Solar Demand Outlook: North America

  • December 2012
  • -
  • Navigant Research
  • -
  • 57 pages

Applications, Regional Demand Drivers, Incentive Programs, and Market Forecasts

As a significant correction continues to roil the worldwide solar power industry, markets in North America are struggling to find stable business models and predictable, long-term growth. In both the United States and Canada, shifts in government policy and incentives have had significant impacts on both solar technology suppliers and system developers and operators. Continued low prices for PV technology have led to low-to-negative margins among manufacturers, company failures, and instances of inferior quality module products and poorly designed systems reaching the market.
Nevertheless, the industry will continue to expand even as profitability remains elusive. Surviving companies will emerge from this difficult period stronger, with genuinely lower costs, and likely more comfortable margins. Under the most likely growth scenario, regional demand will grow from just over 2,500 megawatts (MW) in 2011 to more than 7,000 MW in 2014.
This report provides an overview of regional demand growth for North America from 2011 through 2014. The report details three different forecast scenarios: reduced incentives, conservative, and accelerated. Five industry application segments – remote industrial; remote habitation; consumer power; grid-connected residential, commercial, and utility; and consumer indoor – are examined in depth, and regulatory and macroeconomic factors influencing the outlook for solar demand are analyzed for both Canada and the United States. The report also includes forecasts for the share of each major application segment through 2021.

Key Questions Addressed:

What are the growth prospects for solar PV in North America over the next several years?
What are the primary metrics for the North American solar PV industry?
What factors affect solar PV pricing in the region?
What are the leading short-term indicators for the solar power industry in North America?
What are the major trends for solar technology production, capacity, and shipments in North America?
What are the major trends and developments in North America that vendors, project developers, and policymakers should be aware of?
What are the macroeconomic and policy/regulatory factors influencing the solar PV market in North America over the next several years?

Who needs this report?

-Solar PV producers
-Technology developers
-Solar PV installers and project developers
-Government agencies and policymakers
-Investor community

Table Of Contents

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary
1.1   Introduction
1.2   Regional Overview
1.3   Assumptions
1.4   United States
1.5   Canada

2. Applications
2.1   Overview
2.2   Global Application Breakout
2.3   North American Breakout

3. United States
3.1   Overview
3.1.1     U.S. Market Description
3.1.2     CSP and CPV in the U.S. Market
3.1.3     U.S. State Incentive Program Tables
3.1.4     Overview of U.S. States
3.1.4.1     U.S.  Federal Incentives
3.1.4.2     Investment Tax Credits (ITCs)
3.1.4.3     Modified Accelerated Cost Recovery System (MACRS)
3.1.4.4     Clean Renewable Energy Bonds (CREBs)
3.1.4.5     Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS)
3.1.4.6     Net Metering and Interconnection
3.1.4.7     Renewable Energy Credits (RECs)
3.1.4.8     State and Local Incentives and Mandates
3.1.4.9     State and Local Feed-in Tariffs
3.1.5     Arizona
3.1.6     California
3.1.7     Florida
3.1.8     Massachusetts
3.1.9     New Jersey

4. Canada
4.1   Overview
4.1.1     Canada’s PV Incentive Programs

5. Acronym and Abbreviation List

6. Table of Contents

7. Table of Charts and Figures

8. Assumptions, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

Regional Demand Growth, Reduced Incentives, Conservative, and Accelerated Forecasts, North America: 2011-2014
Application Breakout, North America: 2011
Application Breakout, United States: 2011
Application Breakout, Canada: 2011

List of Tables

Regional Demand Growth, Reduced Incentives, Conservative, and Accelerated Forecasts, North America: 2011-2014
Major Photovoltaic Market Categories
Market Share by Major Application, Historic and Forecasted Percentile Values: 2001-2021
Regional Application Breakout, North America: 2009-2011
Electricity Rates by Use Segment, United States: 2011, 2012
Application Forecast, Reduced Incentives, Conservative, and Accelerated Scenarios, United States: 2006-2014
System Price Comparison, United States: 2007-2012 Estimate
Utility Scale and Commercial System Price/Cost Comparison
CSP, CPV, and PV Overview
Overview of States with >10 Solar Incentive Programs
Overview of States with State Market Overview, United States: 2012
State Market Overview, United States: 2014
Overview of Federal Incentives for Solar, United States
Overview of Arizona Incentive Programs
CSI Step Data
CSI Step Data
Summary of Incentives for California
Overview of Florida Incentive Programs
Overview of Massachusetts Incentive Programs
Overview of New Jersey Incentive Programs
Ontario Power Authority Feed-in Tariff
General Assumptions Used in the Analysis of Global Markets

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