The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has worsened its economic growth outlook for Ukraine for both 2012 and 2013 citing faster decline in industrial production in the last two quarter of 2012. In its latest Regional Economic Prospects report published in January, the EBRD said it expects Ukraine’s economy to post a zero growth in 2012 and expand by 1% in 2013, cutting its forecasts from earlier expected growth of 1% and 2.5%, respectively. Ukraine’s industrial production in 2012 contracted by 1.8% from 2011 with the annual fall in December alone deepening to 7.6% from 3.7% in November, according to data from the State Statistics Service.
Agricultural production showed no exception, declining by 4.5% y/y in 2012 versus a 19.9% growth in 2011. The crop production last year fell by an annual 8.2%, with commercial farms’ production going down by 10.9% and that of private farms decreasing by 4.6%. Animal goods production, on the other hand, increased by 3.8%. Specifically, output of commercial farms was higher by 7.6% and of private farms of 1.2%. According to preliminary data, the strongest annual output growth was registered in Khmelnytsky (+12.9%), Ternopil (+9.8%) and Kyiv (+9%) regions, while the steepest decline was reported in the regions of Dnipropetrovsk (-20.3%), Zaporizhzhia (-19.2%) and Odesa (-19.1%).
At the same time, the cost of the consumption basket products dropped by 5.5% in 2012, the agriculture ministry said. In particular, social sorts of bread became cheaper, as well as flour, macaroni products, cereals and vegetables. The price of sunflower seed oil fell by 4% and of potatoes - by 15%. Animal products grew cheaper as well: prices of beef went down by 8%, of pork by 6%, of milk and dairy products by between 7-10% and of poultry eggs by 16%.
Ukrainian agricultural exports increased by nearly 40% y/y to USD 17bn in 2012. Major buyers were the EU and CIS countries. Notably, Austria buys Ukrainian apples, while Poland is the major consumer of Ukrainian rye. Egypt and Spain were the largest buyers of Ukrainian wheat. About three quarters of Ukrainian barley is exported to Saudi Arabia.
Table Of Contents
Intellinews - Ukraine Food Sector Report -February 2013 Executive Summary Sector overview Grain Sector Sugar and Flavoring Sector Bread and Bakery Milk and Dairy Sector Meat Sector Fruits and Vegetables Sector Alcohol and Beverages Sector
Table 1 Food prices % y/y Table 2 Sugar exports in November Table 3 Sugar imports in November Table 4 Exports of caramel and confectionery in November Table 5 Flour imports in November Table 6 Cheese production in November Table 7 Cheese exports in November Table 8 Meat production in 2012 Table 9 Sausage production in November, tonnes Table 10 No of cattle in November Table 11 Poultry population in November Figure 1 Agriculture production index Figure 2 Production of grain crops Figure 3 Bread and bakery production in November Figure 4 Production of flour Figure 5 Production of high fat cheese Figure 6 No of cattle, (thsd head) Figure 7 Production of fruits and berries