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Zambia Power Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 50 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Zambia will continue to be a net-importer of electricity in 2016 due to the drought constraininghydropower generation. Despite the government's statements that it would seek to diversify its power sector,most of new capacity investment is focused on hydropower. The 300MW Maamba thermal power plant willprovide some stability to the power sector from 2017.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- Zambian President, Edgar Lungu, has stated that the government is keen to diversify its power mix due tothe ongoing power crisis as a result of the drought. However, we still forecast that hydropower willgenerate more than 80% of Zambia's total electricity output due to a lack of other projects forecast tocome online.

- The 2.4 gigawatt (GW) Batoka Gorge hydropower project - a joint undertaking by Zambia andZimbabwe - has been slated to come online by 2023, according to the Zimbabwean Energy MinisterSamuel Undenge. Due to lack of evidence on progress and previous funding issues, we do not factor thedam into our forecasts as of yet.

- Due to President Lungu's statement that the Zambian government is keen to diversify the power sector,we note that investments into thermal projects are likely for the future. However, due to no new projectsbeing announced as of yet, we still forecast that hydropower will remain dominant.

- Our forecasts for thermal power generation in Zambia remain unchanged. We do not factor in anythermal power increases after the Maamba coal-fired power plant comes online in 2017.

- Parts of Zambia have been experiencing load shedding longer than the scheduled 8 hours. This is due to atechnical fault occurring at the power interconnector with Zimbabwe, according to the Minister ofEnergy.

- Zambia is importing additional electricity from Mozambique. This is due to the 100 megawatt (MW)Karadeniz Holding power ship docked at Nacala, supplying power to both Mozambique and Zambia.

Table Of Contents

Zambia Power Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Zambia 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 9
Zambia Snapshot 9
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Zambia 2014-2019) 9
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Zambia 2020-2025) 9
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 9
Zambia Power Forecast Scenario 10
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecast 10
Thermal Generation And Capacity Forecast 12
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2014-2019) 13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2020-2025) 14
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2014-2019) 14
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2020-2025) 15
Electricity Consumption 15
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2014-2019) 16
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2020-2025) 16
Transmission And Distribution, Imports And Exports 16
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2014-2019) 17
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2020-2025) 18
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2014-2019) 18
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2020-2025) 18
Industry Risk/Reward Index 19
Zambia Power Risk/Reward Index 19
Rewards 19
Risks 19
SSA Power RRI: Shifting Scores Amid A Deteriorating Outlook 20
Table: SSA Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) 26
Market Overview 27
Key Policies And Market Structure 27
Regulation and Competition 27
Pricing 27
SSA Key Policies/Market Structure 28
Competitive Landscape 31
Competitive Landscape 31
Competitive Landscape 31
Regional Overview 36
Middle East And Africa - Regional Overview 36
Glossary 44
Table: Glossary Of Terms 44
Methodology 45
Methodology And Sources 45
Industry Forecast Methodology 45
Sources 48
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 48
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 49
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 50

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