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  5. > Mexico Renewables Report Q3 2016

Mexico Renewables Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 43 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The results of Mexico's first long-term energy auction prompted an upward revision of ourgrowth forecasts for the country's non-hydropower renewables industry, and illustrated the immensepotential of Mexico's solar sector. However, despite strong fundamentals and bullish growth rates acrossthe industry, we believe that the country will fall short of its ambitious targets for renewable energy over thecoming decade.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- Mexican state-owned utility Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE) signed 15-year power purchaseagreements (PPAs) with companies for 1,100MW of solar and 620MW of wind power projects at the firstprivate auction of power in Mexico (SeeNews). The projects are estimated to cost a total of USD2.12bnover the next three years, according to Deputy Electricity Minister Cesar Hernandez (SeeNews). EnelGreen Power emerged as the biggest winner in the auction by securing the right to sign contracts forabout 1GW of solar capacity. The 1.7GW of solar and wind facilities will begin power generation in2018.

- Following Mexico's first long-term energy auction, we have upgraded our growth forecast for thecountry's non-hydro renewables industry. We forecast total industry's capacity to increase from around4.5GW in 2015 to 18.6GW in 2025, amounting to an average annual growth rate of 15.5% during thisperiod. This will boost non-hydro renewables contribution to the country's power generation mix from4.2% in 2015 to 10.4% in 2025.

- The energy auction has reinforced our positive long-term outlook for solar power in the country andprompted us to upgrade our solar capacity and generation forecasts over the next 10 years. With morethan 2,100MW of solar capacity set to come online by 2018, solar sector is expected to account foraround 20% of total non-hydro renewables generation in the country.

- In early March 2016, the 102MW Central Eólica Sureste I Fase II wind park in Oaxaca, southern Mexico,came online. Enel Green Power built the 34-turbine facility for a total cost of USD160mn. The wind farmwill supply its power to Mexican state-owned utility CFE for 20 years.

Table Of Contents

Mexico Renewables Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Renewables Headline Forecasts (Mexico 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Mexico Renewables Forecast Scenario 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 11
Table: Solar Power Projects Contracted At Mexico's First Power Auction 20
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2014-2019) 24
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2020-2025) 25
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2014-2019) 26
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2020-2025) 27
Mexico Renewables Projects Database 28
Table: Mexico - Top 10 Renewables Projects By Capacity (MW) 28
Industry Risk/Reward Index 29
Mexico Renewables Risk/Reward Index 29
Rewards 29
Risks 29
Market Overview 31
Sustainable Energy Policy and Infrastructure 31
Targets 31
Subsidies 31
Infrastructure 32
Competitive Landscape 33
Comisión Federal de Electricidad 33
Acciona Energia Mexico 34
Iberdrola 34
Gamesa Corporación Technólgica 34
Vestas Wind Systems 35
Glossary 37
Table: Glossary Of Terms 37
Methodology 38
Methodology And Sources 38
Industry Forecast Methodology 38
Sources 40
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 40
Table: Renewables Risk/Reward Index Indicators 42
Table: Weighting Indicators 43

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