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Angola Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

  • May 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 85 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Angola's oil production is forecast to remain strong and unaffected by low oil prices, withoutput rising up until 2018. Post-2018 oil production will fall off due to a steep decline in rates on maturefields and no new projects forecast to counteract the declines. However, with plenty of pre-FID projects inthe pipeline and a strong oil major presence, oil production risks lie to the upside. Gas production willremain limited throughout our forecast with weak domestic demand, but will benefit from the ALNG comingback online after two years of closure. The downstream outlook is bleak, as we have removed one of the twoplanned refineries from our forecast due to a lack of progress and the poor financial position of Sonangol.

Latest Updates And Key Trends

- Angola will see continued exploration of its prospective offshore waters. However, we expect aslowdown in high-cost, high-risk ultra-deepwater and pre-salt drilling as companies look to rein in capitalexpenditure and exercise tighter fiscal discipline.

- We have removed the planned 200,000 barrel per day (b/d) Lobito refinery from our forecast due to thelack of progress on construction plans and the fragile state of Sonangol, the state petroleum company.The removal of the Lobito refinery from our forecast has resulted in Angola remaining a net importer ofrefined fuels for the decade. Angola has a rapidly growing refined fuels demand with consumptionaveraging 4.0% over the next 10 years driven by robust construction sector growth and rises in disposablehousehold income. Therefore, despite the Soyo refinery helping to ease imports needs from 80,000 b/d in2018 to less than 2,000 b/d in 2020, strong domestic consumption will result in imports rising post-2020and by 2025 we expect Angola's refined fuels imports to stand at 33,000 b/d.

Table Of Contents

Angola Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Angola 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Upstream Projects 13
Table: Angola's Major Upstream Projects 13
Upstream Production - Oil 19
Latest Updates 19
Structural Trends 19
Table: Angola Key Projects Pre-FID 21
Table: Oil Production (Angola 2014-2019) 22
Table: Oil Production (Angola 2020-2025) 22
Upstream Production - Gas 23
Latest Updates 23
Structural Trends 23
Table: Gas Production (Angola 2014-2019) 26
Table: Gas Production (Angola 2020-2025) 26
Refining 26
Latest Updates 26
Structural Trends 26
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Angola 2014-2019) 27
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Angola 2020-2025) 28
Gas Consumption 28
Latest Updates 28
Structural Trends 28
Table: Gas Consumption (Angola 2014-2019) 31
Table: Gas Consumption (Angola 2020-2025) 31
Trade - Oil 31
Latest Updates 31
Structural Trends 31
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts 31
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Angola 2014-2020) 33
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Angola 2020-2025) 33
Fuels Trade Forecasts 34
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Angola 2014-2019) 35
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Angola 2020-2025) 35
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 36
Latest Updates 36
Structural Trends 36
Table: Gas Net Exports (Angola 2014-2019) 38
Table: Gas Net Exports (Angola 2020-2025) 39
Industry Risk Reward Index 40
Africa - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 40
Table: BMI Africa Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 40
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential 43
Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index 43
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity 46
Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index 46
Angola - Risk/Reward Index 48
Upstream Index - Overview 48
Downstream Index - Overview 48
Market Overview 49
Angola Energy Market Overview 49
Fiscal Regime 49
Table: Angola MPSA Main Fiscal Terms 49
Licensing Regime 50
Table: Angola MPSA Main Contract Terms 50
Licensing Rounds 50
Table: Angola 2015 Onshore Bid Round 50
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 51
Oil Refineries 51
Table: Angola Oil Refineries 51
Oil Storage Facilities 51
Table: Angola Onshore Oil Storage Facilities 51
Oil Trade Facilities 52
Table: Angola Oil Trade Facilities 52
LNG Terminals 53
Table: Angola LNG Terminals 53
Competitive Landscape 54
Competitive Landscape Summary 54
Table: Key Players In Angola's Oil and Gas Sector 55
Table: Key Upstream Players 56
Table: Key Downstream Players 56
Company Profile 57
Sonangol 57
Latest Updates 57
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Angola 58
BP Angola 59
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Angola 60
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn) 60
Chevron 61
Latest Updates 61
Table: Major Projects In Angola 62
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn) 62
Eni Angola Production 63
Latest Updates 63
Table: Major Assets In Angola 64
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn) 64
Esso Exploration Angola 65
Latest Updates 65
Table: Key Assets In Angola 66
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn) 66
Total Exploration Angola 67
Latest Updates 67
Table: Key Assets In Angola 68
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn) 68
Regional Overview 69
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil 69
Table: Africa Oil and Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade 77
Glossary 78
Table: Glossary Of Terms 78
Methodology 80
Industry Forecast Methodology 80
Source 82
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 82
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 84
Table: Weighting 85

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