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U.S DoD Commercial Off-the-Shelf Aircraft Market

  • April 2013
  • 70 pages
  • Frost & Sullivan
Report ID: 1172016

Summary

Table of Contents

Expect a Flat Market Despite Popularity of COTS Platforms

As the DoD's discretionary spending continues to decrease in favor of mandatory government programs, utilization of COTS aircraft has become more popular due to perceived cost savings over developing entirely new aircraft systems. COTS aircraft have also been favored for quick reaction capability (QRC) systems because they allow flexibility and speed in meeting the changing warfighting requirements of commanders in the field. However, the DoD has historically submitted poorly defined requirements for COTS systems which severely limits potential cost savings. This research service analyzes DoD COTS aircraft market drivers, restraints, and trends through 2017 then makes educated predictions beyond the forecast period.

Executive Summary

• The 2013 Department of Defense (DoD) budget request is $X billion, including $X billion in base funds and $X billion in funds for overseas contingency operations (OCO)*.
• Commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) aircraft funding through 2017 is expected to experience a slight X percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR).
• The COTS aircraft market will experience little growth mainly due to DoD budget constraints. While the decreasing budget favors investment in COTS aircraft, it also results in the purchase of fewer total aircraft systems.
• The DoD is forecast to spend $X billion on COTS aircraft airframes and upgrades from 2012 to 2017.
• In 2012, the DoD awarded $X billion to Xprime contractors in the COTS aircraft market. The Boeing Company was the top firm with $X billion in contracts. The Navy’s procurement of P-8 Poseidon aircraft accounted for just over $X billion of that total.
• The top 10 market competitors owned a dominant Xpercent of market spending in 2012.

CEO’s Perspective

1. The DoD COTS aircraft budget is forecast to be flat through 2017. Budget spikes occur in the years 2013 through 2016 since the bulk of P-8 and KC-46 aircraft will be purchased during that time frame.
2. While COTS aircraft are popular for quick reaction capability (QRC) and special missions, the budget squeeze will limit market growth.
3. The optimum utility of using COTS aircraft will not be realized until the DoD determines a more precise method for fully defining COTS platform/program requirements.
4. Aircraft manufacturers hoping to increase COTS sales should look to foreign military sales (FMS) opportunities with U.S. allies.

Key Questions This Study Will Answer

• Is the DoD COTS aircraft the market growing; How long will it continue to grow, and at what rate?
• What segments, technologies, and services make up the market?
• What are the leading market drivers, restraints, and challenges?
• What are the top programs in the market?
• What technologies and services will be emphasized?
• What companies are leading the market?

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