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Germany Renewables Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 55 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We maintain our upbeat outlook for the German non-hydropower renewables sector thisquarter - with wind power driving growth amid a solar sector slowdown. The introduction of a competitiveauctions system by 2017 will stabilise growth at a slower, albeit more sustainable rate over the next decade,in light of rapid growth over the last decade. This will be the result of a government aim to make thesegment more competitive in order to curb subsidy support growth and curtail further electricity retail pricehikes.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- Germany's offshore wind sector registered 2,3GW of capacity additions connected to the grid over 2015,four times what was added in the UK over the year. The growth spike was a result of a backlog ofdelayed offshore wind projects coming online over the year, taking cumulative offshore installations inthe country to 3.2GW. We expect this deployment rate to fall, as the offshore wind capacity target set at6.5GW leading up to 2020 (cut from an initial 10GW) is too low to support growth at 2015 levels overthe next five years.

- The German government aims to increase the share of renewables in the total power generation mix from29.2% (2016 - BMI forecast) to 35% by 2020. This goal increases to 50% by 2030 and a staggering 80%by 2050. Based on existing trends, we forecast Germany could already surpass its 35% target of nonhydropowerrenewable generation mark in 2021.As part of its strategy of curbing costs for its renewablessubsidy mechanism by making it more cost-competitive, Germany's federal network agencyBundesnetzagentur invited bids for 150MW of solar capacity in February 2015, in the country's firstpilot green energy tender. The regulator accepted proposals for 500MW of solar photovoltaic capacityover 2015, which will be followed by 400MW in 2016 and a further 300MW in 2017. This shift is a partof a wider strategy to curb capacity additions in order to ensure sustainable growth in the Germanrenewables segment. The government aims to deploy the reverse capacity auction system across therenewables sector in 2017.

Table Of Contents

Germany Renewables Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Renewables Headline Forecasts (Germany 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Germany Renewables Forecast Scenario 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 13
Table: Total Annual Capacity Offered In Pilot Auctions 27
Table: Steady Decline In Bidding Prices 28
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Germany 2014-2019) 30
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Germany 2020-2025) 30
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Germany 2014-2019) 31
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Germany 2020-2025) 32
Germany Renewables Projects Database 33
Table: Germany - Top 10 Renewables Projects By Capacity 33
Industry Risk/Reward Index 35
Germany Renewables Risk/Reward Index 35
Rewards 35
Risks 37
Market Overview 38
Sustainable Energy Policy and Infrastructure 38
Emissions 38
Renewables 39
Subsidies 39
Infrastructure 41
Competitive Landscape 44
EON 44
RWE 46
Vattenfall 46
DONG Energy 47
Siemens 47
Glossary 49
Table: Glossary Of Terms 49
Methodology 50
Methodology And Sources 50
Industry Forecast Methodology 50
Sources 52
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 52
Table: Renewables Risk/Reward Index Indicators 54
Table: Weighting Indicators 55

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