PharmaPoint: HIV - China Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022

• Publication date: January 2013
• Report size: 147 pages

PharmaPoint: HIV - China Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022 Summary GlobalData has released its new Country report, “PharmaPoint: HIV - China Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022”. Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), the causative agent of AIDS, has claimed millions of lives since its emergence. However, the advent of antiretroviral therapy (ART) has transformed the face of HIV/AIDS from a dead...

PharmaPoint: HIV - China Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022



Summary



GlobalData has released its new Country report, “PharmaPoint: HIV - China Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022”. Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), the causative agent of AIDS, has claimed millions of lives since its emergence. However, the advent of antiretroviral therapy (ART) has transformed the face of HIV/AIDS from a deadly disease to a manageable chronic condition for most infected individuals. Antiretroviral treatment not only reduces the viral load and reconstitutes immune function, but also decreases infection incidence rates by limiting viral transmission. The treatment algorithm in HIV has characteristically involved multiple drug regimens designed to tackle the virus on different levels. In the recent past, simplified dosing regimens through the emergence of single tablet regimens (STRs) or fixed dose combination (FDC) therapies have become increasingly popular amongst physicians and patients alike by increasing clinical efficacy thresholds and enabling patient compliance.

Unlike the seven major markets, the market in China mostly represents revenues generated from the sale of generics. GlobalData estimates that ViiV will launch its pipeline candidate, 572-Trii, as a novel STR in an attempt to break into this market. The NRTI class is represented mainly by generic Combivir, followed by generic lamivudine, stavudine, and generic Trizivir. The use of Gilead’s Viread is expanding mainly through its combination with lamivudine.



Scope


- Overview of HIV including epidemiology, etiology, symptoms, diagnosis, pathology and treatment guidelines as well as an overview on the competitive landscape.
- Detailed information on the key drugs in China including product description, safety and efficacy profiles as well as a SWOT analysis.
- Sales forecast for the top drugs in China from 2012-2022.
- Analysis of the impact of key events as well the drivers and restraints affecting China HIV market.



Reasons to buy


- Understand and capitalize by identifying products that are most likely to ensure a robust return
- Stay ahead of the competition by understanding the changing competitive landscape for HIV
- Effectively plan your M&A and partnership strategies by identifying drugs with the most promising sales potential
- Make more informed business decisions from insightful and in-depth analysis of drug performance
- Obtain sales forecast for drugs from 2012-2022 in China

Drug And Medication Industry in China

1 Table of Contents
1 Table of Contents 4
1.1 List of Tables 7
1.2 List of Figures 8
2 Introduction 9
2.1 Catalyst 9
2.2 Related Reports 9
3 Disease Overview 11
3.1 Etiology and Pathophysiology 11
3.1.1 Etiology 11
3.1.2 Pathophysiology 14
3.1.3 Prognosis 14
3.1.4 Quality of Life 15
3.2 Symptoms 15
3.2.1 Primary or Acute Infection 15
3.2.2 Chronic Infection 15
3.2.3 Advanced Infection/AIDS 16
4 Disease Management 17
4.1 Treatment Overview 17
4.2 China 19
4.2.1 Diagnosis 19
4.2.2 Clinical Practice 20
5 Competitive Assessment 22
5.1 Overview 22
5.2 Strategic Competitor Assessment 22
5.3 Product Profiles – Major Brands 25
5.3.1 Atripla (efavirenz/emtricitabine/tenofovir) 25
5.3.2 Complera (emtricitabine/tenofovir/rilpivirine) 31
5.3.3 Stribild (elvitegravir/cobicistat/tenofovir/emtricitabine) 36
5.3.4 Truvada (tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine) 41
5.3.5 Epzicom (abacavir/lamivudine) 45
5.3.6 Kaletra (lopinavir/ritonavir) 50
5.3.7 Reyataz (atazanavir) 54
5.3.8 Prezista (darunavir) 58
5.3.9 Norvir (ritonavir) 62
5.3.10 Isentress (raltegravir) 66
5.3.11 Entry inhibitors 70
6 Opportunity and Unmet Need 71
6.1 Overview 71
6.1.1 Simplified regimens and dosing frequency 72
6.1.2 Side effects and toxicities 72
6.1.3 Drug resistance 72
6.1.4 Prophylaxis 73
6.1.5 Lack of functional cure 73
6.1.6 Patient awareness 74
6.1.7 Treatment availability 75
6.1.8 Treatment affordability 75
6.2 Unmet Needs Gap Analysis 76
6.3 Opportunities 78
6.3.1 Development of treatments to counter drug resistance 78
6.3.2 Collaborations to develop newer STRs 78
6.3.3 Development of new injectable formulations 78
6.3.4 Development of new prophylactics 79
6.3.5 Development of drugs that use a novel mechanism of action 79
6.3.6 Public-Private Partnerships 79
7 Pipeline Assessment 80
7.1 Overview 80
7.2 Promising Drugs in Clinical Development 82
7.2.1 Cobicistat 84
7.2.2 Elvitegravir 91
7.2.3 Dolutegravir 96
7.2.4 572-Trii 102
7.2.5 Quad 2 108
8 Market Outlook 114
8.1 China 114
8.1.1 Forecast 114
8.1.2 Key Events 118
8.1.3 Drivers and Barriers 118
9 Appendix 121
9.1 Bibliography 121
9.2 Abbreviations 130
9.3 Methodology 133
9.4 Forecasting Methodology 133
9.4.1 HIV Prevalence 133
9.4.2 Percent Drug-Treated Patients 133
9.4.3 Drugs Included in Each Therapeutic Class 134
9.4.4 General Pricing Assumptions 135
9.4.5 Individual Drug Assumptions 136
9.4.6 Generic Erosion 141
9.4.7 Pricing of Pipeline agents 141
9.5 Physicians and Specialists Included in this Study 143
9.5.1 Survery of Prescribing Physicians 144
9.6 About the Authors 145
9.6.1 Authors 145
9.6.2 Global Head of Healthcare 146
9.7 About GlobalData 147
9.8 Contact Us 147
9.9 Disclaimer 147

