World Buses Industry

• Publication date: November 2012
• Report size: 379 pages

World demand to rise 5% annually through 2016 The world market for buses is projected to climb 5.0 percent annually to 631,000 units in 2016. Product sales will expand at an even faster pace in dollar terms, rising 6.2 percent per year through 2016 to $61.5 billion due to increases in average bus prices. Demand will be spurred by efforts to reduce air pollution and traffic congestion in metropolitan areas as urban populations conti...

World demand to rise 5% annually through 2016

The world market for buses is projected to climb 5.0 percent annually to 631,000 units in 2016. Product sales will expand at an even faster pace in dollar terms, rising 6.2 percent per year through 2016 to $61.5 billion due to increases in average bus prices. Demand will be spurred by efforts to reduce air pollution and traffic congestion in metropolitan areas as urban populations continue to grow, by volatile fuel costs making public transportation more attractive, and by the ongoing development of public transportation infrastructures, including bus rapid transit systems, in a number of developing countries. An upturn in bus spending in developed nations such as France, Japan, and the US will also contribute to overall sales advances, as tax revenues climb along with GDP and provide government agencies with the funds needed to both replace older vehicles and expand current fleets. In addition, higher disposable income levels will allow more tourists to travel via motor coach to vacation venues.

Asia/Pacific region to see strongest growth in demand

In a continuation of recent trends, the Asia/Pacific region is forecast to register the strongest market advances through 2016, fueled by robust economic growth and the expansion of urban transit systems, particularly in China and India. China alone will account for three-fifths of all new bus demand globally between 2011 and 2016. The Africa/Mideast region will post the second fastest gains, supported by further development of public transportation infrastructures, most notably in Nigeria, where bus demand will expand 14 percent annually through 2016 from a relatively small current base, the fastest rate of growth of any major market in the world. North America will record the next strongest market advances, followed by Eastern Europe and Western Europe. Bus sales in all of these regions will be spurred by generally healthy economic conditions, increased urbanization, and an upturn in government spending. In Central and South America, on the other hand, bus demand is expected to decline modestly between 2011 and 2016. This will be due to a drop in bus sales in Brazil from an unusually high level in 2011, when vehicle prebuys in advance of new emissions standards that went into effect in 2012 caused demand to surge.

Type C school buses to be fastest growing product

The market for Type C school buses is projected to expand at the strongest pace of any major product type through 2016. Demand will be driven largely by increased sales in China, where Type C bus sales will expand rapidly from a small existing base because of safety concerns with other types of buses currently used to transport students. Transit bus demand will climb at the next fastest rate, stimulated by growth in urban populations and by efforts to reduce traffic congestion and improve air quality. The market for motor coaches, which accounts for the largest portion of world bus sales, will increase at a somewhat slower pace, bolstered by rising per capita incomes and vacation travel spending. Demand for all other buses, which include shuttles and other smaller vehicles based on a medium-duty chassis, will expand at the slowest rate, although gains will be roughly the same as those registered from 2006 to 2011, driven by a pickup in tourism and travel spending.

Study coverage

This upcoming industry study presents historical demand data for 2001, 2006 and 2011, plus forecasts for 2016 and 2021 by bus type, world regional market, and for 22 major national markets. The study also considers market environment factors, assesses industry structure, evaluates company market share, and profiles 37 competitors in the global industry.

Global Road Passenger Transport Industry

TABLE OF CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION xi

I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1

II. MARKET ENVIRONMENT 4

General 4
World Economic Overview 5
Recent Historical Trends 5
World Economic Outlook 7
Personal Income Trends 11
World Demographic Overview 13
Population 14
Urban Population 15
World Light Vehicle Overview 17
Light Vehicle Production 18
Light Vehicle Sales 20
Energy Prices 22
Technology Trends 26
Legal & Regulatory Environment 28
Pricing Trends 32

III. WORLD SUPPLY & DEMAND 35

General 35
Regional Overview 36
Demand 37
Park 42
Production 44
International Trade 47
Demand by Product 48
Motor Coaches 51
Transit Buses 53
Other Buses 56
Demand by Fuel Type 60
Bus Rapid Transit Systems 63

IV. NORTH AMERICA 66

General 66
Bus Supply & Demand 67
Bus Market Outlook 70
United States 72
Canada 78
Mexico 83

V. WESTERN EUROPE 89

General 89
Bus Supply & Demand 90
Bus Market Outlook 93
France 95
Germany 100
United Kingdom 105
Spain 110
Italy 115
Other Western Europe 120
Sweden 126
Belgium 127
All Other 128

VI. ASIA/PACIFIC 130

General 130
Bus Supply & Demand 131
Bus Market Outlook 134
China 136
India 143
Indonesia 148
Japan 153
Thailand 159
South Korea 164
Other Asia/Pacific 170
Australia 176
Taiwan 178
All Other 179

