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  4. > Indonesia Freight Transport Report Q3 2015

Indonesia Freight Transport Report Q3 2015

  • June 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 57 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:

Across Indonesia's different freight modes, we are expecting cargo volume growth in a range of 0.5%-8% during 2015. Aviation and rail will lead the way, with road freight growing more slowly. Despite a slow start in Q115, both GDP and foreign trade expansion will support the freight sector. In the medium to longer term we continue to think that the key to sustainable growth is investment in port infrastructure, including road and rail links in the hinterland areas. The new government wants to push forward on this front. Capacity problems remain an issue, but new investment projects in ports, airports, road and rail are being launched.

Despite a slower first quarter and some negative factors, such as adverse terms of trade and high interest rates, we remain optimistic over Indonesia's economic prospects in 2015. Q115 GDP growth slowed to 4.7%, down from 5.0% in Q414. This was due to a contraction in the export sector, weakness in domestic consumer demand, and delays in the government's ambitious infrastructure investment programmes. Taking these factors together, we are now forecasting Indonesian GDP growth of 5.3% this year, up from 5.0% in 2014.

Table Of Contents

Indonesia Freight Transport Report Q3 2015
BMI Industry View ... 7
SWOT 9
Freight Transport .. 9
Political . 10
Economic ... 12
Operational Risk . 14
Industry Forecast .. 16
Trade Forecast 16
Table: Trade Overview (Indonesia 2012-2019) 19
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Indonesia 2012-2019) . 19
Table: Main Import Partners . 21
Table: Main Export Partners . 21
Road Freight Forecast .. 22
Table: Road Freight (Indonesia 2012-2019) . 24
Rail Freight Forecast ... 24
Table: Rail Freight (Indonesia 2012-2019) 26
Air Freight Forecast 27
Table: Air Freight (Indonesia 2012-2019) . 29
Company Profile 30
Garuda Indonesia (Cargo) 30
Political Outlook 33
Domestic Politics . 33
Long-Term Political Outlook . 36
Table: Indonesia Political Overview . 40
Oil Price Outlook ... 41
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts 41
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2013-2018 41
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2019-2024 ( Global 2019-2024) 42
Macroeconomic Forecast 44
Demographic Forecast . 49
Demographic Outlook .. 49
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Indonesia 1990-2025) 50
Table: Key Population Ratios (Indonesia 1990-2025) . 50
Table: Urban/Rural Population And Life Expectancy (Indonesia 1990-2025) 51
Table: Population By Age Group (Indonesia 1990-2025) 51
Table: Population By Age Group % (Indonesia 1990-2025) . 52
Methodology .. 54
Industry Forecast Methodology 54
Sector-Specific Methodology 55
Sources 57

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