The lighting industry is a large, global and yet fragmented market place. The fragmentation is driven both by technology differentiation and customer need diversity. The technologies vying for market share include incandescent lamp, compact fluorescent lamp (CFL), halogen lamp, light-emitting diodes (LEDs) and, most recently, organic light emitting diodes (OLED). The target markets are also very diverse, each service different needs and demanding different price points. These markets include residential, architectural, hospitality, shop, industrial, office, and outdoor.

OLED and LED lighting are both solid-state technologies and offer overlapping value propositions per market segment. They will therefore compete directly in many instances. LED lighting has come a long way and offers a better performance than OLEDs, and that at a lower cost. OLED lighting will therefore only gain market success if it clearly defines its unique selling points and carves out initial market niches.

This report is divided into two parts: (a) technology and (b) market assessment. The first offers a comprehensive yet detailed overview of both LED and OLED lighting, going through fabrication processes, material compositions, technology roadmaps, and key players. The device attributes of each technology are also critically assessed, examining parameters such as colour warmth and controllability, flexibility, efficiency, surface emission, lifetime, wafer size, and luminaire design.

The second section offers a blunt market assessment. Detailed cost projection roadmaps are developed, factoring in estimated cost evolution of the integrated substrates, encapsulation layers and materials. Changes in system configuration and material composition required to enable the cost roadmaps are outlined. We also factor in production costs including capital and labour. Values are expressed in units of $/unit and $/klm.

The value proposition of OLEDs for all market segments is critically analysed. For each assessment, IDTechEx Research examines parameters such as light quality, form factor, technology mix diversity, price sensitivity, light controllability, lifetime and light intensity. The report also rigorously compares the performance of OLED and LED devices using the above parameters.

IDTechEx Research also develops detailed market forecasts. Here, we estimate the market share of OLEDs per lighting market segment, calculate the total lighting area per sector, estimate the lumen output per segment, and forecast the equivalent number of units sold per sector. Combining all our analysis, we forecast the monetary value of the market at module level per market segment.

We forecast the market will grow to 1.3 billion USD in 2023 and initially grow at a rapid rate of 40-50% annually, although the initial market base in very small. We contextualise our assessment by expressing our market forecast in units of equivalent 60W incandescent bulbs. We assess the implications of our market forecast for the global capital investment and production capacity. We compare the market size to that of LEDs (including automotive, backplane and residential) at module level. Production capacities are compared too to further set out forecasts in prospective.

Our methodology is clearly laid out in the report, as are all our underlying assumptions.

Table Of Contents

1. OLED LIGHTING - A MARKET ASSESSMENT
1.1. LED Market - a detailed overview
1.1.1. The LED Market - Backlighting
1.1.2. The LED Market - Automotive
1.1.3. The LED Market - General Lighting
1.1.4. The LED Market - Market Figures
1.2. OLED Lighting - market analysis
1.2.1. Cost projection
1.2.2. Encapsulation - system configuration and cost projection
1.2.3. Integrated substrates - system configuration and cost projection
1.2.4. Material costs
1.2.5. Total cost projections
1.3. Value proposition of OLED vs. LED lighting
1.4. OLED value proposition per lighting sector - a parameterized analysis
1.5. OLED market forecast
1.6. Market Analysis - Implications for production capacity and capital investment
1.7. Developing a tangible feel for the scale of the IDTechEx market forecast
APPENDIX 1: POTENTIAL VALUE CHAIN MAP
APPENDIX 2: TIMELINE OF MandA AND INVESTMENT ACTIVITY IN THE OLED INDUSTRY

