International Wind Energy Development: Offshore Report 2013 Forecast 2012 - 2021

• Publication date: November 2012
• Report size: 284 pages

BTM Consult, a part of Navigant’s global Energy Practice and a premier forecaster of the international wind industry, brings its experience and expertise to a comprehensive look at the offshore wind energy industry, as well as the impacted supply chain in this expanding but challenging market. Offshore Report 2013 is BTM Consult’s most comprehensive overview of the offshore wind market to date. The report highlights developments in the i...

BTM Consult, a part of Navigant’s global Energy Practice and a premier forecaster of the international wind industry, brings its experience and expertise to a comprehensive look at the offshore wind energy industry, as well as the impacted supply chain in this expanding but challenging market.
Offshore Report 2013 is BTM Consult’s most comprehensive overview of the offshore wind market to date. The report highlights developments in the international offshore wind market over the past two years, as well as industry growth trends as projected in the report’s near-term forecast to 2016 and medium term predictions to 2021.
Offshore Report 2013 provides an assessment of all major offshore wind markets and incentives from across the world, and a detailed analysis of both the demand and supply sides of the offshore wind market in 2012.  Key findings are included from the latest update of the “balance of plant” supply situation and from this report’s analyses of offshore wind financing, including future CAPEX and OPEX requirements. The report’s special theme reviews the current shipping and logistics situation for offshore wind farm construction.
Key components in the study include:

-Blades
-Gearboxes
-Generators
-Bearings
-Towers
-Converters
-Transformers
-Pitch drive systems
-Yaw drive systems
-Control systems

Key materials in the study include:

-Foundations – gravity and steel
-Contractors on installation
-Key suppliers to “balance of plant” included in the study:
-Installation vessels
-Cable laying vessels
-Sub-station suppliers
-Cable suppliers
-Providers of cable installation offshore
-Hammer suppliers

Key “infrastructure” included in the study:

-Offshore wind ports
-Offshore wind power transmission

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Wind Turbine Industry in Ireland

Table of Contents

Abbreviations and Technical Units
Preface
Executive Summary

1.  Introduction
1.1         Methodology
1.2         Limitations of the research

2.  Status of Global Offshore Wind Power
2.1         Market update 2011 – demand side
2.2         Market update 2011 – supply side

3.  The Global Offshore Wind Power Market
3.1         Offshore wind resource in key regions
3.1.1       Offshore wind resource in Europe
3.1.2       Offshore wind resource in China
3.1.3       Offshore wind resource in Japan
3.1.4       Offshore wind resource in South Korea
3.1.5       Offshore wind resource in the United States
3.2         Offshore wind market profiles
3.2.1       Europe
3.2.1.1        United Kingdom
3.2.1.2        Germany
3.2.1.3        Denmark
3.2.1.4        France
3.2.1.5        Belgium
3.2.1.6        Sweden
3.2.1.7        The Netherlands
3.2.1.8        Ireland (Republic)
3.2.1.9        Other EU countries
3.2.2       Asia
3.2.2.1        China
3.2.2.2        Japan
3.2.2.3        South Korea
3.2.2.4        Taiwan
3.2.3       North America
3.2.3.1        United States
3.2.3.2        Canada

4.  Structure of the Offshore Wind Market
4.1         Customers in the market
4.1.1       Developers/Operators/Owners
4.1.2       Strategies of leading offshore wind farm developers
4.1.2.1        Dong Energy
4.1.2.2        Vattenfall
4.1.2.3        E.ON
4.1.2.4        RWE
4.1.2.5        SSE Renewables
4.1.2.6        Centrica
4.1.2.7        Eneco
4.1.2.8        Longyuan Power Group
4.1.2.9        TCW
4.1.2.10     Marubeni
4.1.3       Project portfolios held by leading offshore developers
4.1.4       Trends on the demand side
4.1.5       Geographic location of leading offshore wind farm developers/operator activity
4.2         Offshore wind turbine suppliers
4.2.1       Overview of the offshore turbine market
4.2.2       Evolution of offshore turbine technology 1991-2012
4.2.3       Technology trends for offshore turbines
4.2.3.1        Traditional multi-megawatt offshore turbine
4.2.3.2        Medium speed turbines
4.2.3.3        Direct drive offshore turbines
4.2.3.4        Hydraulic drive offshore turbines
4.2.3.5        Super-size turbines ?10 MW
4.2.3.6        Floating turbines
4.2.3.7        Summary of offshore turbine technology trends
4.2.4       Strategic analysis of offshore wind turbine manufacturers
4.2.4.1        Leading OEM suppliers (Tier 1)
4.2.4.2        Recently established OEM suppliers (Tier 2)
4.2.4.3        New entrants (Tier 3)
4.2.5       Offshore turbine supplier project portfolios

