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Latin America - Telecoms, Mobile and Broadband Forecasts

  • February 2016
  • -
  • Paul Budde Communication Pty Ltd
  • -
  • 38 pages

Internet the main real growth area in Latin America for 2016
Latin America provides significant geographic and practical opportunities as well as difficulties for telcos, governments and telecom regulators. The diversity of the markets poses its own challenges in terms of maturity, the physical development of networks, economic prosperity and the disposable income available to consumers. In addition there are considerations related to the business environment in the region, particularly in relation to the ease of going business, investment opportunities and the level of sympathy provided by local regulatory regimes. Investment opportunities abound in the Latin American region, though conditions vary significantly between countries. Some governments retain a protective stance towards the incumbent players, which limits the opportunities for competitors in practice.

Mexico a showcase for regulatory progress
Mexico has been at the forefront in this regard in recent years, having passed legislation in late 2013 aimed at reforming its over-concentrated market and encouraging the ability of smaller players to compete against the incumbents Telmex and Telcel. This process is showing dividends into 2016, particularly with the greater involvement of the other key market players Telefonica and AT&T.

Pay TV gaining strength
Across the region, though, the key developments into 2016 will focus on pay TV, where developments have been rapid in recent years, as also in mobile broadband.

These two segments are feeding on the success of satellite and cable TV as well as the proliferation of videostreaming services. These have been able to expand as a result of upgraded fixed-line infrastructure. Mobile broadband has similarly benefitted from operator investments in mobile networks and technologies, particularly with LTE which in early 2016 is commonly providing population coverage of up to 70%. Within the next few years LTE coverage will be far more extensive, and some operators will begin to close down their 2G infrastructure to concentrate on LTE and on upcoming 5G technologies.

FttP networks on the rise
Fibre broadband is also a strong area for growth in coming years. Much of the stimulus for investment is provided by competitive pressure, as well as encouragement from governments which, like their European and North American counterparts, have instituted plans to built national broadband networks. These are aimed at closing the digital divide between urban and rural areas, and at enabling all citizens to make greater use of the socio-economic benefits provided by access to fast broadband infrastructure.

Investments supporting bundled services
Examples of government and telco investment schemes in the region abound. América Móvil, to cite one case, has in train a $50 billion five-year investment program to deploy a 500,000km FttP network across its Latin American markets. The move was in part prompted by the arrival of AT&T into its home Mexican market. For its part, AT&T, which recently acquired two Mexican mobile network operators as well as the regional pay TV operator DirecTV, has ambitions to build up a North American Mobile Service area covering more than 400 million people in Mexico and the US.

