EpiCast Report: Hepatitis C Virus - Epidemiology Forecast to 2022



Summary



Hepatitis C is a largely asymptomatic liver disease caused by the hepatitis C virus (HCV). HCV is an escalating public health problem and burdens an estimated 3% of the world’s population (Trinks et al., 2012). Unlike other acute viral infections that have a rapid onset, HCV infections often persist for decades (CDC, 2013; Tan, 2006).

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), approximately 150 million individuals worldwide have been infected with HCV and about 350,000 deaths occur due to HCV-related liver diseases each year (WHO, 2012). HCV transmission in the US is mainly through direct percutaneous exposure to infected blood. HCV in Europe is mainly associated with injection drug use, which accounts for up to 60% of all reported HCV cases (ECDC, 2010). China and Brazil’s prevalent HCV cases are primarily due to contaminated equipment in healthcare settings such as medical and dental practices, along with dialysis and needle-stick injuries (WHO, 2012). GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the number of prevalent cases of HCV in the nine major markets (9MM) will grow by 4.80% in the forecast period, from 110.23 million cases in 2012 to 115.55 million cases by 2022.



Scope


- The Hepatitis C virus (HCV) EpiCast Report provides an overview of the risk factors and global trends of HCV in the nine major markets (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, Brazil, and China).
- It also includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast of the prevalent cases of HCV in these markets segmented by sex and age (given in five-year increments beginning at age 15 years and ending at ages 85 years and older).



Reasons to buy


- Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global HCV market.
- Quantify patient populations in the global HCV market to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.
- Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the age groups and sex that present the best opportunities for HCV therapeutics in each of the markets covered.

Table Of Contents

Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents 4
1.1 List of Tables 6
1.2 List of Figures 6
2 Introduction 7
2.1 Catalyst 7
2.2 Related Reports 7
3 Epidemiology 8
3.1 Risk Factors and Comorbidities 8
3.1.1 The risk of contracting HCV is almost 50 times higher among injection drug users 9
3.1.2 There is a 10.9-fold increased risk of developing HCV infection through a blood transfusion 10
3.1.3 No current preventative therapy to reduce perinatal transmission 10
3.1.4 Metabolic syndrome is a common comorbidity in HCV-infected individuals 10
3.1.5 Chronic alcoholism greatly magnifies the risk of HCC 11
3.1.6 Hepatitis B virus and HCV share similar modes of transmission, resulting in co-infections 12
3.1.7 HCV/HIV co-infection complicates treatment options and accelerates liver damage 12
3.2 Global Trends 13
3.2.1 US 13
3.2.2 5EU 14
3.2.3 Japan 17
3.2.4 Brazil 18
3.2.5 China 18
3.3 Forecast Methodology 19
3.3.1 Sources Used 20
3.3.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods 23
3.3.3 Forecast Assumptions and Methods (HCV Genotypes) 26
3.3.4 Sources Not Used 30
3.4 Epidemiology Forecast (2012-2022) 31
3.4.1 Total Prevalent Cases of HCV 31
3.4.2 Age-Specific Prevalent Cases of HCV 34
3.4.3 Sex-Specific Prevalent Cases of HCV 37
3.4.4 Age-Standardized Prevalence of HCV 38
3.4.5 HCV Genotype Class Distributions 40
3.5 Discussion 41
3.5.1 Conclusion on Epidemiology Trends 41
3.5.2 Limitations of the Analysis 42
3.5.3 Strengths of the Analysis 42
4 Appendix 43
4.1 Bibliography 43
4.2 About the Authors 54
4.2.1 Epidemiologists 54
4.2.2 Reviewers 54
4.2.3 Global Director of Epidemiology and Clinical Trials Analysis 55
4.2.4 Global Head of Healthcare 56
4.3 About GlobalData 57
4.4 About EpiCast 57
4.5 Contact Us 58
4.6 Disclaimer 58



List of Tables

Table 1: Risk Factors, Comorbidities, and Complications Associated with Hepatitis C Virus Infection 9
Table 2: 9MM, Sources of HCV Prevalence Data Used for the Forecast 20
Table 3: 9MM, Sources of HCV Genotype Data 21
Table 4: Hepatitis C Virus Genotype Description 27
Table 5: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of HCV, Ages ?15 Years, Men and Women, N (Millions), 2012-2022 32
Table 6: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of HCV, By Age, N (Millions), (Row %), 2012 35
Table 7: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of HCV, by Sex, Ages ?15 Years, N (Row %), 2012 37
Table 8: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of HCV, by Genotypes, Ages ?15 Years, N (Row %), 2012 40



List of Figures

Figure 1: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of HCV, Ages ?15 Years, Men and Women, N (Millions), 2012-2022 33
Figure 2: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of HCV, by Age, N (Millions), 2012 36
Figure 3: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of HCV, by Sex, N (Millions), 2012 38
Figure 4: 9MM, Age-Standardized Prevalence of HCV, Ages ?15 Years, by Sex, %, 2012 39

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