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  5. > Strategic Analysis of Engine Downsizing Trends of North American Heavy-duty Truck Manufacturers

This research analyzes the North American heavy-duty truck engine market, and it outlines key trends driving engine downsizing in the heavy-duty industry. The study is a combination of industry-wide primary research, with key OEMs, and comprehensive secondary research. The findings have been presented in the form a typical strategic research service, which include market drivers, restraints, industry benefits and challenges, quantitative forecasts and OEM profiles. The study gives highly actionable content in the form of engine downsizing trend within each key North American heavy-duty OEM. The study also compares the preference for advanced powertrain technologies for each OEM.
Powertrain Downsizing—Big 5 Predictions
Engine downsizing is gaining preference in the North American heavy-duty (HD) truck industry. In conjunction with other advanced technologies, this is expected to drive reduction of fuel consumption and emission by at least xx percent by 2018. This is also expected to provide flexibility in engine right-sizing for major HD OEMs, which are increasingly adopting platform-based truck production.
Weighted average reduction in engine displacement is estimated through OEM/vocation-based analysis to be between two to three percent for the industry. In 2011, the weighted average displacement was xxto xx L, which by 2018 is expected to shift toxx to xx L. Power output for the same period is expected to increase from the current xx to xx HP to xxtoxx HP range.
Dominance of xx L engines is expected to continue in the Class 8 long haul segment, although its share within the long haul segment will decline. Driven by factors such as the downsizing of activities of OEMs, growth in the regional/urban haul segment, Cummins Inc.’s larger role in the xx to xx L range, vertical integration within the industry, and regulatory pressures, the installation of xxto xx L engines is expected to increase and come on par with xx to xx L engines by 2018.
Daimler trucks and Volvo trucks are two participants expected to be the strongest proponents of downsizing in the forecasted period. Navistar Inc. will pursue increased downsizing activities post 2015, owing to its recently adopted SCR-based emission reduction strategy. Cummins Inc. is expected to increase downsizing activities gradually from 2013 until 2018.
Key factors such as the rising proliferation of CNG/LNG trucks; the rising utilization of technologies such as downspeeding, advanced turbocharging, waste heat recovery, and in-cylinder improvements; and the rising proliferation of semi-automatic transmissions are expected to bridge the demand-supply gap for downsized engines.

Table Of Contents

Strategic Analysis of Engine Downsizing Trends of North American Heavy-duty Truck Manufacturers
TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive Summary 4
Research Objective, Scope, Methodology, and Background 17
Definitions and Segmentation 24
Mega Trends and Industry Convergence Implications 30
Market Dynamics and Impact on Powertrain Technologies—North America 35
HD Engine Downsizing in North America—Overview 49
Engine Downsizing Strategies—North America OEMs 64
Conclusions and Strategic Recommendations 89
Appendix 94
SuperTruck Program—Key Insights 95

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