Table Of Contents

Latin America - Telecoms, Mobile and Broadband Forecasts
1. National comparisons
1.1 Fixed-Line, Internet and Broadband
1.2 Mobile subscribers
2. Argentina
2.1 Forecasts broadband market
2.2 Forecasts mobile market
3. Bolivia
3.1 Forecasts broadband market
3.2 Forecasts mobile market
4. Brazil
4.1 Forecasts fixed-line market
4.2 Forecasts fixed broadband market
4.2.1 Scenario 1 higher broadband growth
4.2.2 Scenario 2 lower broadband growth
4.3 Forecasts mobile market
5. Chile
5.1 Forecasts fixed broadband market
5.2 Forecasts mobile subscribers
6. Colombia
6.1 Forecasts fixed broadband market
6.2 Forecasts mobile subscribers
7. Dominican Republic
7.1 Forecasts - mobile subscribers
8. Ecuador
8.1 Forecasts fixed broadband
8.2 Forecasts mobile market
9. Jamaica
9.1 Forecasts broadband Market
9.2 Forecasts mobile Market
10. Mexico
10.1 Forecasts broadband market
10.2 Forecasts mobile market
11. Panama
11.1 Forecasts fixed-line market
11.1.1 Scenario 1 higher fixed-line growth
11.1.2 Scenario 2 lower fixed-line growth
11.2 Forecasts fixed broadband market
11.2.1 Scenario 1 higher broadband growth
11.2.2 Scenario 2 lower broadband growth
11.3 Forecasts mobile market
11.3.1 Scenario 1 higher mobile market growth
11.3.2 Scenario 2 lower mobile market growth
12. Paraguay
12.1 Forecasts fixed-line market
12.1.1 Scenario 1 higher fixed-line growth
12.1.2 Scenario 2 lower fixed-line growth
12.2 Forecasts fixed broadband market
12.2.1 Scenario 1 higher broadband growth
12.2.2 Scenario 2 lower broadband growth
12.3 Forecasts mobile market
12.3.1 Scenario 1 higher mobile market growth
12.3.2 Scenario 2 lower mobile market growth
13. Peru
13.1 Forecasts fixed broadband market
13.2 Forecasts mobile market
14. Puerto Rico
14.1 Forecasts mobile market
15. Uruguay
15.1 Forecasts fixed-line market
15.1.1 Scenario 1 higher fixed line growth
15.1.2 Scenario 2 lower fixed line growth
15.2 Forecasts fixed broadband market
15.2.1 Scenario 1 higher broadband growth
15.2.2 Scenario 2 lower broadband growth
15.3 Forecasts - mobile market
15.3.1 Scenario 1 higher mobile market growth
15.3.2 Scenario 2 lower mobile market growth
16. Venezuela
16.1 Forecasts fixed broadband market 2015; 2017; 2020
16.2 Forecasts mobile market 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 1 LAC countries estimated broadband and internet subscribers, penetration - 2015 (e)
Table 2 LAC countries mobile subscribers and penetration - 1998 2015(e)
Table 3 LAC countries mobile subscribers, penetration - 2011 - 2015
Table 4 Argentina - Forecast broadband subscribers 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 5 Argentina - Forecast mobile subscribers 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 6 Bolivia - Forecast fixed broadband subscribers and penetration - 2012 2013; 2015; 2017
Table 7 Bolivia - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration - 2012 2013; 2015; 2017
Table 8 Brazil - Forecast fixed lines 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 9 Brazil - Forecast broadband subscribers higher growth scenario 2015; 2017, 2020
Table 10 Brazil - Forecast broadband subscribers lower growth scenario 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 11 Brazil - Forecast mobile subscribers higher growth scenario 2015; 2020
Table 12 Brazil - Forecast mobile subscribers lower growth scenario 2015; 2020
Table 13 Chile - Forecast broadband subscribers 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 14 Chile - Forecast mobile subscribers 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 15 Colombia - Forecast broadband subscribers 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 16 Colombia - Forecast mobile subscribers higher growth scenario 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 17 Dominican Republic - Forecast mobile subscribers lower growth scenario 2011 - 2016
Table 18 Dominican Republic - Forecast mobile subscribers higher market scenario 2011 - 2016
Table 19 Ecuador - Forecast broadband subscribers 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 20 Ecuador - Forecast mobile subscribers 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 21 Jamaica - Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 22 Jamaica - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 23 Mexico - Forecast fixed broadband subscribers 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 24 Mexico - Forecast mobile subscribers 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 25 Panama - Forecast fixed-line growth higher growth scenario 2013; 2015; 2020
Table 26 Panama - Forecast fixed-line growth lower growth scenario 2013; 2015; 2020
Table 27 Panama - Forecast broadband growth higher growth scenario 2013; 2015; 2020
Table 28 Panama - Forecast broadband growth lower growth scenario 2013; 2015; 2020
Table 29 Panama - Forecast mobile subscriber growth higher growth scenario 2013; 2015; 2020
Table 30 Panama - Forecast mobile subscriber growth lower growth scenario 2013; 2015; 2020
Table 31 Paraguay - Forecast fixed-line subscribers higher growth scenario 2013; 2015; 2020
Table 32 Paraguay - Forecast fixed-line subscribers lower growth scenario 2013; 2015; 2020
Table 33 Paraguay - Forecast fixed broadband subscribers higher growth scenario 2013; 2015; 2020
Table 34 Paraguay - Forecast broadband subscribers lower growth scenario 2013; 2015; 2020
Table 35 Paraguay - Forecast mobile subscribers higher growth scenario 2015; 2020
Table 36 Paraguay - Forecast mobile subscribers lower growth scenario 2015; 2020
Table 37 Peru - Forecast broadband subscribers higher growth scenario 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 38 Peru - Forecast mobile subscribers higher growth 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 39 Puerto Rico - Forecast mobile subscribers higher growth scenario 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 40 Uruguay - Forecast fixed line subscribers higher growth scenario 2015; 2020
Table 41 Uruguay - Forecast fixed line subscribers lower growth scenario 2015; 2020
Table 42 Uruguay - Forecast fixed broadband subscribers higher growth scenario 2015; 2020
Table 43 Uruguay - Forecast broadband subscribers lower growth scenario 2015; 2020
Table 44 Uruguay - Forecast mobile subscribers higher growth scenario 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 45 Uruguay - Forecast mobile subscribers lower growth scenario 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 46 Venezuela - Forecast broadband subscribers 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 47 Venezuela - Forecast mobile subscribers higher growth scenario 2015; 2017; 2020

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