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  5. > Ecuador Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

Ecuador Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

  • May 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 84 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Ecuador's upstream sector will suffer from the broader industry downturn through theremainder of the decade, but its downstream sector is likely to shift to net exporter status by 2018. We holda modest growth outlook for the country as a result of increasingly limited upstream prospects andcontinued uncertainty regarding the future of Ecuador's largest untapped oil field.

Latest Updates and Key Forecasts:

- We have upgraded our forecast for Ecuadorian liquids production to account for increased investmentinto its mature oil assets. We now expect the country to return to growth in 2016 as oilfield services(OFS) providers boost output from existing projects.

- The continued practice of non-intervention by OPEC members will maintain elevated production levelsand sustain oil price weakness over the next year. While profits within the sector will suffer, we believethe government will meet its external debt commitments over the next year owing to structural changeswithin the country's domestic economy.

- The controversial ITT heavy oil field project began in April, with Petroamazonas spudding its first wellin the Tiputini field on the fringe of the Yasuni National Park. Development of Block 43 began from theTiputini C drilling pad in the Amazon rainforest despite strong grassroots and international opposition tothe project given the environmentally sensitive nature of the area. First oil from the area is expectedbefore the end of the year, with production expected to reach 20,000b/d by December.

- The start-up of the modernised Esmeraldas refinery in Q415 will weigh on Ecuador's net crude exports asimported supplies are used to feed the facility.

- With respect to gas, what little activity there is remains centred on bolstering output from Block 6 in theGulf of Guayaquil. While there has been some investment into further exploration, we believe productionof natural gas will remain minimal such that output will begin to slip toward the mid-point of our forecastperiod.

Table Of Contents

Ecuador Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Ecuador 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 8
Oil and Gas SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Upstream Projects 13
Table: Ecuador - Key Upstream Projects 13
Upstream Production - Oil 14
Latest Updates 14
Structural Trends 14
Table: Oil Production (Ecuador 2014-2019) 21
Table: Oil Production (Ecuador 2020-2025) 21
Upstream Production - Gas 22
Latest Updates 22
Structural Trends 22
Table: Gas Production (Ecuador 2014-2019) 24
Table: Gas Production (Ecuador 2020-2025) 24
Refining 25
Latest Updates 25
Structural Trends 25
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Ecuador 2014-2019) 27
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Ecuador 2020-2025) 28
Refined Fuels Consumption 29
Latest Updates 29
Structural Trends 29
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Ecuador 2014-2019) 30
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Ecuador 2020-2025) 31
Gas Consumption 32
Latest Updates 32
Structural Trends 32
Table: Gas Consumption (Ecuador 2014-2019) 33
Table: Gas Consumption (Ecuador 2020-2025) 34
Trade - Oil 35
Crude Oil Trade: Latest Updates 35
Crude Oil Trade: Structural Trends 35
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ecuador 2014-2020) 37
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ecuador 2020-2025) 37
Fuels Trade: Latest Updates 37
Fuels Trade: Structural Trends 37
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ecuador 2014-2019) 38
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ecuador 2020-2025) 39
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) 40
Latest Updates 40
Structural Trends 40
Table: Gas Net Exports (Ecuador 2014-2019) 42
Table: Gas Net Exports (Ecuador 2020-2025) 42
Industry Risk/Reward Index 43
Latin America - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 43
Table: Latin America - Composite Risk/Reward Index 43
Composite RRI: Industry Downturn Weighs On Regional Performance 44
Upstream: Few Shifts, But Changes Loom 45
Table: Latin America - Upstream Risk/Reward Index 46
Downstream: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics 48
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index 50
Ecuador - Risk/Reward Index 51
Ecuador Upstream Index 51
Ecuador Downstream Index 52
Market Overview 53
Ecuador Energy Market Overview 53
Licensing And Regulation 53
Government Policy 53
Licensing Rounds 54
International Energy Relations 55
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 57
Oil Refineries 57
Table: Refineries In Ecuador 58
Service Stations 59
Oil Pipelines 59
Oil Storage 60
Competitive Landscape 61
Table: Key Upstream Players 62
Table: Key Downstream Players 62
Company Profile 63
Petroecuador/Petromazonas 63
Table: Major Upstream Assets in Ecuador 64
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn) 64
Regional Overview 66
Latin America Overview 66
Table: Latin America Oil And Gas Production, Refining Capacity And Trade, 2014-2025 75
Glossary 77
Table: Glossary Of Terms 77
Methodology 79
Industry Forecast Methodology 79
Source 81
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 81
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 83
Table: Weighting 84

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