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  5. > Brazil Renewables Report Q2 2016

Brazil Renewables Report Q2 2016

  • April 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 41 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: With the Brazilian economy's recession expected to worsen in 2016, the country's nonhydropowerrenewable market is expected to experience some headwinds as project financing becomesimpeded. Although auctions in 2015 showed great stability and even some minor growth in its awardlevels, obstacles such as high interest rates and a weakened currency have led us to maintain ourconservative overall estimates.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- For 2016, we expect overall non-hydro renewables to see a y-o-y capacity and generation growth of 9.1%and 5.7%, respectively, significantly below previous levels of 2015, as the wider economic downturnworsens with negative GDP growth rates of 3.7% forecast for 2016.

- The November 2015 auctions awarded contracts for onshore wind power projects totalling 548.2MW andsolar power projects totalling 929.34MW. The first auctions of 2016 have been postponed until April 29.- Based on the latest governmental PDE, solar capacity targets have been increased to 7GW by 2024. Ourexpectations of 3.77GW by 2024 remain significantly below that target. Wind power targets stand at24GW for 2024, with our own forecast estimating about 20.52GW of installed wind capacity.

- In March 2016, German renewable energy developer SOWITEC announced plans to spend BRL2bn(USD505.5mn) on the 501MW Parque Eólico Palmas dos Ventos wind project in Sergipe state.SOWITEC plans to finalise power purchase contracts for the project by end-2016. The project will bebuilt in three phases over five years, with construction expected to begin as early as 2017, and firstsupplies expected by 2020 at the earliest.

Table Of Contents

Brazil Renewables Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Renewables Headline Forecasts (Brazil 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Brazil Renewables Forecast Scenario 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 11
Table: Evolution Of Installed Capacity For Electricity Generation By Source, GW, 2014 And 2024 14
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2019) 20
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2020-2025) 21
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2019) 22
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2020-2025) 23
Brazil Renewables Projects Database 24
Table: Brazil - Top 10 Renewables Projects By Capacity, MW 24
Industry Risk/Reward Index 25
Brazil Renewables Risk/Reward Index 25
Rewards 25
Risks 25
Market Overview 27
Sustainable Energy Policy And Infrastructure 27
Targets 27
Table: Evolution of installed capacity for electricity generation by source, 2014 and 2024, in GW 28
Subsidies 28
Infrastructure 29
Competitive Landscape 31
Eletrobrás 32
Tractebel Energia 33
Vestas Wind Systems A/S 33
Acciona 33
Impsa 34
Glossary 35
Table: Glossary Of Terms 35
Methodology 36
Methodology And Sources 36
Industry Forecast Methodology 36
Sources 38
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 38
Table: Renewables Risk/Reward Index Indicators 40
Table: Weighting Indicators 41

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