EpiCast Report: Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) - Epidemiology Forecast to 2022



Summary



Lung cancer is a disease of uncontrolled cell growth in the lung tissues. It is one of the most commonly occurring cancers in the world, representing almost 13% of all cancers (Ferlay et al., 2010). NSCLC is the most common type of lung cancer, comprising about 85% of all lung cancers. An estimated 1.37 million new cases of NSCLC occurred worldwide in 2008 (Ferlay et al., 2010).

This forecast was built on an in-depth analysis of historical trends for lung cancer incidence, mortality, and survival; smoking prevalence, disease stage at diagnosis, and the status of lung cancer screening programs in each market.

GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the number of incident cases of NSCLC in the 9MM will grow from 1.03 million cases in 2012 to 1.26 million by 2022 at a rate of 2.2% per year. The increase in the number of NSCLS incident cases is driven by changes in the incidence of lung cancer, an aging population, population growth, smoking habits in men and women, and exposure to environmental risk factors. Of the nine markets, China will have the highest number of incident cases of NSCLC, growing from 0.55 million cases in 2012 to 0.69 million by 2022 at a rate of 2.5% per year. In addition to China, India and Japan are also important markets for NSCLC in the next 10 years because these countries have a growing older population, a high smoking prevalence, and few smoking bans compared with western countries.



Scope


- The NSCLC EpiCast Report provides overview of the risk factors and the global and historical trends for NSCLC in the nine major markets (9MM): US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, China, and India.
- It also includes a 10-year epidemiology forecast of the diagnosed incident cases of NSCLC in these markets from 2012–2022.
- The incident cases are further segmented by sex and age (40–49 years, 50–59 years, 60–69 years, 70–79 years, and at ages 80 years and older), cancer stage at diagnosis (AJCC Stage I-IV), cancer histological subtype (adenocarcinoma, squamous cell carcinoma, large cell carcinoma, and others), and the proportion of smokers among NSCLC cases.



Reasons to buy


- Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global NSCLC market.
- Quantify patient populations in the global NSCLC market to improve product development, pricing, and launch plans.
- Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying sex, age groups, and cancer histological subtypes that present the best opportunities for NSCLC therapeutics in each of the markets covered.

Table Of Contents

Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents 3
1.1 List of Tables 5
1.2 List of Figures 5
2 Introduction 7
2.1 Catalyst 7
2.2 Upcoming Reports 7
3 Epidemiology 8
3.1 Risk Factors and Comorbidities 9
3.1.1 Smokers are more likely to have lung cancer than non-smokers 10
3.1.2 Long-term exposure to radon increases the risk of lung cancer 11
3.1.3 Family history of any cancer increases lung cancer risk 11
3.1.4 TB increases the risk of lung cancer and increases mortality risk 12
3.1.5 COPD is a comorbidity that reduces lung cancer survival 12
3.1.6 Lung cancer screening programs may not be beneficial 13
3.1.7 Stage at diagnosis significantly impacts the survival of lung cancer cases 14
3.2 Global Trends 14
3.2.1 US 18
3.2.2 France 22
3.2.3 Germany 24
3.2.4 Italy 25
3.2.5 Spain 27
3.2.6 UK 29
3.2.7 Japan 30
3.2.8 China 32
3.2.9 India 34
3.3 Forecast Methodology 35
3.3.1 Sources Used 37
3.3.2 Sources Not Used 41
3.3.3 Forecast Methods and Assumptions 42
3.4 Epidemiology Forecast (2012-2022) 44
3.4.1 Incident Cases of NSCLC 44
3.4.2 Age-Specific Incident Cases of NSCLC 46
3.4.3 Sex-Specific Incident Cases of NSCLC 47
3.4.4 Age-Standardized Incidence Rates of NSCLC 48
3.4.5 Segmentation of NSCLC Incident Cases 50
3.5 Discussion 58
3.5.1 Limitations of the Analysis 59
3.5.2 Strengths of the Analysis 59
4 Appendix 61
4.1 Bibliography 61
4.2 About the Authors 69
4.2.1 Epidemiologists 69
4.2.2 Reviewers 70
4.2.3 Global Director of Epidemiology and Clinical Trials Analysis 71
4.2.4 Global Head of Healthcare 71
4.3 About GlobalData 72
4.4 About EpiCast 72
4.5 Contact Us 72
4.6 Disclaimer 73



