Table of Contents
Ensuring Technological Dominance
This research is a qualitative overview of the US DoD Anti-Access/Area Denial operational concept, based on the 2013 program spending request for Department of Defense (DoD) anti-submarine warfare, cybersecurity, electronic warfare, interoperability, and nine other technology areas. Included in this service are research, development, testing, and evaluation (RDT&E); procurement; and operations and maintenance (O&M) programs of record. The study indicates which technology products and services are emphasized in DoD Anti-Access/Area Denial planning based on program requests. The base year for financial spending is 2012 and the market forecast is from 2012 to 2017.
• This research is a technology program environment overview based on the 2013 Department of Defense (DoD) budget request.
• The analysts have selected programs, totaling $ X billion, with an average size of $ X million that represent the DoD’s effort to overcome Anti-Access/Area Denial (AA/AD) challenges.
• DoD AA/AD program spending through 2017 is expected to have a X% compound annual growth rate (CAGR).
• An increased use of joint programs and commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) equipment will be the focus.
• Research, development, testing, and evaluation (RDT&E) is the largest spending category in 2013, with $ billion, or X%, of the total. It also had the largest number of programs, with .
• Logistics is the largest AA/AD technology area in 2013, with 25 programs valued at $ X billion, or X% of the total. Interoperability had the most programs, atXX.
• The Navy/Marines has the largest share of funding at $ X billion, or X%, and has the largest number of programs at . Joint programs have the largest average size at $ X million.
• Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and Boeing are the AA/AD market leaders, participating in a wide variety of technology as service areas.
1. DoD AA/AD priorities are interoperability, missile defense, and weapons.
2. Software, integration engineering, and logistics systems and services are in high demand.
3. By 2017, spending will focus on consolidating redundant programs and improving mature technologies.
4. Legal changes to allow more defense industry concentration may be forthcoming.
5. Leveraging mature commercial technologies has displaced RDT&E in importance.
• Many programs include more than one type of technology area. Programs with overlapping functions were assigned to a specific area, based on the analyst’s best judgment.
• The research service forecasts do not include classified programs and budgets. Portions of the total AA/AD services market information are not accessible to the public.
• AA/AD programs for general operations and maintenance (O&M) spending, ad hoc requirements, existing programs, program improvements, or contract modifications are included.
• Program values do not always align year-to-year due to administration costs, multiyear budgets, and technology use across segments.
• AA/AD estimates, department, type, and technology program segmentation, along with funding forecasts beyond 2013, are made at the analyst’s discretion.
What is AA/AD?
AA/AD refers to the problems and threats to US Forces posed by the increasingly sophisticated military technology deployed by potential adversary nations in the Persian Gulf and the Western Pacific. The US DoD’s Joint Operational Access Concept (JOAC) document is a planning framework to ensure the US is prepared to fight numerically superior adversaries equipped with precision weapons that can inflict serious damage. The JOAC lists the capabilities needed to overcome AA/AD challenges, including “cross-domain synergy,” among land, sea, air, space, and cyber operations.
AA/AD challenges require continued technology investment. Potential adversaries are expected to exploit the current US dependence on satellites, unmanned vehicles, computer systems, and GPS by attacking security gaps. US electronic warfare (EW) capability is not certain against recently deployed anti-aircraft and anti-ship missile systems. US sensors and weapons currently lack the networking and cross-cueing capability that will be required for successful operations against an advanced adversary. Current US weapons will require improvements in range, targeting, speed, and lethality.
This research will look at program funding for technology segments that are vital to meet expected AA/AD challenges. The research focus is on funded programs that are predicted to have impact on maintaining and improving US technological and operational dominance.
• The anti-submarine warfare (ASW) segment includes technologies such as sonar and magnetic anomaly detectors to locate, track, and target submerged submarines.
• The cybersecurity segment includes technologies such as firewalls and forensic analysis tools to protect information technology networks from intrusion or disruption.
• The electronic warfare/information operations (EW/IO) segment includes technologies such as radio frequency jamming that protect friendly use of the electro magnetic spectrum and deny its use to adversaries.
• The interoperability segment includes technologies such as software integration engineering and weapons station standardization to enable seamless joint service and cross domain operations.
• The intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) includes technologies such as signals intelligence, space-based infrared, and tactical full-motion video that provide superior situational awareness.
• The logistics segment includes technologies to maintain forward deployed bases, sustain and repair equipment, and to predict, order, ship, track, and rapidly deliver all types of standardized supplies and services across vast distances to ensure operational advantage.
• The missile defense segment includes technologies such as radar and missiles to detect, track, and defeat enemy missiles through a network or point defense.
• The modeling, simulation, and training (MS&T) segment includes technologies such as live, virtual, and constructive tools that enable scenario creation and rehearsal.
• The satellite segment includes technologies to control, protect, and deliver constant high bandwidth communications, imagery, weather, and locational data to tactical users.
• The torpedo and mine countermeasures (torpedo & mine CM) segment includes technologies such as sonar and decoys to detect, classify, track and defeat enemy underwater weapons.
• The unmanned vehicles segment includes airborne, surface, and subsurface technologies to enable long range communications relay, ISR, targeting, and strike capability.
• The weapons segment includes technologies such as missiles, guns and ammunition, bombs, torpedoes, and directed energy with increased range, speed, lethality, survivability, and networking.
• The weather segment includes technologies to determine ballistic weather data, sea state, water temperatures, and visibility to maximum advantage for operational planning.
Key Questions This Study Will Answer
• What are the growth areas within the DoD AA/AD market, and what will be the program and contract focus through 2017?
• What segments, technologies, and services make up the market?
• What are the leading market drivers and restraints?
• What are the top spending programs for the market?
• What technologies and services will the programs emphasize?
• What companies are the leading participants in the DoD AA/AD market?
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