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Where can a Defense Contractor Find Growth in 2025?

The U.S. Government is facing significant challenges to the overall budget. One of the largest areas of discretionary spending is the defense budget. As budget cuts are contemplated, tough choices will need to be made to produce an acceptable defense budget. One of the principal areas which can and should be changed is in both what is procured and in what quantities. This study looks at the envisioned future defense capabilities and identifies various market opportunities that will appear if those capabilities are fully funded. The majority of the areas identified are modifications of existing technologies focused on the revised capabilities set.

Key Questions This Study Will Answer

• How will the expected budget cuts impact major programs?
• What types of products will be favored?
• Will the budget continue a negative trend beyond the budget period?
• Will the trends favor current large integrators or smaller firms?
• Are the products/services offered today likely to be similar to those needed in 2025?
• Are teams the new primes?

Executive Summary

• The defense market is shrinking, and many of the traditionally large spending areas will be the most affected.
- Operation and maintenance (O&M) cuts will be the most immediate, with overseas contingency operations (OCO) funding eliminated and cuts to base budget O&M.
- Personnel will receive cuts after 2014, probably in the X to X percent range.
- Procurement programs will be drawn out, and new procurement will be limited.
- Research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&E) has already been cut, and funding will continue at slightly reduced amounts.
- Construction funding will continue to be used for the completion of existing projects, but future funding will decline at an annual rate of X percent.
• The US military will continue its transformation into a more modular expeditionary force, which was already in progress prior to 11 September 2001.
- Modular force structures will require more equipment that is easily deployable.
- Cost and technology issues will demand more commercially designed equipment.

Definitions

• This assessment looks only at the portions of the defense budget that can be altered within the Defense Department with the assistance of Congress.
- These portions are effectively a modified version of the department’s discretionary spending, as defined by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB).
- Reductions from the discretionary budget include funding for the completion of construction projects, funding of international commitments, and revolving accounts.
• The defense budget is split into personnel, O&M, procurement, RDT&E, and construction.
• The baseline numbers use the 2013 Presidential budget submission as the starting point.
• Forecasts initially use the planned spending for the following years from the budget submission, but then apply factors for expected budget cuts through 2017.
• Beyond 2017, the forecast is based on the analyst’s assumptions.

Table Of Contents

U.S. Future Defense Market Opportunities is available on the website
Table Of Contents

1. Executive Summary
2. Market Overview
3. Future Defense Market
• External Challenges: Drivers and Restraints
• Forecast and Trends
4. Industry Trends and Their Impacts
5. Defense Business Opportunities
6. Growth Markets
7. Top Technology Opportunities by 2025
8. The Last Word
9. Appendix

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