2008 Report on China's Non-ferrous Metal (NFM) Industry
China's non-ferrous metal (NFM) industry moved to the fast-growth track in 2002. At that time, China had been number one in the world in terms of outputs of NFM for six years in a row from 2002 through 2007. In 2007, the revenue of China's entire NFM industry reached RMB1, 850bn, up by 37.29% year-on-year, with the amount of profit plus taxes of RMB200bn, up by 22.65%; the profit alone reached RMB140bn, up by 27.24%.
Table: Overall Operation of China's NFM Industry 2001-2007
After years of rapid growth, China's NFM industry has entered into a steady expansion period, as a result of: (1) The output and consumption of NFM of China account for about 30% of that world total, while China's population is only 22% of the world's, i.e. the consumption per capita has surpassed the world average. (2) The prices of energy sources keep rising, leading to the rising cost of China's NFM production, which in turn has compromised the profitability of China's companies, thus that they are less interested in rapid investment and rapid expansion. (3) China's extensive economy has led to the short supply of resources and energy sources in the country, forcing the government to issue policies for the NFM industry to change the development model which has mainly focused on expansion.
China's NFM industry will have a few of these main features in the next few years:
1. The output increase of China's NFM industry will become steady instead of rapidly increasing. It is expected that the annual rate of increase for the output would be about 10% during the country's 11th "Five-Year Plan", while consumption would decrease.
2. The production cost of China's NFM industry will keep increasing as the prices of energy sources rise and the policies on prices of energy sources keep reforming. As a result, China's companies would face formidable challenges in terms of profitability.
3. Because of the competition from outside China, the country's NFM industry would change significantly. Industrial concentration would become high. On the other hand, monopolization is entering the industry, and large groups of companies would mark the development trend of the industry in the future.
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