Indonesia Freight Transport Report Q3 2014

  • July 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 88 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updatesWe have reduced our GDP growth forecast for Indonesia this year, cutting it back to 5.1%, down from the 5.4% we were predicting in our previous quarterly shipping report. The main reason is growing political risk ahead of the presidential elections due in July 2014, coupled with increased economic nationalism from the outgoing government. Taken together these things are persuading investors to wait things out. Economic growth in the first quarter had already slowed to 5.1%. The ban on mineral ore exports (introduced to try and force mining companies to do more refining and processing within Indonesia) has had a negative effect,
particularly as it has coincided with slowing Chinese demand for Indonesian coal. Other measures (such as new restrictions on foreign participation in the oil and gas sector) have also concerned investors. We expect slowing investment to be the main drag on growth this year.

On the plus side, however we believe that presidential front runner Joko Widodo (Jokowi), the former mayor of Jakarta, who is favourite to win the contest, is reform minded and is prepared to strike an astute balance between the needs of foreign investors and domestic political constituencies. Although his detailed policies have yet to be spelled out, we think he could boost the infrastructure, mining, and oil and gas sectors, although admittedly he may face an uphill task in coalescing political support for his plans, given the expected fragmentary nature of the new parliament.

Our freight transport forecast for 2014 shows a slower pace of growth, as the economy decelerates. This slowdown will be partially offset by something of a recovery in foreign trade that we expect during the course of the year. On the medium to longer term we continue to think that the key to sustainable growth is investment in port infrastructure, including road and rail links in the hinterland areas. We are encouraged to see some evidence of progress on this front. Capacity problems remain an issue, but new investment projects in ports, airports, road, and rail are being launched.

Table Of Contents

Indonesia Freight Transport Report Q3 2014
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 10
Freight Transport .. 10
Political 11
Economic . 13
Business Environment 15
Industry Forecast .. 16
Road and Rail .. 17
Table: Indonesia - Rail Freight, 2011-2018 19
Air .. 19
Table: Indonesia - Air Freight, 2011-2018 . 19
Maritime 19
Table: Indonesia - Maritime Freight, 2011-2018 21
Trade .. 21
Table: Indonesia - Trade Overview, 2011-2018 . . 21
Table: Indonesia - Key Trade Indicators, 2011-2018 . . 22
Table: Top Import Sources, 2004-2012 . . 23
Table: Top Export Destinations, 2004-2012 24
Market Overview 25
Industry Trends And Developments .. 29
Intermodal . 29
Rail . 30
Air .. 31
Maritime 31
Company Profile . 35
Garuda Indonesia (Cargo) 35
Samudera Shipping Line 38
Trada Maritime (TRAM) 40
Political Outlook . 42
Domestic Politics 42
Latest Developments . 43
Core View .. 43
Risk To Outlook 45
Long-Term Political Outlook 46
Table: Table: Indonesia Political Overview . . 49
Oil Price Outlook 50
Bunker Fuel . 50
Table: BMI Crude Oil and Bunker Fuel Price Forecast (USD/bbl) . . 50
The Storm Clears For Shipping .. 51
(Slightly) Better Times For Bunker Prices 53
Long-Term Threats Linger .. 54
Pressing Rotterdam and New York Harder . 56
Risks To Outlook .. 57
Jet Fuel 57
Table: BMI Crude Oil and Jet Fuel Price Forecast, USD/bbl . 57
Better Outlook Tames Price Fall 58
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volume Growth . 60
Risks To Outlook .. 63
Diesel 64
Table: BMI Crude Oil And Diesel Price Forecast (USD/bbl) 64
New York's One-Off Heat Up .. 64
NY: Short-Term Diesel Price Support Expected . 67
Rotterdam: Green Policies Drive Diesel Forward . 71
Singapore: Diesel Support With Power Risks .. 73
Risks To Outlook .. 77
Macroeconomic Forecast 78
Economic Analysis . 78
Table: Indonesia - Economic Activity 81
Demographic Forecast .. 82
Table: Indonesia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) . . 83
Table: Indonesia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . . 84
Table: Indonesia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 85
Table: Indonesia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . . 85
Methodology . 86
Industry Forecast Methodology . 86
Sector-Specific Methodology .. 87
Sources .. 88

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