EpiCast Report: Osteoporosis - Epidemiology Forecast to 2022

• Publication date: December 2012
• Report size: 40 pages

EpiCast Report: Osteoporosis - Epidemiology Forecast to 2022 Summary The lifetime risk of osteoporotic fracture is 50% in women and 10%–30% in men (Randell et al., 1995). The morbidity and mortality associated with osteoporotic fractures make osteoporosis a global health burden, second only to cardiovascular disease (Woolf, 2000). Over the next decade, there will be a 26.8% increase in the prevalent cases of...

EpiCast Report: Osteoporosis - Epidemiology Forecast to 2022



Summary



The lifetime risk of osteoporotic fracture is 50% in women and 10%–30% in men (Randell et al., 1995). The morbidity and mortality associated with osteoporotic fractures make osteoporosis a global health burden, second only to cardiovascular disease (Woolf, 2000). Over the next decade, there will be a 26.8% increase in the prevalent cases of osteoporosis in the nine markets. In 2012, there were 164 million prevalent cases of osteoporosis in the nine markets, with more than 100 million cases in India and China. GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that there will be 208 million prevalent cases in the nine markets by 2022, with 142 million cases in India and China. GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the number of prevalent cases of osteoporosis will increase dramatically in all nine markets during the forecast period. Because they chose a conservative approach and applied the same prevalence rate during the forecast period, the change in the number of prevalent cases can be attributed to the projected changing demographics in the population over the age of 40 in each of the nine markets. In the absence of comparable historical data for osteoporosis, GlobalData epidemiologists assumed that the most recently published prevalence data would be reflective of the disease prevalence over the next decade. However, such an approach is also likely to underestimate the number of prevalent cases of osteoporosis in the emerging markets.



Scope


- The Osteoporosis EpiCast Report provide an overview of the risk factors and global trends of osteoporosis in seven major markets (the US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, and Japan) in addition to emerging markets—India and China.
- It includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast of osteoporosis prevalence segmented by gender and age (40–49, 50–59, 60–69, 70–79, and =80 years).



Reasons to buy


- Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global osteoporosis market.
- Quantify patient populations in the global osteoporosis market to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.
- Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the age group and gender that present the best opportunities for osteoporosis therapeutics in each of the markets covered.
- Quantify patient populations that had vertebral fractures confirmed by lateral X-rays and osteoporosis confirmed by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), based on the standardized World Health Organization (WHO) disease definition.

Pathology Industry in Asia

Table of Contents


1 Table of CContents 4
1.1 List of Tables 5
1.2 List of Figures 5
2 Introduction 6
2.1 Catalyst 6
3 Epidemiology 7
3.1 Risk Factors and Comorbidities 7
3.1.1 Advanced age and female sex are the leading risk factors for osteoporosis 7
3.1.2 Low body mass index and physical inactivity can lead to significant bone loss 8
3.1.3 Previous osteoporotic fracture increases risk of subsequent fracture 8
3.1.4 Certain diseases and medications increase the risk of osteoporosis 9
3.1.5 Malnutrition and a nutrient-poor diet decrease BMD 9
3.1.6 Smoking is an independent risk factor for osteoporosis 9
3.1.7 Limited daily alcohol consumption may have a protective effect 10
3.2 Global Trends 10
3.2.1 The US 11
3.2.2 Asia 12
3.3 Forecast Methodology 13
3.3.1 Sources Used 15
3.3.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods 18
3.3.3 Sources Not Used 21
3.4 Epidemiology Forecast (2012-2022) 22
3.4.1 Total Prevalent Cases of Osteoporosis 22
3.4.2 Age-Specific Prevalent Cases of Osteoporosis 23
3.4.3 Sex-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of Osteoporosis 25
3.5 Discussion 26
3.5.1 The Strength of GlobalData's Epidemiologic Projections 28
4 Appendix 29
4.1 Bibliography 29
4.2 About the Authors 36
4.2.1 Epidemiologists 36
4.2.2 Reviewers 36
4.2.3 Global Director of Epidemiology and Clinical Trials Analysis 38
4.2.4 Global Head of Healthcare 38
4.3 About GlobalData 39
4.4 About EpiCast 39
4.5 Contact Us 39
4.6 Disclaimer 40



List of Tables


Table 1: Nine Major Markets, Sources of Osteoporosis Prevalence Data 14
Table 2: Nine Major Markets, Prevalent Cases of Osteoporosis, N (millions), 2012-2022 22
Table 3: Nine Major Markets, Prevalent Cases of Osteoporosis, By Age, N (millions), %, 2012 24



List of Figures


Figure 1: Nine Major Markets, Prevalent Cases of Osteoporosis, By Age, N (millions), 2012 25
Figure 2: Nine Major Markets, Prevalent Cases of Osteoporosis, By Sex, N, 2012 26