5.  Offshore Wind Economics & Finance
5.1         Offshore project financing
5.1.1       History of offshore wind project finance
5.1.2       Current and future status
5.2         Offshore wind plant costs
5.2.1       CAPEX
5.2.1.1        Capital cost components
5.2.1.2        CAPEX trends
5.2.2       OPEX
5.2.2.1        OPEX cost components
5.2.2.2        O&M trends
5.2.2.3        O&M strategies
5.3         Levelised cost of energy
5.4         Offshore wind cost reduction pathways overview
5.4.1       Aim of initiatives
5.4.2       Key outcomes
5.4.2.1        Supply chain
5.4.2.2        Innovation
5.4.2.3        Contracting strategies
5.4.2.4        Planning & consenting
5.4.2.5        Grid
5.4.2.6        Finance

6.  The Offshore Wind Supply Chain & Technology Trends
6.1         Offshore wind supply chain strategies
6.2         Key components
6.2.1       Rotor blades
6.2.2       Gearboxes
6.2.3       Generators
6.2.4       Bearings
6.2.5       Power converters
6.2.6       Power transformers
6.2.7       Towers
6.2.8       Pitch drive systems
6.2.9       Yaw drive systems
6.2.10     Control systems
6.3         Key component materials
6.3.1       Castings for offshore wind
6.3.2       Forged parts for offshore wind turbines
6.4         Offshore wind farm balance of plant
6.4.1       Offshore foundations
6.4.1.1        Challenges of offshore wind foundations
6.4.1.2        New offshore wind foundation designs
6.4.1.3        Gravity based structures
6.4.1.4        Suppliers of offshore wind steel structures
6.4.2       Offshore cable suppliers
6.4.3       Substations
6.4.4       Specialist installation contractors
6.4.5       Installation and construction vessels
6.4.5.1        Types of vessels
6.4.5.2        Installation vessels
6.4.6       Contractors for offshore cable installation
6.4.7       Cable laying vessels
6.4.8       Pile driving hammers

7.  Offshore Wind Infrastructure
7.1         Offshore wind ports
7.2         Offshore wind power transmission
7.2.1       Overview of offshore wind power grid
7.2.2       Challenges of offshore wind power transmission

8.  Offshore Wind Market Forecast and Predictions
8.1         Introduction to offshore wind market forecast and prediction to 2021
8.2         Methodology for offshore wind market .forecast to 2016
8.3         Offshore wind power market forecast to 2016
8.4         Methodology for market prediction to 2021
8.5         Offshore wind power market prediction 2017 to 2021
8.6         360° market analysis for offshore wind power development to 2021
8.7         Challenge and opportunities for offshore wind market development

9.  Special Theme: Offshore Wind Shipping and Logistics
9.1         Macro overview of offshore wind shipping and logistics
9.1.1       Offshore market and geographical scoping
9.1.2       Definition of shipping and logistics
9.1.2.1        Wind turbine generator – inbound parts (assembly)
9.1.2.2        Installation (outbound)
9.1.2.3        Operations and maintenance
9.2         Strategic issues for offshore wind shipping and logistics
9.2.1       Overview of installation process in Europe
9.2.2       Outbound logistics (installation)
9.2.3       Types of companies involved and the roles they play
9.2.3.1        Shipping companies involved in offshore wind
9.2.3.2        Logistics companies involved in offshore wind
9.2.3.3        Ports involved in offshore wind
9.2.4       Case studies of strategies applied
9.3         Tactics and practices in offshore wind shipping and logistics
9.3.1       Practical experience
9.3.2       Best practices and what to avoid – case studies
9.3.3       Transport cost for offshore wind and its impact on installed cost per megawatt
9.4         Challenges and trends in offshore wind shipping and logistics
9.4.1       Impact on shipping and logistics of ever larger wind turbines
9.4.2       Risk management – global asset policy
9.4.3       Future changes in allocation of supply chain tasks
9.5         Conclusion: Offshore wind shipping and logistics
Index
List of Figures