VII. OTHER REGIONS 180

Central & South America 180
Bus Supply & Demand 181
Bus Market Outlook 183
Brazil 185
Other Central & South America 191
Eastern Europe 196
Bus Supply & Demand 198
Bus Market Outlook 200
Russia 202
Other Eastern Europe 208
Poland 214
Czech Republic 215
All Other 216
Africa/Mideast 217
Bus Supply & Demand 219
Bus Market Outlook 221
Turkey 224
Iran 229
Nigeria 234
Other Africa/Mideast 240

VIII. INDUSTRY STRUCTURE 248

General 248
Industry Composition 249
Market Share 251
Research & Product Development 255
Manufacturing 257
Marketing & Distribution 259
Cooperative Agreements 261
Financial Issues & Requirements 269
Mergers & Acquisitions 269
Company Profiles 272
Advanced Public Transport Systems, see VDL Groep
Alexander Dennis Limited 273
Allied Specialty Vehicles Incorporated 276
Anhui Ankai Automobile Company Limited 277
Ashok Leyland Limited 279
Berkshire Hathaway Incorporated 281
Blue Bird Corporation 283
Champion Bus, see Thor Industries
Collins Bus, see Allied Specialty Vehicles
Consorcio G Grupo Dina SA de CV 285
Daewoo Bus Corporation 286
Daimler AG 288
Detroit Diesel, see Daimler
Dina Camiones, see Consorcio G Grupo Dina
Dongfeng Motor Corporation Company Limited 294
Eicher Motors Limited 295
ElDorado National California, see Thor Industries
Elkhart Coach, see Berkshire Hathaway
EvoBus, see Daimler
Federal Coach Bus, see Berkshire Hathaway
Fiat Industrial SpA 296
Fiat SpA 298
Forest River, see Berkshire Hathaway
GAZ OAO 299
General Motors Company 300
Gillig LLC 302
Glaval Bus, see Berkshire Hathaway
Goshen Coach, see Thor Industries
Haci Ömer Sabanci Holding A ? 303
Hino Motors, see Toyota Motor
Hyundai Motor Company 305
IC Bus, see Navistar International
Irizar S Cooperativa 307
IRIZAR-TVS, see Ashok Leyland and Irizar S
Cooperativa
Iveco Irisbus, see Fiat Industrial
Liaoning SG Automotive Group Company Limited 309
Mahindra Navistar Engines Private, see Navistar
International
MAN SE 310
Marcopolo SA 313
Micro Bird, see Blue Bird
Minsky Avtomobilny Zavod JSC 316
Mitsubishi Fuso Truck and Bus, see Daimler
Motor Coach Industries Incorporated 317
Navistar International Corporation 318
NEOPLAN Bus, see MAN
New Flyer Industries Incorporated 322
North American Bus Industries Incorporated 324
Nova Bus, see Volvo
Optare, see Ashok Leyland
Polomex, see Daimler and Marcopolo
Prevost Car, see Volvo
Proterra Incorporated 326
Scania AB 328
Solaris Bus & Coach SA 331
Starcraft Bus, see Berkshire Hathaway
Superpolo, see Marcopolo
Tata Marcopolo Motors, see Marcopolo and Tata Motors
Tata Motors Limited 333
Temsa Sanayi ve Ticaret, see Haci Ömer Sabanci Holding
A ?
Thomas Built Buses, see Daimler
Thor Industries Incorporated 335
Toyota Motor Corporation 337
UD Trucks, see Volvo
Van Hool NV 341
VDL Groep BV 342
VE Commercial Vehicles, see Volvo
Volgren Australia, see Marcopolo
Volvo AB 345
Workhorse Custom Chassis, see Navistar International
Wright Group Limited 349
Xiamen King Long Motor Company Limited 350
Yangzhou Yaxing Motor Coach Company Limited 352
Zhengzhou Yutong Bus Company Limited 353
Zhongtong Bus Holding Company Limited 355
Zonda Group 356
Other Companies Mentioned in Study 357

LIST OF TABLES

SECTION I -- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Summary Table 3

SECTION II -- MARKET ENVIRONMENT

1 World Gross Domestic Product by Region 11
2 World Per Capita GDP 13
3 World Population by Region & Age 15
4 World Urban Population by Region 17
5 World Light Vehicle Production by Region 20
6 World Light Vehicle Sales by Region 22

SECTION III -- WORLD SUPPLY & DEMAND

1 World Bus Demand by Region 39
2 World Buses in Use by Region 43
3 World Bus Production by Region 46
4 World Bus Net Exports 48
5 World Bus Demand by Product 50
6 World Motor Coach Demand by Region 53
7 World Transit Bus Demand by Region 56
8 World Demand for Other Buses by Product & Region 59
9 World Bus Demand by Fuel Type 62

