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Australia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q3 2014

  • April 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 130 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:

Pharmaceutical firms can expect swifter access to the Australian pharmaceutical market, following the scrapping of the Pharmaceutical Benefits Pricing Authority. Given that the development will not have a significant impact on how drugs are listed on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme, we have maintained our pharmaceutical sales forecast. However, we highlight that any potential reform of the healthcare system is a downside risk to our forecasts.

While the Abbott administration has repeatedly stressed its commitment to healthcare, we note that any reduction in government health expenditure will invariably lead to a decline in overall health expenditure, which, in turn, will also affect our pharmaceutical sales forecast, constituting a downside risk.

Headline Expenditure Projections

- Pharmaceuticals: AUD12.75bn (USD12.30bn) in 2013 to AUD13.18bn (USD11.34bn) in 2014; +3.42% in local currency terms and -7.8% in US dollar terms, due to significant exchange rate fluctuations.
Forecast was downgraded after taking into account new data from Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme's expenditure.

Table Of Contents

Australia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q3 2014
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 10
Political 12
Economic 13
Business Environment 14
Industry Forecast 16
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast 16
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Australia 2010-2018) 20
Healthcare Market Forecast 20
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Australia 2010-2018) 23
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Australia 2010-2018) 24
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Australia 2010-2018) 24
Prescription Drug Market Forecast 25
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Australia 2010-2018) 26
Patented Drug Market Forecast 27
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Australia 2010-2018) 28
Generic Drugs Forecast 29
Table: Cost Of Selected Drugs Post-Price Disclosure, April 2013 31
Table: Generics Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Australia 2010-2018) 32
OTC Medicine Market Forecast 33
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Australia 2010-2018) 33
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast 34
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecast (Australia 2012-2018) 35
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Australia 2012-2018) 35
Other Healthcare Data 35
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario 36
Macroeconomic Forecasts 37
Monetary Easing Can Only Do So Much 38
Weaker AUD To Provide Some Reprieve 39
Table: Australia - Economic Activity 40
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 41
Asia Risk/Reward Ratings 41
Australia Risk/Reward Ratings 47
Rewards 47
Risks 48
Market Overview 49
Industry Trends And Developments 51
Epidemiology 51
Table: Main Causes Of Death In Australia, 2011 52
Table: Percentage Of Children Immunised (October 1 - December 31 2011) 53
Regulatory Development 54
Regulatory Regime 54
Table: Summary Of TGA Reforms 55
Table: EU And ICH Guidelines Adopted In The Tga's Biosimilars Guidance Document 58
OTC Switching Climate 58
Regional Regulatory Harmonisation 59
Recent Developments 60
Intellectual Property Issues 64
Trade Agreements 68
Pricing And Reimbursement 69
Table: Historical PBS Co-Payments 70
Pricing And Reimbursement Developments 75
Table: New PBS Formularies 76
Competitive Landscape 77
Pharmaceutical Industry 77
Company Developments 78
Pharmaceutical Distribution 85
Table: Top-20 Pharmaceutical Suppliers By Value From Processed PBS Prescriptions (AUDmn), ending June 2012 87
Company Profile 88
Sigma 88
API 93
Alphapharm 97
Herron 100
CSL 103
Mayne 108
Sanofi 112
GlaxoSmithKline 115
Merck and Co 120
Demographic Forecast 123
Table: Australia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 124
Table: Australia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 125
Table: Australia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 126
Table: Australia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 126
Glossary 127
Methodology 129
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model 129
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model 129
Notes On Methodology 130

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