Offshore wind power markets around the world
Location of sub-suppliers to the offshore wind industry
Geographic distribution of global offshore wind installations at end 2011
Progress of offshore wind turbine development 1991-2012
European offshore wind resource map
Frequency of tropical storms and typhoons over China, 1961-2008
Wind resource map in China
Offshore wind resource map in Japan
Offshore wind resource map in South Korea
Offshore wind resource map in the US
United States bathymetry distribution
National plans for offshore wind by 2020
Offshore wind projects in operation or under construction
UK offshore wind development process flow chart
German maritime zones
Offshore wind farms in the German North Sea
Offshore wind farms in the German Baltic Sea
Map of Danish offshore wind projects
Map of French offshore wind projects with concessions
Map of offshore wind projects in the Belgian North Sea
Map of Swedish offshore wind projects
Map of offshore wind projects in the Netherlands
Map of offshore wind projects in Ireland
Definition of wind resource areas in China
Process of offshore wind project approval in China
Approved and proposed offshore projects in US waters
Top 10 operators’ market share and presence by the end of 2011
Offshore project ownership by investor type by the end of 2011
Geographic distribution of Top-20 offshore wind development portfolios
Distribution of offshore wind development portfolios
Ownership of offshore wind project portfolios
Leading offshore wind project developers by country
Market share of offshore turbine suppliers as of end 2011
Offshore wind turbine suppliers’ market strength and position
Segmentation of offshore turbine size as of end 2011
First deployment of commercial offshore turbine technology as of end of 2011
Evolution of commercial offshore wind turbine technology 1991- 2012
Development timeline of medium speed Multi-MW offshore wind turbines
Development of direct drive technology for offshore wind turbine application
Installed floating offshore wind turbine projects
Foundations for Fukushima Recovery Experimental Offshore Floating Wind Farm
Road map of offshore wind turbine technology development 1991-2015
Classification of offshore turbine suppliers
Summary of established OEMs’ market strength in offshore wind sector
Segmentation of product size 1991-2011 (Siemens)
Siemens offshore wind turbine installations by country 1991-2011
Segmentation of product size 1994-2011 (Vestas)
Vestas offshore wind turbine installations by country 1994-2011
Breakdown of OEM project pipelines by country
Overview of features of the major fund classes
Offshore wind project overview of key phases
Offshore wind plant capital cost breakdown
O&M employees per MW
Offshore wind installations by plant size
O&M costs by category and year
O&M cost forecast
LCOE as a function of CAPEX and NCF
Breakdown of costs for a conventional offshore wind turbine
Overview of offshore wind foundations
Market share of different offshore wind foundation type
New monopile designs from DNV
Four selected foundation designs for Round 3 sites
Offshore wind ports in Northern Europe
Illustration of existing and future interconnectors
Forecast for offshore wind power installations 2012 to 2016
Cumulative global growth of offshore wind power capacity to 2021
Offshore wind farm installation case study with low degree of  turbine assembly at the site
Offshore wind farm installation case study with higher degree of assembly at sea
Installation of on-shore transformer station, export/array cables, and offshore substation

