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  4. > Indonesia Petrochemicals Report Q3 2016

Indonesia Petrochemicals Report Q3 2016

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 79 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The overhaul of Indonesian petrochemicals producer Chandra Asri Petrochemicals' cracker in2015 will boost the firm's revenues and output in 2016, and enable Indonesia to leverage the competitiveadvantages it enjoys in naphtha feedstock as well as the falling value of the rupiah. However, the marketremains dependent on imports, and expansion is not happening at a pace fast enough to fulfil local demand.The development of a world-scale petrochemicals facility is still at least five years away, and in themeantime much of Indonesia's market growth will be served by imports.Indonesia has a high level of import requirements and would need a world-scale petrochemicals complex toachieve self-sufficiency. In all, Indonesia had just 44% self-sufficiency in polymer resins in 2015, withdemand for polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) at 3.11mn tonnes and production at 1.38mn tonnes.In Q116, Chandra Asri Petrochemicals (CAP) was bringing its expanded facility back online, albeit withinitial technical problems causing stoppages and low capacity utilisation. The expansion means productioncapacity of ethylene and propylene is expected to increase to 860,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) and470,000tpa respectively, from 600,000tpa and 320,000tpa in 2015. CAP hopes the growth will lead torevenues rising by at least 30%, helping to sustain net profit at 4.7%.Indonesia is also ramping up propylene capacity. The Cilacap RFCC, which came into operation in Q415,added 180,000tpa of propylene capacity. With CAP needing only a further 10,000tpa of propylene to run its480,000tpa PP plant at full operating capacity, Indonesia has made a major step towards propylene selfsufficiency,potentially with an exportable surplus. However, the economics may not stack up in setting up anew PP plant, which would need to be big enough to compete with regional rivals.

Table Of Contents

Indonesia Petrochemicals Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Political 10
Economic 12
Operational Risk 14
Industry Forecast 16
Table: Petrochemicals Projects in Indonesia 18
Table: Indonesia's Petrochemicals Sector, 2012-2020 20
Macroeconomic Forecasts 22
Economic Analysis 22
Industry Risk/Reward Index 25
Asia Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index 25
Table: Asia Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Ranking 27
Indonesia Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index 28
Market Overview 30
Table: Indonesian Petrochemicals Sector Capacity 33
Industry Trends And Developments 34
Fertiliser 36
Upstream 38
Table: Refineries In Indonesia 40
Company Profile 42
Chandra Asri (CACP) 42
Table: Chandra Asri - Financial Results (USDmn) 43
Pertamina 45
Petrokimia Gresik (Petrogres) 50
Regional Overview 52
Asia Overview 52
Global Industry Overview 62
Demographic Forecast 69
Demographic Outlook 69
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Indonesia 1990-2025) 70
Table: Key Population Ratios (Indonesia 1990-2025) 70
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Indonesia 1990-2025) 71
Table: Population By Age Group (Indonesia 1990-2025) 71
Table: Population By Age Group % (Indonesia 1990-2025) 72
Glossary 74
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms 74
Methodology 75
Industry Forecast Methodology 75
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 77
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Indicators 78
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 79

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