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Intellinews - Albania Country Report - Janury 2013

  • February 2013
  • -
  • Emerging Markets Direct Media Holdings
  • -
  • 19 pages

The Albanian government has cut its economic growth estimate for this year to 3.1% from previously expected 4% and yet it is well above the forecasts of international organisations such as the World Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) that project a GDP growth of 1.6% and 2%, respectively, for 2013. Albania’s economic growth speeded up to 2.7% y/y in the third quarter of 2012 from 2.1% in the previous three months helped by expanding industrial sector with both the manufacturing and extracting sectors rising in Q3. Albania’s economic growth prospects in 2013 will continue to be dominated by country’s strong trade, investment and remittances ties to Greece and Italy, both of which face continued economic gloom.

Albania’s rising public debt continues to be a concern and is putting additional pressure on the country’s economic growth prospects. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) called on the government to introduce fiscal consolidation measures, including both spending cuts and strengthening of the budget revenue, in order to keep the debt at its current level by end-2013 and start reducing it afterwards.

Consumer price inflation in the country slightly accelerated in January after a slowdown in the previous month mainly due to faster growth in food prices. The average inflation rate equalled to 2% in 2012, down from 3.5% in 2011.
Albania’s foreign trade deficit narrowed by 9.1% y/y in 2012 and accounted for 23.2% of the projected full-year GDP. The smaller deficit came as exports increased while imports decreased.

In January Albania cancelled a long-awaited sale of state-owned oil firm Albpetrol as the winning consortium failed to come up with a down payment. Thus Albania failed to get the needed EUR 850mn in proceeds from Albpetrol privatisation into its state coffers.Albania also cancelled the licence of the local unit of CEZ that operates the country’s sole power distribution network blaming it for breaching the privatisation contract by not importing sufficient electricity and by not investing in the grid.

Table Of Contents

Intellinews - Albania Country Report - Janury 2013
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW

REAL SECTOR
1. GDP
2. Inflation
3. Industry and TRade

FISCAL SECTOR

FINANCIAL SECTOR

EXTERNAL SECTOR

PRIVATISATION AND INDUSTRY NEWS

POLITICS



List of Tables

Table 1 Albania's key macroeconomic indicators
Table 2 CPI
Table 3 Economic indicators
Table 4 Insurance premiums
Table 5 Foreign Trade



List of Figures

Figure 1 CPI
Figure 2 Foreign trade

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