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Caribbean Tourism Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 48 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Arrivals growth in the Caribbean will pick up to 2.5% in 2016, reflecting improved visitornumbers from Europe and North America. The Dominican Republic, St Eustatius and Cuba are expectingthe highest rate of arrivals growth, but all tourism markets except St Vincent will experience growth in2016. However, the outbreak of the Zika virus from late 2015 could pose downside risks to 2016 arrivalsforecasts.We currently expect arrivals to the Caribbean to grow by 2.5% in 2016, to 33.5mn, reflecting animprovement from growth of only 0.7% in 2015.

We expect the Dominican Republic, Cuba, St Eustatiusand St Lucia to post the highest level of arrivals growth in 2016, at around 6%, but we note the positive signthat all Caribbean countries except St Vincent will experience arrivals growth in 2016, for the first timesince the downturn.We hold an especially positive outlook on Cuba, given steady progress in the renewal of relations with theUS. This has already reaped benefits in terms of tourism, transport and hotel developments. PresidentObama has relaxed long-standing restrictions on US nationals visiting Cuba, meaning that Cuba can expectto benefit from increased US tourism. In addition, an aviation agreement signed in early 2016 paves the wayfor direct US-Cuba commercial flights, while a ferry service between Florida and Cuba. Moreover, in April,US hotel companies Starwood and Marriott announced plans to expand into the Cuban hotel sector.Altogether, we believe that this paves the way for long-term US investment into Cuba's hotel sector, whichwill present considerable opportunities over the forecast period.

Table Of Contents

Caribbean Tourism Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 8
Tourism 8
Industry Forecast 10
Regional Forecast 10
Table: Caribbean Inbound Tourism, 2012-2020 12
Table: Caribbean Country-By-Country Breakdown Of Arrivals, Excluding Cruise, 2014-2020 13
Table: Caribbean Arrivals By Method and Region, 2012-2020 16
Table: Caribbean Transport and Travel Receipts, 2012-2020 18
Table: Caribbean Hotel Accommodation, 2012-2020 20
Table: Caribbean Hotels and Restaurants Industry Value, 2012-2020 21
Country-Specific Forecasts 22
The Bahamas 22
Table: Bahamas Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2020 23
The Dominican Republic 23
Table: Dominican Republic Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2020 24
Jamaica 24
Table: Jamaica Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2020 26
Aruba 26
Table: Aruba Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2020 27
Cuba 27
Table: Cuba Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2020 29
The Cayman Islands 29
Table: Cayman Islands Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2020 30
Puerto Rico 30
Table: Puerto Rico Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2020 31
Barbados 31
Table: Barbados Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2020 32
St Lucia 32
Table: St Lucia Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2019 33
Trinidad and Tobago 33
Industry Risk/Reward Index 34
Tourism Risk/Reward Index 34
Table: Caribbean - Tourism Risk/Reward Index 34
Rewards 35
Risks 36
Market Overview 37
Competitive Landscape 41
Domestic Hotel Groups 41
Table: Domestic Hotel Groups 41
International Hotel Groups 43
Table: International Hotel Groups 43
Methodology 45
Industry Forecast Methodology 45
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 46
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 48

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