Global Mega Trends and their Implications on Urban Logistics

  • March 2013
  • -
  • Frost & Sullivan
  • -
  • 144 pages

Global Spending on Urban Logistics to Reach $5.980 Trillion by 2020

This study seeks to analyse the impact of global mega trends—including urbanisation, bricks and clicks, connectivity, and multimodality—on the growing market of urban logistics. Urban logistics is a dynamic and crucial subset of the logistics industry, which over the past decade has placed unique demands on the global supply chain. Mega Trends such as urbanisation have serious implications not only for logistics service providers who are increasingly finding it difficult to tackle congestion but also for city governments entrusted with the incumbent task of sustainable development. This study also explores the strategies implemented by companies and governments alike to improve the overall efficiency of the urban supply chain.

Definition of Mega Trends

What is a Mega Trend?
Mega Trends are transformative, global forces that define the future world with their far reaching impacts on businesses, societies, economies, cultures, and personal lives.

Why do Mega Trends matter?
• Mega Trends have diverse meanings and impacts for different industries, companies, and individuals. An analysis of these Mega Trends and their implications forms an important component of a company’s future strategy, development, and innovation process, and impacts product and technology planning.
• The following research service sets the stage for visionary thinking by identifying the most important global Mega Trends that will significantly impact urban logistics and the implications of these Mega Trends for transforming society, markets, and cultures.

Key Findings

Urban Logistics: Key Takeaways, Global, 2011
1. By 2025, 3 out of 5 people will live in cities; each city dweller will generate approximately Xdelivery per day. As a result, over X million deliveries per day will occur within cities.
2. Mega Trends such as urbanization, connectivity, and convergence; bricks and clicks; high-speed rail; and multimodality are expected to drive the emergence of a new range of services called “urban logistics” that are exclusively tailor-made for urban areas.
3. Growth in online retail will drive growth in freight traffic in cities—online retail will grow atX% annually to reach $XTrillion by 2025.
4. Driven primarily by urbanization, urban logistics spending will increase threefold to reach $X Trillion by 2020, accounting for X% of total logistics spending with transportation and distribution activities receiving a majority of the spending at $XTrillion in 2020.
5. Share of outsourced urban logistics will increase to account for X% of the total urban logistics spending by 2020. Some of the top industries that will use urban logistics services include retail, pharmaceutical, and food and beverages.
6. Logistics services providers will innovate their products and services to overcome the future urban challenge introducing hybrid fleets, consolidated deliveries, and locker boxes, among other innovations for cities.
7. City planners will reinforce and introduce new policy measures to control vehicle access, provide economic incentive for sustainable freight deliveries, and invest in infrastructure, such as freight villages, to ensure sustainable urban logistics.

Features of Urban Freight

Urban Logistics: Features of Urban Freight, Global, 2000–2006
1. A typical city has a minimum of at least 150 supply chains, one for each economic sector (2000).
2. Urban logistics can be both in-house and outsourced. In a typical developed European city, the ratio could be 50:50; in contrast, in a developing city in-house management could be as high as X% due to an unorganized supply chain made up of small time vendors and ‘white van’ providers (2006).
3. A city generates about X to X tons of goods per person per year (2006).
4. Majority of the freight is incoming freight, which accounts for X% to X% of the total truck-km in urban areas, while outgoing freight accounts for about X% to X%. The rest originates from and is delivered within the city (2006).
5. Road transport is the most prominent mode of urban goods delivery; X% of road urban transport fleet is made up of light commercial vehicles (2006).

Definition of Segments

Global Logistics Spending
Includes spending on:
• Transport and Distribution
• Warehousing
• Value-added services

Urban Logistics Spending
Urban share in global logistics spending includes:
• Goods to urban areas
• Goods from urban areas
• Goods originating in and delivered within cities

In-house and Outsourced Urban Logistics
Spending on third party logistics services from service providers who may include 2PL (second party logistics / carriers), 3PL (third party logistics), and 4PL (fourth party logistics) companies

Table Of Contents

Table Of Contents

1. Executive Summary
• Definition of Mega Trends
• Key Findings
• Features of Urban Freight
• Mega Trends Driving Urban Logistics
2. Research Scope, Objectives, Background, and Methodology
• Research Scope
• Research Aims and Objectives
• Research Background
• Research Methodology
3. Definitions
• Definitions Used in the Study
• Abbreviations Used in the Study
4. Introduction to Urban Logistics
• Key Segments
• The Urban Logistics Supply Chain
• Key Focus Areas
5. Top Mega Trends Driving Urban Logistics
• Mega Trends Driving Urban Logistics
6. Urbanization and Future of Urban Distribution
• Urbanization and its Impact on Logistics Stakeholders
• Urbanisation Trends Influencing Urban Logistics
• Examples of Macro to Micro Implications of Urbanisation on Urban Logistics
7. Multimodality and Higher Speed Logistics
• Multimodality and its Impact on Logistics Stakeholders
• Multimodal Trends Influencing Urban Logistics
• Examples of Macro to Micro Implications of High-speed Logistics on Urban Logistics
8. Connectivity and Proactive Urban Logistics
• Connectivity and its Impact on Logistics Stakeholders
• Connectivity Trends Influencing Urban Logistics
• Future of Connectivity in Urban Logistics
• Examples Macro to Micro Implications of Connectivity on Urban Logistics
9. Bricks and Clicks
• Bricks and Clicks Model
• Definition of Online Retail
• Growth in Online Retail to 2025
• Top Products by Online Retail Penetration
• Impact of Bricks and Clicks on Store Formats
• Big Box to Small Box
• Big Box Growth versus Small Box Growth
• New Retailing Business Models
• Impact of Bricks and Clicks on Logistics
• Impact of Bricks and Clicks on Logistics Stakeholders
• Impact of Bricks and Clicks on the Parcel Market
• Macro to Micro Implications of Bricks and Clicks on Urban Logistics
10. Urban Logistics Cost Trends and Key Segments
• Urban Logistics Spending: Urban Vs. Non Urban
• Urban Logistics Spending by Segments
• Trends in Urban Freight Transportation
• Trends in Urban Freight Distribution
• Urban Freight Value Added Services
11. Urban Logistics Business Models
12. Public Policies on Urban Logistics
• Examples of Key Cities that have Trialed City Logistics Policies
• Urban Logistics Business Models from Logistics Service Providers (LSP)
• Examples of Urban Logistics Business Models from LSP
13. Urban Logistics Models from Cities
• Urban Consolidation Centres
• Case Study: City of Paris
• Case Study: Regensburg’s RegLog
• Case Study: Barcelona Night Delivery
14. Urban Logistics Business Models from LSPs
• DHL City Logistics
• TNT Express
• FedEx Express
15. Top Industries Using Urban Logistics
• Top Industries
• Retail and Urban Supply Chain
• Retail Adopts the Hub-and-spoke Delivery Model
• Retail Logistics
• Pharmaceuticals and the Urban Supply Chain
• Pharmaceutical Logistics
• Food and Beverages and the Urban Supply Chain
• Food and Beverages Logistics
16. Macro to Micro: Urban Logistics Opportunities and Implications
• Macro to Micro Matrix
• Key Findings and Future Outlook
• Key Conclusions and Future Outlook
• The Last Word—Three Big Predictions
17. Appendix
18. About Frost and Sullivan

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