List of Tables

Table 1: Symptoms HIV 16
Table 2: Treatment Guidelines for HIV 18
Table 3: Most Prescribed Drugs for HIV by Class in China Market, 2012 18
Table 4: Leading Treatments for HIV, 2012 24
Table 5: Product Profile – Atripla 26
Table 6: Atripla SWOT Analysis, 2012 30
Table 7: Product Profile – Complera 32
Table 8: Complera SWOT Analysis, 2012 35
Table 9: Product Profile – Stribild 37
Table 10: Stribild SWOT Analysis, 2012 40
Table 11: Product Profile – Truvada 42
Table 12: Truvada SWOT Analysis, 2012 44
Table 13: Product Profile – Epzicom 46
Table 14: Epzicom SWOT Analysis, 2012 49
Table 15: Product Profile – Kaletra 51
Table 16: Kaletra SWOT Analysis, 2012 53
Table 17: Product Profile – Reyataz 55
Table 18: Reyataz SWOT Analysis, 2012 57
Table 19: Product Profile – Prezista 59
Table 20: Prezista SWOT Analysis, 2012 61
Table 21: Product Profile – Norvir 63
Table 22: Norvir SWOT Analysis, 2012 65
Table 23: Product Profile – Isentress 67
Table 24: Percent of Patients with HIV RNA Levels <50 Copies/mL from SMARTMRK Study 67
Table 25: Isentress SWOT Analysis, 2012 69
Table 26: Summary of Minor Therapeutic Classes, 2012 70
Table 27: Overall Unmet Needs – Current Level of Attainment 71
Table 28: Clinical Unmet Needs – Gap Analysis, 2012 77
Table 29: HIV – Promising Drugs in Clinical Development, 2012 82
Table 30: Comparison of Therapeutic Classes in Development for HIV, 2012 83
Table 31: Product Profile – Cobicistat 86
Table 32: Cobicistat SWOT Analysis, 2012 90
Table 33: Product Profile – Elvitegravir 92
Table 34: Elvitegravir SWOT Analysis, 2012 95
Table 35: Product Profile – Dolutegravir 98
Table 36: Dolutegravir SWOT Analysis, 2012 101
Table 37: Product Profile – 572-Trii 103
Table 38: 572-Trii SWOT Analysis, 2012 107
Table 39: Product Profile – Quad 2 110
Table 40: Quad 2 SWOT Analysis, 2012 113
Table 41: Sales Forecasts ($m) for HIV in China, 2012–2022 116
Table 42: Key Events Impacting Sales for HIV in China, 2012–2022 118
Table 43: China HIV Therapeutics Market – Drivers and Barriers, 2012–2022 118
Table 44: Physicians Surveyed, By Country 144

List of Figures

Figure 1: HIV Lifecycle 12
Figure 2: Competitive Assessment of Late-Stage Pipeline Agents in HIV, 2012–2022 82
Figure 3: Sales for HIV Therapeutics in China by Drug Class, 2012–2022 117

Drug and Medication in China

Number Of Enterprises-drug_gap Certification For Chinese Herbal Medicine-china-annual, In Unit (units)

• $ 250
• Industry data
• May 2013

Yearly, From 2006 To 2011
By Chinascope Financial
Source: Chinascope Financial

• Industries : Drug and Medication
• Countries : China

China Pharmaceutical Sales, Us$bn

• $ 250
• Industry data
• January 2013

Yearly, From 2004 To 2021
By Business Monitor International
Source: Southern Medicine Economic Institute (SMEI), Association of the European Self-Medication Society (AE

• Industries : Drug and Medication
• Countries : China

China Pharmaceutical Sales, Us$bn, % Chg Y-o-y

• $ 250
• Industry data
• January 2013

Yearly, From 2005 To 2021
By Business Monitor International
Source: Southern Medicine Economic Institute (SMEI), Association of the European Self-Medication Society (AE

• Industries : Drug and Medication
• Countries : China

China Pharmaceutical Sales, Cnybn

• $ 250
• Industry data
• January 2013

Yearly, From 2004 To 2021
By Business Monitor International
Source: Southern Medicine Economic Institute (SMEI), Association of the European Self-Medication Society (AE

• Industries : Drug and Medication
• Countries : China

China Pharmaceutical Sales, Cnybn, % Chg Y-o-y

• $ 250
• Industry data
• January 2013

Yearly, From 2005 To 2021
By Business Monitor International
Source: Southern Medicine Economic Institute (SMEI), Association of the European Self-Medication Society (AE

• Industries : Drug and Medication
• Countries : China