List of Tables

Installed global offshore wind power 2006 – 2011 (MW)
Offshore wind test sites
Status of offshore projects under construction in 2012
Operating offshore wind farms at end 2011
Commercial offshore turbine suppliers (end 2011 figures)
Overview of results from UK Crown Estate Rounds 1, 2, 2.5
Projects in The Crown Estate Round 3 & Scottish Territorial Waters
German offshore wind projects in operation
German pipeline of offshore wind projects in North Sea and Baltic Sea
German pipeline of pre-consent offshore wind projects in North Sea and Baltic Sea
Offshore wind projects in Denmark
Offshore wind project pipeline in Denmark
Offshore wind project pipeline in France
Offshore project pipeline in the Belgian North Sea
Offshore wind projects in Sweden
Offshore wind project pipeline in Sweden
Offshore wind projects pipeline in the Netherlands
Offshore wind project pipeline in Ireland
Offshore wind project pipeline for Finland
Overview of the first Chinese offshore concession projects
Comparison of purchase prices for onshore wind, intertidal and offshore wind
Chinese offshore wind project pipeline
Offshore wind project pipeline in Japan
Offshore wind project pipeline in South Korea
Wind Power Promotion Target of Commissioned Capacity in Taiwan (Unit: MW)
The Incentive Program of Offshore Wind Power Demonstration System in Taiwan
Regulated power purchase prices for offshore wind power in Taiwan
Offshore wind farm owners/operators by the end of 2011
Top ten offshore wind farm operators by the end of 2011
Top 20 global offshore wind development portfolios
Overview of offshore wind turbine deployment
Traditional Multi-MW (4.0-7.0 MW) turbines designed for offshore application
Multi-MW Medium Speed Turbines Designed for Offshore Application
Multi-MW direct drive turbines designed for offshore wind application
Multi-MW hydraulic & hybrid drive wind turbines designed for offshore application
Progress of R&D on super-size offshore wind turbines
Strategic analysis Siemens offshore
Strategic analysis Vestas offshore
Strategic analysis REpower offshore
Strategic analysis Sinovel offshore
Strategic analysis Areva Wind offshore
Strategic analysis BARD offshore
Strategic analysis GE Wind offshore
Strategic analysis Alstom Wind offshore
Strategic analysis XEMC Darwind offshore
Strategic analysis Goldwind offshore
Strategic analysis Mingyang offshore
Strategic analysis Mitsubishi offshore
Project pipelines held by Tier 1 offshore turbine suppliers
Project pipelines held by Tier 2 offshore turbine suppliers
Project pipelines held by Tier 3 offshore turbine suppliers
Overview of recent significant project finance deals in offshore wind
Profile for pension and insurance funds
Profile for Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs)
Profile for infrastructure funds
Profile for Private Equity (PE) funds
Profile for commercial banks
Baseline assumptions for example offshore wind farm
Overview of fundamental CAPEX components
Approximated CAPEX for offshore wind projects in the EU
Approximated CAPEX for offshore wind projects in China
Key factors influencing CAPEX
Overview of innovations impacting costs
Overview of fundamental OPEX components
Operations and maintenance costs for a 500 MW reference plant
Trends that will impact O&M costs
Major O&M strategy elements and best practices
Specific recommendations from UK’s Offshore Wind Cost Reduction Task Force
Sources of key components for selected wind turbine suppliers
Independent blade manufacturers
Gearbox suppliers for offshore wind turbines
Independent generator manufacturers with offshore wind applications
Suppliers of large bearings for offshore turbines
Independent power converter suppliers for offshore turbines
Independent power transformer suppliers for offshore turbines
Independent tower suppliers for offshore turbines
Main pitch drive unit suppliers for offshore wind
Main yaw gearbox suppliers for offshore wind
Independent suppliers of main control systems for offshore wind
Independent suppliers of castings to the offshore wind industry
Foundries supplying main forged parts to the offshore wind turbine industry
Suppliers of offshore wind foundations – gravity based structures
Suppliers of offshore wind steel structures
Cable suppliers to the offshore wind industry
Manufacturers of offshore wind farm sub-stations
Offshore wind specialist contractors
Types of offshore wind installation vessels
Offshore wind installation vessels  Jack-up barges and ships
Offshore wind installation vessels — Heavy lift vessels
Offshore wind installation vessels under construction and planned- Jack-up barges
Offshore wind installation vessels under construction and planned- Heavy lift vessels
Weight of commercial offshore wind turbines
Contractors for offshore wind cable installation
Cable laying vessels suitable for offshore wind
Suppliers of piling hammers to the offshore wind industry
Overview of ports for offshore wind in Germany & Denmark
Overview of ports for offshore wind in the UK
Overview of ports for offshore wind in the Netherlands, Belgium, France, & China
Port facilities across key functions
List of existing and future interconnectors
Forecast for offshore wind power development up to 2016 (MW)
Prediction for offshore wind development 2017 to 2021 (MW)
360° market overview of key offshore wind power markets
Shipping and logistics activities in six identified stages of offshore wind farm development
Danish freight forwarders with long-term involvement in wind energy transportation
Examples of more recent regional freight forwarder entrants
Global freight forwarders already active in or entering the offshore wind arena
Key European ports involved in offshore wind
ORECCA projections of port requirements to handle large scale OSWF installation
Port of Esbjerg 2020 wind energy expansion strategy and investment plan
Wind Scenario Model tool segregating offshore wind transport costs through 2050