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Sudan and South Sudan Food and Drink Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 47 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The decline in oil prices has put Sudan and South Sudan on divergent economic paths. Lowerfuel costs will provide a boost to Sudanese consumers over the coming quarters and have helped stabiliseinflation and the overall economy. South Sudan is suffering from currency devaluation and hyperinflation.While we forecast a rise in per capita food consumption, this will largely be driven by inflation and lowbase effects in both markets. While these factors will provide some respite to Sudanese households, they areunlikely to meaningfully alter what remains a highly challenging environment. Insecurity will continue toundermine household income growth, making it difficult for food and drink companies operating in themarket.

Latest Updates & Industry Developments

- Per capita food sales are forecast to increase by 16.7% in 2016 in local currency. For the period 2015 to2020, we forecast compound annual growth of 13.6%.

- SABMiller has said that it will halt its South Sudan operations by March 2016 as it cannot access foreigncurrency for the raw materials needed to run the business. It has failed to turn a profit since entering thecountry in 2009.

- Political risk remains the most salient threat to our outlook, as a further deterioration of the securitysituation could further threaten the economic stability and long-term outlook for both countries. The priceof oil represents another important risk to our forecasts, both positive and negative, given that bothcountries are among Africa's top crude producers.

Table Of Contents

Sudan and South Sudan Food and Drink Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Industry Forecast 9
Food 9
Latest Updates 9
Structural Trends 10
Table: Food Sales (Sudan 2013-2020) 11
Drink 13
Latest Updates 13
Structural Trends 13
Table: Non-Alcoholic Drink Sales (Sudan 2013-2020) 15
Mass Grocery Retail 16
Latest Updates 16
Structural Trends 16
Food and Drink Risk/Reward Index 17
Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Index 17
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Q216 Food and Drink Risk/Reward Index 19
Market Overview 23
East Africa Market Overview 23
Market Drivers and Trends 23
Competitive Landscape 30
Table: Key Players In East Africa's Food and Drink Sector 30
Demographic Forecast 31
Sudan Demographic Forecast 31
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Sudan 1990-2025) 32
Table: Key Population Ratios (Sudan 1990-2025) 32
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Sudan 1990-2025) 33
Table: Population By Age Group (Sudan 1990-2025) 33
Table: Population By Age Group % (Sudan 1990-2025) 34
South Sudan Demographic Forecast 36
Table: Population Headline Indicators (South Sudan 1990-2025) 37
Table: Key Population Ratios (South Sudan 1990-2025) 37
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (South Sudan 1990-2025) 38
Table: Population By Age Group (South Sudan 1990-2025) 38
Table: Population By Age Group % (South Sudan 1990-2025) 39
Glossary 41
Food and Drink 41
Mass Grocery Retail 41
Methodology 43
Industry Forecast Methodology 43
Sector-Specific Methodology 44
Sources 44
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 45
Table: Food and Drink Risk/Reward Index Indicators 46
Table: Weighting 47

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