Spain Petrochemicals Report Q2 2009

Spain Petrochemicals Report Q2 2009

As the financial crisis moves into Q209, the Spanish petrochemical industry is still feeling the pressure,
with many high-profile companies facing profit losses on a month-to-month basis. The global economic
crisis is forcing companies to merge and deal with the deceleration in global trade and declining domestic
consumption. Spain and Western Europe have been seriously affected by the financial crisis in 2009 and
the estimated declining production rates over the next three years have confirmed this. Spain’s ethylene
production is not set to rise until 2013, while Western Europe’s ethylene capacity is estimated to drop by
3.8% over the next three years.
Spain’s chemical industry is still being affected by capacity constraints, high energy costs and insufficient
transport and logistics infrastructure – all of which are having a dramatic effect on petrochemical
companies throughout the country and making production and profitability a continuous struggle. Many
of the larger petrochemical companies are trying to expand capacity limits over the next few years to try
to combat the predicted stagnation that the industry faces.
Spain scores 66.5 points and lies in sixth place in our Western Europe Petrochemicals Ranking, 5.3 points
behind the Netherlands and 6.8 points behind the regional average of 73.3 points. Its score fell 0.6 points
since the previous quarter due to deterioration in its country risk score, particularly in terms of ratings for
long-term financial market risk.

Executive Summary 5
Spain Petrochemicals SWOT 5
Spain Political SWOT... 6
Spain Economic SWOT. 6
Global Market Overview..7
Global Ethylene Capacities .. 7
Table: World Ethylene Production By Country, 2007 And 2012 (‘000 tonnes capacity) ....... 7
Polypropylene..... 10
Quarterly Oil Products Price Outlook 13
Table: Oil Product Price, 2006-2013 (US$/bbl) . 16
Market Overview....17
Market Structure. 17
Table: Spain Polymer Capacity .. 19
Table: Spain – Petrochemicals Sector – Cracker Capacity Data & Forecasts (‘000 tpa) [this table shouldn’t be blank!] ...Error! Bookmark not
defined.
European Overview.......20
Regulation... 20
Table: Key Elements Of REACH. 21
Production .. 22
Spain Petrochemicals Business Environment....23
Limits Of Potential Returns. 23
Risks To Realisation Of Returns . 24
Industry Trends And Developments ....25
Mergers, Acquisitions And Related Developments...... 27
Financial Results 30
Algerian Gas Dispute.. 31
Energy Security Concerns EU .... 32
Industry Forecast Scenario ...33
Table: Spain’s Oil, Gas And Petrochemicals Industy, 2004-2013 ....... 34
Macroeconomic Outlook..... 35
Company Monitor..39
Repsol YPF. 39
Cia Espanola de Petroleos SA (Cepsa)....... 42
LyondellBasell .... 44
La Seda de Barcelona (La Seda, LSB) 45
Country Snapshot: Spain Demographic Data .....47
Section 1: Population.. 47
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030....... 47
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ...... 48
Section 2: Education And Healthcare. 48
Table: Education, 2002-2005 ..... 48
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030....... 48
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power . 49
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006. 49
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ....... 49
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012 50
BMI Forecast Modelling51
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts . 51
Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry .... 51
Cross Checks ...... 52
Business Environment Ratings.... 53
Table: Petrochemicals Business Environment Indicators And Rationale..... 53
Weighting.... 54
Table: Weighting Of Indicators .. 54