List of Tables

Table 1: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for Lung Cancer 9
Table 2: 9MM, Age-Standardized (World) Smoking Prevalence, Men and Women, 2006 and 2009 17
Table 3: 9MM, Sources of NSCLC Incidence Data 36
Table 4: 9MM, Incident Cases of NSCLC, Men and Women Ages ?40 Years, N, Selected Years 2012-2022 44
Table 5: 9MM, Incident Cases of NSCLC, by Age, Men and Women, N (Row %), 2012 46
Table 6: 9MM, Incident Cases of NSCLC, by Sex, Ages ?40 Years, N (Row %), 2012 47
Table 7: 9MM, Incident Cases of NSCLC, by Stage at Diagnosis, Men and Women Ages ?40 Years, N (Row %), 2012 51
Table 8: 9MM, Incident Cases of NSCLC, by Histological Subtype, Ages ?40 Years, Men and Women, N (Row %) , 2012 54
Table 9: Comparison of GlobalData Forecast for Lung Cancer Incident Cases with Globocan 2008 60



List of Figures

Figure 1: 9MM, Age-Standardized (World) Lung Cancer Incidence, Men Ages ?40 Years, 1993-2002 15
Figure 2: 9MM, Age-Standardized (World) Lung Cancer Incidence, Women Ages ?40 Years, 1993-2002 16
Figure 3: Age-Standardized (US 2000) Lung Cancer Incidence and Mortality, Men and Women, All Ages, US, 1999-2008 19
Figure 4: Age-Standardized (World) Lung Cancer Incidence and Mortality, Men and Women Ages ?40 Years, US, 1993-2008 20
Figure 5: Relative Risk of Death from Lung Cancer in Current Smokers, Men and Women, US 21
Figure 6: Age-Standardized (World) Lung Cancer Incidence and Mortality, Men and Women Ages ?40 Years, France, 1993-2008 23
Figure 7: Age-Standardized (World) Lung Cancer Incidence and Mortality, Men and Women Ages ?40 Years, Germany, 1993-2008 24
Figure 8: Age-Standardized (World) Lung Cancer Incidence and Mortality, Men and Women Ages ?40 Years, Italy, 1993-2008 26
Figure 9: Age-Standardized (World) Lung Cancer Incidence and Mortality, Men and Women Ages ?40 Years, Spain, 1991-2007 28
Figure 10: Age-Standardized (World) Lung Cancer Incidence and Mortality, Ages ?40 Years, UK, 1993-2008 29
Figure 11: Age-Standardized (World) Lung Cancer Incidence and Mortality, Men and Women Ages ?40 Years, Japan, 1993-2008 31
Figure 12: Age-Standardized (World) Lung Cancer Incidence and Mortality, Men and Women Ages ?40 Years, China, 1993-2008 33
Figure 13: Age-Standardized (World) Lung Cancer Incidence, Men and Women Ages ?40 Years, India, 1993-2002 34
Figure 14: 9MM, Incident Cases of NSCLC, Men and Women Ages ?40 Years, N, Selected Years 2012-2022 45
Figure 15: 9MM, Incident Cases of NSCLC, by Sex, Ages ?40 Years, N, 2012 48
Figure 16: 9MM, Age-Standardized (World) NSCLC Incidence, 2012 49
Figure 17: 9MM, Incident Cases of NSCLC, by Stage at Diagnosis, Men and Women Ages ?40 Years, % and N, 2012 52
Figure 18: 9MM, Incident Cases of NSCLC by Histological Subtype, Men and Women Ages ?40 Years, %, 2012 55
Figure 19: 9MM, Proportion of Smokers Among NSCLC Cases and the General Population, Men and Women, %, 2012 56
Figure 20: Smoking History in NSCLC Cases in the 9MM, Men and Women Ages ?40 Years, N, 2012 57

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