and five major EU markets.The report is accompanied by a PowerPoint presentation and Excel deliverable showing full melanoma forecasts for each country

Pathology Industry in the United States

OVERVIEW
•Catalyst
•Summary

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
•Strategic scoping and focus
•Datamonitor key findings

MARKET DEFINITION •Market definition for melanoma
•Forecast methodology and assumptions - Methodology flow
- Patent expiries
- New product launches

•Additional forecast methodology

MARKET
OVERVIEW
AND CONTEXT•Melanoma therapies included in this report
•Current and future market dynamics overview - The branded melanoma market will experience a dramatic increase in sales over the forecast period
- Market entry of new drugs will dramatically increase the value of the branded melanoma market
- The commercial value of pipeline therapies will not surpass the total value of current marketed therapies
- New product launches will mostly impact the metastatic melanoma setting
- The US will remain the most lucrative market over the forecast period
- The overall value of branded melanoma therapies will increase across the five major EU markets

PRODUCT FORECASTS•Molecule dynamics - Yervoy will continue to dominate the melanoma market over the forecast period

•Yervoy (ipilimumab; Bristol-Myers Squibb) - Forecast assumptions
- Yervoy forecast 2012–21

•Zelboraf (vemurafenib; Roche/Daiichi Sankyo) - Forecast assumptions
- Zelboraf forecast 2012–21

•Abraxane (albumin-bound paclitaxel; Celgene) - Forecast assumptions
- Abraxane forecast 2012–21

•Allovectin-7 (velimogene aliplasmid; Vical) - Forecast assumptions
- Allovectin-7 forecast 2012–21

•Dabrafenib (GSK-2118436; GlaxoSmithKline) - Forecast assumptions
- Dabrafenib forecast 2012–21

•MAGE-A3 ASCI (astuprotimut-r; GlaxoSmithKline) - Forecast assumptions
- MAGE-A3 ASCI forecast 2012–21

•OncoVEX GM-CSF (talimogene laherparepvec; Amgen) - Forecast assumptions
- OncoVEX forecast 2012–21

•POL-103A (Polynoma/CK Life Sciences) - Forecast assumptions
- POL-103A forecast 2012–21

•Trametinib (GSK-1120212; GlaxoSmithKline) - Forecast assumptions
- Trametinib forecast 2012–21

BIBLIOGRAPHY
•Journal papers
•Websites

APPENDIX
•Forecast methodology - Volume and value forecast methodology
- Price and compliance assumptions

TABLES
•Table: Summary of therapeutic classes in melanoma by ATC code, 2012
•Table: Patent expiry dates for key marketed brands in melanoma, 2012
•Table: Estimated launch dates for key late-stage pipeline products in melanoma, 2012–21
•Table: Drugs included in melanoma market and product forecasts, 2012–21
•Table: Melanoma drug sales in the US and five major EU markets ($m), 2012–21
•Table: Melanoma drug sales in the US ($m), 2012–21
•Table: Melanoma molecule sales in the five major EU markets ($m), 2012–21
•Table: Key melanoma drug sales in the US and five major EU markets, 2012 and 2021
•Table: Yervoy sales, by country ($m), 2012–21
•Table: Yervoy patients, by country, 2012–21
•Table: Zelboraf sales, by country ($m), 2012–21
•Table: Zelboraf patients, by country, 2012–21
•Table: Abraxane sales, by country ($m), 2012–21
•Table: Abraxane patients, by country, 2012–21
•Table: Allovectin-7 sales, by country ($m), 2012–21
•Table: Allovectin-7 patients, by country, 2012–21
•Table: Dabrafenib sales, by country ($m), 2012–21
•Table: Dabrafenib patients, by country, 2012–21
•Table: MAGE-A3 ASCI sales, by country ($m), 2012–21
•Table: MAGE-A3 ASCI patients, by country, 2012–21
•Table: OncoVEX GM-CSF sales, by country ($m), 2012–21
•Table: OncoVEX GM-CSF patients, by country, 2012–21
•Table: POL-103A sales, by country ($m), 2012–21
•Table: POL-103A patients, by country, 2012–21
•Table: Trametinib sales, by country ($m), 2012–21
•Table: Trametinib patients, by country, 2012–21
•Table: Price sources and calculations, by country, 2012
•Table: Exchange rates used for calculating prices, 2012

FIGURES
•Figure: Patient-based forecast methodology for melanoma, 2012
•Figure: Melanoma market forecast across the US and five major EU markets, by country ($m), 2012–21
•Figure: Melanoma sales in the US and five major EU markets, by class ($m), 2012–21
•Figure: Estimated approval/launch dates of key melanoma therapies, 2012–21
•Figure: Branded melanoma market value in the US, by drug class ($m), 2012–21
•Figure: Branded melanoma market value in the five major EU markets, by drug class ($m), 2012–21
•Figure: Key branded melanoma drug sales, 2012–21
•Figure: Yervoy sales, by country ($m), 2012–21
•Figure: Zelboraf sales, by country ($m), 2012–21
•Figure: Abraxane sales, by country ($m), 2012–21
•Figure: Allovectin-7 sales, by country ($m), 2012–21
•Figure: Dabrafenib sales, by country ($m), 2012–21
•Figure: MAGE-A3 ASCI sales, by country ($m), 2012–21
•Figure: OncoVEX GM-CSF sales, by country ($m), 2012–21
•Figure: POL-103A sales, by country ($m), 2012–21
•Figure: Trametinib sales, by country ($m), 2012–21

Companies Mentioned

Cancer in United States