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  5. > Brazil Renewables Report Q3 2016

Brazil Renewables Report Q3 2016

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 44 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The political turmoil surrounding the impeachment of President Rousseff is not seen to have animmediate negative impact on non-hydro renewables, as the interim government's affirmed its commitmentto the sector's development. However, the country's worsening economic recession is expected to threatenprojecting financing and could lead to delays in already contracted projects, particularly for solar power,and undermine future project pipelines. Although auctions in the past quarters showed some stability,obstacles such as high interest rates and a weakened currency have led us to maintain our conservativeoverall estimates also in this quarter.Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- For 2016, we expect overall non-hydro renewables to see a y-o-y capacity and generation growth of 9.2%and 16.3%, respectively. While capacity growth is significantly below 2015-levels, generation isincreasing from last year's strong growth and the slump in domestic energy consumption levels as thewider economic downturn worsens.

- Brazil's House of Representatives is currently debating a bill (4420/16) that would require large energyconsumers in the country to source 20% of their total energy consumption from renewables. Theproposed bill is aimed at increasing the share of non-hydro renewable and small hydropower plants. Theproposal is based on environmental, energy security and economic grounds.

- During the A-5 auctions of April 2016, around 198MW of biomass, almost 263MW of small hydro and62MW of regular hydro projects were contracted - with no wind project receiving supply contracts. Theauction for solar power is scheduled for July, with projects worth 9.2GW having been registered. Thenext auction for wind power is scheduled for October, with another A-3 and reserve auction that wouldinclude wind power currently being considered by the government to take place before end-2016 as well.

Table Of Contents

Brazil Renewables Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Renewables Headline Forecasts (Brazil 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Brazil Renewables Forecast Scenario 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 12
Table: Evolution Of Installed Capacity For Electricity Generation By Source, GW, 2014 And 2024 17
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2019) 24
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2020-2025) 25
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2019) 26
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2020-2025) 27
Brazil Renewables Projects Database 28
Table: Brazil - Top 10 Renewables Projects By Capacity, MW 28
Industry Risk/Reward Index 29
Brazil Renewables Risk/Reward Index 29
Rewards 29
Risks 29
Market Overview 31
Sustainable Energy Policy And Infrastructure 31
Targets 31
Table: Evolution of installed capacity for electricity generation by source, 2014 and 2024, in GW 32
Subsidies 32
Infrastructure 33
Competitive Landscape 35
Eletrobrás 36
Tractebel Energia 36
Vestas Wind Systems A/S 37
Acciona 37
Impsa 37
Glossary 38
Table: Glossary Of Terms 38
Methodology 39
Methodology And Sources 39
Industry Forecast Methodology 39
Sources 41
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 41
Table: Renewables Risk/Reward Index Indicators 43
Table: Weighting Indicators 44

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