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EpiCast Report: Asthma - Epidemiology Forecast to 2023

  • September 2014
  • -
  • Global Data
  • -
  • 87 pages

EpiCast Report: Asthma - Epidemiology Forecast to 2023

Summary

Asthma is a chronic inflammatory lung disease that affects persons of all ages, but most commonly starts in childhood. It is a common long-term condition characterized by narrowing of the airways, leading to airflow limitation and airway hyper-responsiveness whenever the lungs come into contact with endogenous and exogenous irritants. Exposure to irritants instigates a series of events, such as swelling of the airways, tightening of the respiratory muscles, and increased mucus production, leading to reduced airflow into the lungs.

In 2013, there were 137.66 million lifetime prevalent cases of asthma in the 10MM, with 82.71 million cases in the US (43.16 million cases) and India (39.55 million cases) combined. GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that there will be approximately 161.02 million lifetime prevalent cases of asthma in the 10MM by 2023, with an overall growth of 17.0% over the next decade.

GlobalData epidemiologists forecast the prevalent cases of asthma in the 10MM from 2013-2023 using country-specific studies published in peer-reviewed journals that provided the age- and sex-specific prevalence of asthma in the respective markets. The epidemiologists made sure that all the selected nationally-representative studies in the respective countries assessed the lifetime asthma prevalence using the same study definition, thereby ensuring that the results forecast for each country are comparable. In addition, the lifetime prevalent cases of asthma in each country were further segmented by asthma severity based on the Global Initiative for Asthma guidelines. The forecast methodology was consistent across all the 10MM to allow for a meaningful comparison among them.

Scope

- The Asthma EpiCast Report provides an overview of the risk factors, comorbidities, and global trends for asthma in the ten major markets (10MM) (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, Australia, China, and India). It includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast of the lifetime prevalent cases of asthma segmented by sex, age (in five-year increments beginning at 0 years and ending at =85 years), and asthma severity in these markets.
- The Asthma epidemiology report is written and developed by Masters- and PhD-level epidemiologists.
- The EpiCast Report is in-depth, high quality, transparent and market-driven, providing expert analysis of disease trends in the 10MM.

Reasons to buy

- Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global Asthma market.
- Quantify patient populations in the global Asthma market to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.
- Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the sex and age groups that present the best opportunities for Asthma therapeutics in each of the markets covered.

Table Of Contents

EpiCast Report: Asthma - Epidemiology Forecast to 2023
1 Table of Contents

2 Introduction 8
2.1 Catalyst 8
2.2 Related Reports 9
2.3 Upcoming Reports 9
3 Epidemiology 10
3.1 Disease Background 10
3.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities 11
3.2.1 Family history of asthma is a strong predictor for asthma in children and adults 12
3.2.2 Puberty alters the risk for asthma in boys and girls 13
3.2.3 Maternal smoking during pregnancy greatly increases the risk of childhood asthma 14
3.2.4 Allergens are well-known asthma triggers 15
3.2.5 Common workplace exposures account for up to 11% of asthma cases in adults 16
3.2.6 Urban living conditions, not race, increase the risk of asthma by almost 50% 17
3.2.7 Obesity almost triples the risk of developing asthma 18
3.2.8 Asthmatics are 90% more likely to develop GERD 19
3.2.9 85% of asthmatics have allergic rhinitis 20
3.2.10 Panic disorders are common in asthmatics and severely impact disease control 21
3.2.11 39% of asthmatics are likely to develop depression 22
3.3 Global Trends 22
3.3.1 US 23
3.3.2 France 25
3.3.3 Germany 26
3.3.4 Italy 27
3.3.5 Spain 27
3.3.6 UK 28
3.3.7 Japan 30
3.3.8 Australia 30
3.3.9 China 31
3.3.10 India 32
3.4 Forecast Methodology 33
3.4.1 Sources Used 34
3.4.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods 46
3.4.3 Sources Not Used 54
3.5 Epidemiology Forecast for Asthma (2013-2023) 55
3.5.1 Lifetime Prevalent Cases of Asthma 55
3.5.2 Age-Specific Lifetime Prevalent Cases of Asthma 57
3.5.3 Sex-Specific Lifetime Prevalent Cases of Asthma 59
3.5.4 Age-Standardized Lifetime Prevalence of Asthma 61
3.5.5 Distribution of Lifetime Prevalent Cases of Asthma by Severity 63
3.6 Discussion 65
3.6.1 Conclusions on Epidemiology Trends 65
3.6.2 Limitations of the Analysis 67
3.6.3 Strengths of the Analysis 68
4 Appendix 70
4.1 Bibliography 70
4.2 About the Authors 82
4.2.1 Epidemiologists 82
4.2.2 Reviewers 82
4.2.3 Acting Director of Epidemiology 83
4.2.4 Global Head of Healthcare 84
4.3 About GlobalData 85
4.4 About EpiCast 85
4.5 Disclaimer 86

1.1 List of Tables

Table 1: GINA Guidelines for Classification of Asthma by Severity 11
Table 2: Risk Factors and Comorbidities of Asthma 12
Table 3: Lifetime Prevalence (%) of Asthma by Race in the US, All Ages, Both Sexes, 2001-2011 24
Table 4: Trends in the Prevalence (%) of Self-Reported Asthma in Children in Spain 28
Table 5: Trends in the Lifetime Prevalence (%) of Asthma in the UK 29
Table 6: Lifetime Prevalence (%) of Asthma in Children in China 32
Table 7: Prevalence (%) of Asthma in Children and Adults in India 33
Table 8: Questions Asked to Assess Lifetime Asthma Prevalence 34
Table 9: 10MM, Epidemiological Sources of Lifetime Asthma Prevalence Data 35
Table 10: 10MM, Epidemiological Sources of Asthma Severity Data 36
Table 11: Overview of the Ellis Criteria for Childhood Asthma Severity Classification 46
Table 12: 10MM, Lifetime Prevalent Cases of Asthma, All Ages, Men and Women, N (Millions), 2013-2023 56
Table 13: 10MM, Lifetime Prevalent Cases of Asthma, by Age, N (Millions), (Row %), 2013 58
Table 14: All Markets, Lifetime Prevalent Cases of Asthma, by Sex, All Ages, N (Row %), 2013 60
Table 15: 10MM, Lifetime Prevalent Cases of Asthma by Severity, All Ages, Men and Women, N (Row %), 2013 64

1.2 List of Figures

Figure 1: Lifetime Prevalence (%) of Asthma by Race in the US, All Ages, Both Sexes, 2001-2011 25
Figure 2: 10MM, Lifetime Prevalent Cases of Asthma, All Ages, Men and Women, N (Millions), 2013-2023 57
Figure 3: 10MM, Lifetime Prevalent Cases of Asthma, by Age, N (Millions), 2013 59
Figure 4: All Markets, Lifetime Prevalent Cases of Asthma, by Sex, N (Millions), 2013 61
Figure 5: 10MM, Age-Standardized Lifetime Prevalence of Asthma, All Ages, Men and Women, %, 2013 62
Figure 6: 10MM, Lifetime Prevalent Cases of Asthma by Severity, All Ages, Men and Women, N (Millions), 2013 65

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