Table of Contents
World demand to rise 6.8% annually through 2016
World demand for tractors is expected to increase 6.8 percent per annum through 2016 to $122 billion. A moderation in sales growth in many large, developing countries -- particularly Brazil, China, and India -- after a lengthy period of rapid gains will counterbalance a strong recovery in the US, Western Europe, and Japan from the effects of the 2008-2009 global economic recession.
Growth in China to lead Asia/Pacific gains
Demand for tractors in the Asia/Pacific region will be more than twice that of any other region in 2016, with China alone comprising 31 percent of the global total.
Healthy population increases and economic growth in China and other developing Asian nations like India and Thailand will drive an expansion in construction activity in these countries and place heightened pressure on their agricultural sectors to become more efficient and productive, boosting associated tractor sales. Central and South America will post strong sales gains as well, due primarily to the large and increasingly mechanized agricultural sectors in Brazil and Argentina.
In the mature markets of the industrialized world, sales of tractors will continue to be largely determined by demand for replacement machinery and the efficiency gains provided by newer, more sophisticated equipment. During the 2008-2009 economic crisis, many tractor operators in the agriculture, mining, and construction sectors delayed replacing older machinery, and the inherent time lag in each of these markets in response to improving economic circumstances will govern tractor sales growth patterns going forward. While the mining and construction sectors tend to respond more slowly to changes in economic conditions due to the large amounts of capital that must be committed, the agricultural sector usually responds much more quickly. As a result, 2011 was the beginning of a spike in demand for agricultural tractors in many developed nations, while sales of mining and construction tractors had not yet rebounded to the same extent. This release of pent-up demand will act as a restraint on market growth for a number of years, until the start of a new replacement cycle.
Agricultural tractor sales to retain largest product share
Agricultural tractors will continue to account for the largest share of product sales in 2016, followed by tractors for construction and mining applications.
However, due primarily to high 2011 levels of demand and the timing of replacement cycles in the US, Japan, and Western Europe, global agricultural tractor sales growth will slow through 2016. Greater construction expenditures and mining output in many areas of the world -- including the US, China, and India -- will drive healthy gains in these market segments.
This upcoming Freedonia industry study, World Tractors, is available for $6300.
The study presents historical data (2001, 2006, 2011) plus forecasts (2016, 2021) for supply and demand, plus demand by product and market in six regions and in 24 countries. This study also examines market environment factors, evaluates company market share, and profiles 40 global participants.
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