Table of Contents
World demand to rise over 5% annually through 2018
Worldwide demand for buses is projected to rise more than five percent per annum to over 600,000 units in 2018, twice as fast as the 2008-2013 rate of increase. The number of buses in use worldwide is expected to exceed eight million units in 2018. Five major trends will fuel growth:
• Expansion in the size of the global urban population.
• Rising government investment in public transportation networks, particularly bus rapid transit systems, to reduce traffic congestion and improve air quality.
• Growth in the number and size of private transportation companies.
• Climbing worldwide sales of electric, hybrid, compressed natural gas (CNG), and liquefied natural gas (LNG) models, as many countries adopt more stringent emissions standards and environmental considerations grow in importance.
• Growth in the use of Type C and other school bus models because of government efforts to expand access to education, safety concerns, and more favorable conditions in the large US market. However, global bus sales increases will be restrained by rising demand for and use of motorcycles and light motor vehicles for transportation as income levels climb in many developing nations.
The expansion of rail transportation networks around the world is also expected to moderate bus market growth.
Asia/Pacific region to post largest gains in demand
The Asia/Pacific region is projected to account for more than three-fifths of all new bus demand through 2018. Growth is expected to pick up in both India and China, the region’s two largest bus markets, after declining moderately during the second part of the 2008-2013 period. Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea are also expected to perform considerably better between 2013 and 2018 as older buses are replaced, often with alternative fuel models, while Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, and other developing nations will continue to see impressive bus sales growth. Suppliers to the Asia/Pacific bus market will benefit greatly from further government spending on bus transportation networks and the expansion of the tourism and private transportation industries. Sales of Type C and other purposebuilt school buses are also expected to advance sharply, especially in China.
Growth to accelerate in North America, Western Europe
Following a period of sizable losses, demand for buses in North America and Western Europe is projected to rebound noticeably, as sales of electric, hybrid, CNG, and LNG buses grow. Since 2003, demand for these models has increased dramatically in these two regions from relatively small existing market bases because of the adoption of more stringent emissions standards (e.g., Euro VI for buses in December 2013), and this trend is expected to continue. Many cities, private transportation companies, and other end users have become much more sensitive to environmental issues. In addition, suppliers to the North American market will benefit from a rebound in Type C school bus sales, while Western Europe is expected to post gains in demand for private and public transit buses and motor coaches to replace aging fleets.
Difficult economic conditions in many West European countries caused governments to delay transit bus replacement.
This upcoming industry study, World Buses, presents historical demand data plus forecasts for 2018 and 2023 by fuel type, product, world region, and for 26 countries. The study also analyzes market environment factors, details the industry structure, assesses company market share and profiles 41 industry participants worldwide.
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