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Uganda Food and Drink Report Q1 2016

  • December 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 72 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We maintain our view that economic growth in Uganda will quicken in pace in 2015, driven bya fast-growing consumer segment and by accelerating investment in the infrastructure and extractivesectors. Nevertheless, we have revised downwards our forecast real GDP growth to 5.4% in 2015 and 5.0%in 2016 (from 6.0% in both years). The formal food and drink sector will grow considerably over thecoming years, from a low base, as international firms such as The Coca-Cola Company and regional firmssuch as Shoprite look for fast-growing and underdeveloped regions. However, the rate of urbanisation inUganda is not increasing in line with the country's population growth and this may persuade investors inthe formalised retail sector to look elsewhere first.Credit conditions in Uganda have worsened in recent months, with the Bank of Uganda (BoU) hiking itsbenchmark interest rate by 100 basis points (bps) to 17.00% on 20 October 2015. The move was in line withour expectation that further monetary tightening would be necessary before the end of 2015 in the face ofrising inflation expectations and persistent currency weakness. Moreover, with inflation creeping higher onthe back of increased food price pressures and the pass-through effects of shilling weakness still filteringthrough, we think the BoU will continue to keep things tight well into 2016 (see 'Impact Of MonetaryTightening To Be Felt In 2016', October 21).

Table Of Contents

Uganda Food and Drink Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Industry Forecast 9
Food 9
Food Consumption 9
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data and Forecasts (Uganda 2012-2019) 12
Confectionery 12
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Uganda 2012-2019) 12
Dairy 13
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Uganda 2012-2019) 13
Drink 14
Alcoholic Drinks 14
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Uganda 2012-2019) 15
Soft Drinks 15
Table: Carbonated Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Uganda 2012-2019) 17
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Uganda 2012-2019) 17
Mass Grocery Retail 18
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data and Forecasts (Uganda 2012-2019) 20
Macroeconomic Forecast 21
Economic Analysis 21
Table: Economic Activity (Uganda 2010-2019) 25
Industry Risk Reward Index 26
Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Index 26
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Q415 Food and Drink Risk/Reward Index 27
Market Overview 30
East Africa Market Overview 30
Table: Profitability And Capital Expenditure Data For Selected African Beer Manufacturers 37
Competitive Landscape 38
Table: Key Players In East Africa's Food and Drink Sector 38
Global Industry Overview 39
Table: Selected Markets - Selected Industry and Macroeconomic Indicators - Historical and Forecast 46
Table: Australia, Uk And Usa Estimated Herfindahl-Hirschman Index Scores - Food Retail Industry 55
Table: UAE Food Retail Sales By Format - Historical and Forecast 56
Table: Food and Drink Core Views - Q315 Roundup 59
Demographic Forecast 61
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Uganda 1990-2025) 62
Table: Key Population Ratios (Uganda 1990-2025) 62
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Uganda 1990-2025) 63
Table: Population By Age Group (Uganda 1990-2025) 63
Table: Population By Age Group % (Uganda 1990-2025) 64
Glossary 66
Food and Drink 66
Mass Grocery Retail 66
Methodology 68
Industry Forecast Methodology 68
Sector-Specific Methodology 69
Sources 69
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 70
Table: Food and Drink Risk/Reward Index Indicators 71
Table: Weighting 72

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