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Central America and Caribbean Mining Report 2016

  • April 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 70 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Mining sectors across Central America and the Caribbean will see varying growth prospects in2020. The region has significant untapped mineral potential, yet a range of business environments andoperational challenges will lead to uneven growth.

Latest Developments & Structural Trends

- Colombia: Colombia's coal sector will experience solid growth over our forecast period, as the country'slow operating costs, vast reserves, and supportive regulatory system will encourage growth. We forecastColombian coal production to increase from 95.4 million tonnes (mnt) in 2016 to 115.1mnt by 2020averaging 4.7% y-o-y growth.

- Dominican Republic: The Dominican Republic's gold sector will experience a notable decline in outputover the coming quarters, due to both lower gold grade recoveries and mechanical issues at the PuebloViejo mine. The mine, a joint venture by Canadian miners Barrick Gold (60%) and Goldcorp (40%),accounted for over 90% of the Dominican Republic's annual gold production in 2014. On November 19,2015, the mine reported the sudden failure of two of three electric motors at the mine's oxygen plant.Barrick consequently lowered the firm's 2015 gold forecast, from 6.1-6.3 million ounces (moz) to6.0-6.2moz. Pueblo Viejo accounts for approximately 10.4% of Barrick's total annual gold production.

- In light of the above, we revised down our gold production growth forecast for the Dominican Republic,from 2.5% to -18.0% and 2.0% to -1.0% for 2015 and 2016, respectively. We expect the country's goldoutput to fall from 1.2moz in 2014 to 987 thousand ounces (koz) in 2015, declining further to 976koz in2016. Beyond 2016, the country's gold production will recover modestly, supported largely by ongoingexploration of vast reserves at Pueblo Viejo, resulting in annual output growth averaging 1.6% during2017-2020.

Table Of Contents

Central America and Caribbean Mining Report 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Select Countries - Mining Industry Value 7
Table: Select Countries - Mining Industry Value 7
Latest Developments and Structural Trends 8
SWOT 10
Industry Forecast 11
Colombia - Set For Solid Growth 11
Table: Colombia Coal Production Forecast 11
Expert Miners Only 12
Europe To Be Top Export Destination 13
Dominican Republic - Pueblo Viejo To Drag Down Growth 15
Table: Dominican Republic - Gold Production Forecast 15
Guatemala - Local Opposition To Deter Growth 19
Table: Guatamala Production Forecast 19
Honduras - Challenging Environment To Weigh On Growth 23
Table: Honduras - Production Forecast 23
Jamaica - Government Policies To Hurt Growth 26
Table: Jamaica - Production Forecast 26
Panama - Golden Years Ahead 30
Table: Panama - Gold Production Forecast 30
Table: Panama - Key Mining Projects 30
Suriname: Newmont Project To Double Gold Output 32
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 35
Colombia Risk/Reward Index 35
Rewards 35
Industry Rewards 35
Country Rewards 35
Risks 35
Industry Risks 35
Country Risks 36
Jamaica Risk/Reward Index 36
Rewards 36
Industry Rewards 36
Country Rewards 36
Risks 37
Industry Risks 37
Country Risks 37
Panama Risk/Reward Ratings 37
Rewards 37
Industry Rewards 37
Country Rewards 37
Risks 38
Industry Risks 38
Country Risks 38
The Dominican Republic Risk/Reward Index 38
Rewards 38
Industry Rewards 38
Country Rewards 39
Risks 39
Industry Risks 39
Country Risks 39
Americas - Risk/Reward Divergence To Emerge 39
Key Takeaways 39
Latest Revisions 41
Table: Americas - Mining Risk/Reward Index 42
Regulatory Development 43
Panama To Be Most Favourable Destination 43
Dominican Republic To See Potential Tension 43
Guatemala and Jamaica To Lag 44
Commodities Forecast 45
Commodities Outlook 45
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts 45
Competitive Landscape 46
Smaller Players Pursuing Opportunities 46
Table: Financial Metrics 47
Company Profile 48
First Quantum - Q2 2016 48
Latest Results 51
Table: First Quantum - Key Financial Data 52
Barrick Gold - Q2 2016 54
Company Strategy 55
Latest Results 56
Table: Barrick Gold - Key Financial Data 57
Address Details 58
Goldcorp - Q2 2016 59
Table: Goldcorp - Key Financial Data 61
Regional Overview 62
Methodology 67
Industry Forecast Methodology 67
Sources 68
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 69
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 70

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