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Italy Renewables Report Q1 2016

  • January 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 45 pages

BMI View: We maintain our muted non-hydro renewables forecast for this quarter, as punitive subsidy cuts over the last three years and uncertainty over the specifics over the long-term renewables expansion plans will continue to be potent obstacles to a rebound in investor sentiment. While we are seeing some movements on the behalf of the Italian government to restart growth, and PV solar is reaching grid parity in some parts of the country, a pick-up in growth will be contingent on an improvement in the government track record for renewables policy.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

-In November, a regulation from the Italian Ministry of Economic Development that will extend the incentives available to non-photovoltaic (PV) renewables capacity until the end of 2016 was approved by all Italian legislative bodies. The decree must be approved by the European Commission by end of January 2016 to be implemented. As a part of the regulation, the subsidy ceiling will be maintained at EUR6.8bn, but a revision to the method of accounting for new projects should free up about EUR400mn that would be made available to new projects.

-Solar power is reaching grid parity in certain parts of Italy, which in turn could help boost growth. Grid operator Terna's grid parity scenario aims for solar capacity to reach 23 gigawatts (GW) by 2020 and 30GW by 2020. We still believe that uncertainty over the country's regulatory framework will continue to warrant investor caution, particularly when considering that Spain implemented profit caps on renewables projects, and Italy has been contemplating the implementation of levies on the segment.

Table Of Contents

Italy Renewables Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Renewables Headline Forecasts (Italy 2014-2020) 7
Latest Updates And Structural Trends 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Italy Renewables Forecast Scenario 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 12
Table: Options Open To Solar Operators Under The New Law 16
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Italy 2013-2018) 21
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Italy 2019-2024) 22
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Italy 2013-2018) 23
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Italy 2019-2024) 24
Italy Renewables Project Database 25
Table: Italy - Top 5 Renewables Projects By Capacity (MW) 25
Industry Risk/Reward Index 26
Italy Renewables Risk/Reward Index 26
Rewards 26
Risks 26
Market Overview 28
Sustainable Energy Policy and Infrastructure 28
Targets 28
Subsidies 29
Infrastructure 31
Table: Italy's Recent Power Transmission Sector Developments 33
Competitive Landscape 36
Enel 36
Edison 37
Gestore dei Servizi Energetici (GSE) 37
Terna 37
Vestas Wind Systems 38
Glossary 39
Table: Glossary Of Terms 39
Methodology 40
Methodology And Sources 40
Industry Forecast Methodology 40
Sources 42
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 42
Table: Renewables Risk/Reward Index Indicators 44
Table: Weighting Indicators 45

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