SECTION IV -- NORTH AMERICA

1 North America: Bus Supply & Demand 69
2 North America: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product
& Fuel Type 72
3 United States: Bus Supply & Demand 76
4 United States: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 78
5 Canada: Bus Supply & Demand 81
6 Canada: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 83
7 Mexico: Bus Supply & Demand 86
8 Mexico: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 88

SECTION V -- WESTERN EUROPE

1 Western Europe: Bus Supply & Demand 92
2 Western Europe: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product
& Fuel Type 95
3 France: Bus Supply & Demand 98
4 France: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 100
5 Germany: Bus Supply & Demand 103
6 Germany: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 105
7 United Kingdom: Bus Supply & Demand 108
8 United Kingdom: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 110
9 Spain: Bus Supply & Demand 113
10 Spain: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 115
11 Italy: Bus Supply & Demand 118
12 Italy: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 120
13 Other Western Europe: Bus Supply & Demand 123
14 Other Western Europe: Buses in Use & Bus Demand
by Product 125
15 Other Western Europe: Bus Supply & Demand by Country 126

SECTION VI -- ASIA/PACIFIC

1 Asia/Pacific: Bus Supply & Demand 133
2 Asia/Pacific: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product
& Fuel Type 136
3 China: Bus Supply & Demand 141
4 China: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 143
5 India: Bus Supply & Demand 146
6 India: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 148
7 Indonesia: Bus Supply & Demand 151
8 Indonesia: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 153
9 Japan: Bus Supply & Demand 157
10 Japan: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 159
11 Thailand: Bus Supply & Demand 162
12 Thailand: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 164
13 South Korea: Bus Supply & Demand 168
14 South Korea: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 169
15 Other Asia/Pacific: Bus Supply & Demand 173
16 Other Asia/Pacific: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 175
17 Other Asia/Pacific: Bus Supply & Demand by Country 176

SECTION VII -- OTHER REGIONS

1 Central & South America: Bus Supply & Demand 183
2 Central & South America: Buses in Use & Bus Demand
by Product & Fuel Type 185
3 Brazil: Bus Supply & Demand 189
4 Brazil: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 191
5 Other Central & South America: Bus Supply & Demand 194
6 Other Central & South America: Buses in Use & Bus
Demand by Product 196
7 Eastern Europe: Bus Supply & Demand 199
8 Eastern Europe: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product
& Fuel Type 202
9 Russia: Bus Supply & Demand 206
10 Russia: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 208
11 Other Eastern Europe: Bus Supply & Demand 211
12 Other Eastern Europe: Buses in Use & Bus Demand
by Product 213
13 Other Eastern Europe: Bus Supply & Bus Demand
by Country 214
14 Africa/Mideast: Bus Supply & Demand 220
15 Africa/Mideast: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product
& Fuel Type 223
16 Turkey: Bus Supply & Demand 227
17 Turkey: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 229
18 Iran: Bus Supply & Demand 232
19 Iran: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 234
20 Nigeria: Bus Supply & Demand 238
21 Nigeria: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 240
22 Other Africa/Mideast: Bus Supply & Demand 245
23 Other Africa/Mideast: Buses in Use & Bus Demand
by Product 247

SECTION VIII -- INDUSTRY STRUCTURE

1 Bus Sales for Selected Manufacturers, 2011 250
2 Selected Cooperative Agreements 264
3 Selected Acquisitions & Divestitures 271

LIST OF CHARTS

SECTION II -- MARKET ENVIRONMENT

1 Average Annual Spot Prices for Crude Oil, 2001-2011 24
2 Average Annual Spot Prices for Natural Gas, 2001-2011 25
3 World Average Bus Prices, 2001-2021 34

SECTION III -- WORLD SUPPLY & DEMAND

1 World Bus Demand by Region, 2011 40
2 Change in Bus Demand Between 2011 & 2016 by Region 40
3 World Bus Demand: Projected 2011-2016 Annual Rate
of Growth 41
4 World Buses in Use by Region, 2011 44
5 World Bus Production by Region, 2011 46
6 World Bus Demand by Product, 2011 50
7 Change in Bus Demand by Product, 2006 to 2011
& 2011 to 2016 51
8 World Bus Demand by Fuel Type, 2011 63
9 World Bus Rapid Transit Systems by Region, 2012 65

SECTION IV -- NORTH AMERICA
1 North America: Bus Demand by Country, 2011 70
SECTION V -- WESTERN EUROPE
1 Western Europe: Bus Demand by Country, 2011 93
SECTION VI -- ASIA/PACIFIC
1 Asia/Pacific: Bus Demand by Country, 2011 134
SECTION VII -- OTHER REGIONS
1 Eastern Europe: Bus Demand by Country, 2011 200
2 Africa/Mideast: Bus Demand by Country, 2011 221
SECTION VIII -- INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
1 World Bus Market Share, 2011 252