1. INTRODUCTION TO LIGHTING
1.1. Natural and Artificial Light
1.1.1. Evaluation of Artificial Lights
1.1.2. Colour Characterization
1.1.3. The Traditional Lighting Industry
1.2. The Lighting Market
1.2.1. Light Fixtures
1.2.2. Lamps
1.2.3. Application Segments
1.3. Lighting Technologies
1.3.1. Incandescents
1.3.2. Halogens
1.3.3. Linear Fluorescent Lamps (LFL)
1.3.4. Compact Fluorescent Lamps (CFL)
1.3.5. High intensity discharge lamps
1.3.6. Induction Lamps
1.4. SSL Lighting Drivers and Challenges
1.4.1. Energy savings
1.4.2. Low maintenance and long lifetime
1.4.3. Special operating environments
1.4.4. Digital controls
1.4.5. Display Backlights
2. LED LIGHTING
2.1. Device Structure
2.1.1. Chips
2.1.2. Phosphors
2.1.3. Quantum Dots
2.1.4. LED Packages
2.1.5. Diffuse LED Luminaires
2.1.6. Recessed Ceiling Fixtures
2.1.7. Ceiling Mounted Flat Panel LED Luminaires
2.1.8. LED Pendants
2.1.9. Desk and Table Lamps
2.1.10. Under-Cabinet Lights
2.2. Efficiency Trajectory
2.3. Technology Options and Performance Levels
2.3.1. Efficient Production of Green Light
2.3.2. LEDs for Ultra-thin Light Guides 63OLED vs LED Lighting 2013-2023
2.3.3. Light Guide Development
2.3.4. Embedded LEDs
2.4. Costs
3. OLED TECHNOLOGY
3.1. OLED Structures
3.1.1. Transparent vs opaque
3.1.2. Rigid vs flexible
3.1.3. Single stack or tandem
3.1.4. Small Molecules versus Polymers
3.1.5. Fluorescent vs Phosphorescent Emitters
3.2. Underlying Structures
3.2.1. Substrate
3.2.2. Extraction enhancement
3.2.3. Transparent conductor
3.3. Active Layers
3.3.1. Hole injection (HIL)
3.3.2. Hole transport (HTL)
3.3.3. Emissive layer
3.3.4. Electron transport
3.3.5. Electron injection
3.3.6. Charge generation
3.4. Top Layers
3.4.1. Cathode
3.4.2. Light extraction
3.4.3. Cover materials
3.4.4. Sealants and desiccants
3.4.5. Surface barriers
4. OLED LIGHTING PERFORMANCE AND PRODUCTS
4.1. Performance Measures
4.1.1. Efficacy
4.1.2. Colour
4.1.3. Lifetime and Reliability
4.2. OLED Modules
4.3. Drivers and Controls
4.4. Luminaires
4.5. Roadmaps of Future Performance
5. OLED LIGHTING MATERIALS
5.1. Higher Efficacy
5.1.1. Extraction efficiency
5.1.2. Electrical Efficiency
5.1.3. Internal Quantum Efficiency
5.1.4. Spectral efficiency
5.1.5. Driver efficiency
5.1.6. Beam Shaping
5.2. Longer Lifetime
5.2.1. Short Prevention
5.2.2. Organic Material Stability
5.2.3. Encapsulation
5.3. Cost Reduction
5.3.1. Substrate and Encapsulation
5.3.2. Organic Materials
6. OLED PANEL MANUFACTURING
6.1. Vapor Processing
6.1.1. Substrate Preparation
6.1.2. Evaporation
6.1.3. Electrode Deposition
6.1.4. Patterning
6.2. Solution Processing
6.2.1. Slot-die coating
6.2.2. Contact printing
6.2.3. Jet printing
6.2.4. Subtractive Patterning
6.3. Roll-to-Roll Processing
6.3.1. Deposition of Barrier Layers
6.4. Cost Reduction Drivers
6.4.1. Simplified Patterning
6.4.2. Equipment Size Scaling
6.4.3. Cycle Time
6.4.4. Encapsulation
6.4.5. Solution Processing and R2R Handling
6.4.6. Simpler Alternatives
6.5. Market Timing
7. LEDS VS OLEDS: FUTURE MARKET PROSPECTS
7.1. OLED Attributes
7.1.1. Soft Lighting
7.1.2. Form Factors: Thin, Light Weight, Flexible, Irregular Shapes
7.1.3. Transparent
7.1.4. Colour Quality
7.2. Additional Features for OLEDs
7.2.1. Dynamic colour
7.2.2. Beam Shaping
7.3. Economic factors
7.3.1. LED luminaire price trends
7.3.2. Total cost of ownership
7.3.3. Price forecasts for OLED luminaires
7.3.4. Efficacy Targets for OLEDs
7.4. Special Market Opportunities for OLEDs
7.4.1. Overhead Lighting
7.4.2. Task Lighting
7.4.3. Architectural Lighting
7.4.4. Signs and backlights
7.4.5. Mood Lighting
7.4.6. Vehicles
7.4.7. Novelty Lighting
7.5. Market Forecasts

COMPANY PROFILES
1. LED LIGHTING
1.1.1. GE
1.1.2. QD Vision
2. OLED LIGHTING PERFORMANCE AND PRODUCTS
2.1. Company list
2.1.1. Acuity Brands
2.1.2. Astron Fiamm (Blackbody)
2.1.3. First O-Lite
2.1.4. Kaneka
2.1.5. Konica Minolta
2.1.6. Ledon/Tridonic
2.1.7. LG Chem
2.1.8. Lumiotec
2.1.9. Moser Baer Technologies
2.1.10. OLEDWorks
2.1.11. Osram Opto
2.1.12. Panasonic
2.1.13. Philips Lighting
2.1.14. Samsung
2.1.15. Sumitomo Chemical
2.1.16. Toshiba
2.1.17. Verbatim
2.1.18. Visionox
2.1.19. WAC Lighting
3. OLED LIGHTING MATERIALS
3.1. Company Profiles -Organic Materials
3.1.1. Aglaia Tech
3.1.2. BASF
3.1.3. Borun Chemical
3.1.4. CDT
3.1.5. Cheil Industries
3.1.6. Doosan Electronics
3.1.7. Dow Chemical
3.1.8. Duksan Hi-Metal
3.1.9. DuPont
3.1.10. E-Ray Optoelectronics
3.1.11. Heraeus
3.1.12. Hodogaya Chemical
3.1.13. Idemitsu Kosan
3.1.14. Jilin OandE
3.1.15. Johnson Matthey
3.1.16. LG Chemicals
3.1.17. Merck
3.1.18. Mitsubishi Chemicals
3.1.19. Mitsui Chemicals
3.1.20. Novaled
3.1.21. Plextronics
3.1.22. PPG Industries
3.1.23. Sun Fine Chem
3.1.24. Universal Display Corporation
3.2. Company Profiles - Structural Materials
3.2.1. Arkema
3.2.2. Beneq
3.2.3. Cambrios
3.2.4. Corning
3.2.5. DELO
3.2.6. DuPont Teijin Films
3.2.7. Intrinsiq Materials
3.2.8. Novaled
3.2.9. Poly IC
3.2.10. SAES Getters
3.2.11. Schott
4. OLED PANEL MANUFACTURING
4.1. Equipment Suppliers
4.1.1. Aixtron
4.1.2. Applied Materials
4.1.3. Beneq
4.1.4. Fluxim
4.1.5. NovaCentrix
4.1.6. nTact
4.1.7. Sung An Machinery (SAM)
4.1.8. Sunic
4.1.9. Toray
4.1.10. Ulvac
4.1.11. Veeco
4.1.12. Xenon Corporation

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