Algeria Oil and Gas Report Q3 2014

  • June 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 143 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Despite Algeria's substantial hydrocarbons reserves, rapid production decline in the country's
major producing fields weighs on its longer-term production outlook. Whilst new projects due online in the
coming years will offer temporary support to production growth, we grow increasingly bearish towards the
end of our 10-year forecast period. The high prospectives of Algeria's unconventional and offshore acreage
could see this trend reversed, but a poor above-ground environment continues to drag on international
investment.
The key trends and developments in Algeria's oil and gas sector are:
- In January 2014, Algeria launched its tenth licensing round, with a total of 31 blocks up for tender. Of
these, 17 are in the south of the country, five in the north and nine in the centre. This will be the country's
first licensing round since reform of the hydrocarbon law in January 2013, and the attack on the In
Amenas gas facility. We anticipate the recent tax reforms and vast below-ground potential will help draw
interest in the round, but see fiscal incentives counteracted by a weighty bureaucracy, high level state
involvement, regulatory uncertainty and ongoing regional instability.

Table Of Contents

Algeria Oil and Gas Report Q3 2014
BMI Industry View ...... 7
SWOT ..... 8
Industry Forecast 9
Oil And Gas Reserves . 9
Table: Algeria Proven Oil and Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017 . 9
Table: Algeria Proven Oil and Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2018-2023 10
Table: Total Mean Undiscovered Conventional Resources In Basins Covering Algeria . . 12
Oil Supply And Demand ... 16
Table: Algeria Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017 16
Table: Algeria Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023 17
Gas Supply And Demand .. 21
Table: Algeria Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017 . . 21
Table: Algeria Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023 . . 22
Refining And Oil Products Trade ..... 30
Table: Algeria Refining - Production And Consumption, 2012-2017 . 30
Table: Algeria Refining - Production And Consumption, 2018-2023 . 30
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario ..... 32
Industry Risk Reward Ratings ...... 33
Africa - Risk/Reward Ratings ..... 33
Table: BMI's Africa Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings 34
Riches Lie Underground, While Above-Ground Risks Continue To Loom .. 34
Table: BMI's Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings 36
An Underwhelming Downstream ...... 41
Table: BMI's Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings 41
Algeria - Risk/Reward Ratings ... 45
Market Overview ...... 47
Algeria Energy Market Overview 47
Table: Algeria - Upstream Projects Database 48
Overview/State Role . 48
Licensing And Regulation . 49
Government Policy .. 50
Licensing Rounds .... 50
International Energy Relations . 51
Oil And Gas Infrastructure . 53
LNG 53
Oil Refineries .. 53
Gas Pipelines .. 55
Competitive Landscape .. 61
Competitive Landscape Summary ..... 61
Table: Key Players In The Algerian Energy Sector . 62
Table: Key Upstream Players . . 63
Table: Key Downstream Players . . 63
Company Profile 64
Enterprise Nationale Sonatrach .. 64
Anadarko .. 70
Eni Algeria Production ...... 73
BP .... 77
Total . 80
Repsol ...... 83
BHP Petroleum . 86
Cepsa 88
Statoil ...... 92
Other Summaries ...... 95
Regional Overview ... 99
Africa Overview 99
Rising Offshore Interest .... 99
Unconventionals : New Frontier .... 101
East Africa: Offshore Gas, Onshore Oil .. 102
Downstream Blues . 105
High-Risk Continent ...... 107
Global Industry Overview ..... 111
Global Energy Market Overview ..... 111
OPEC Reconsiders Modus Operandi ..... 113
Production Outages Look Likely To Persist .... 114
Global Oil Demand Picks Up . 115
Capex Growth Cycle Shifting Gears 117
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, Annual Average, USD/bbl 117
Appendix ... 120
Africa - Regional Appendix ...... 120
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d) . 120
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d) 121
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d) . 121
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d) . . 122
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d) 123
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d) . . 123
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm) . . 124
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm) 125
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm) . 125
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm) 126
Table: LNG Net Exports - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm) . . 127
Table: LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm) . 127
Algeria - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts ...... 128
Table: Algeria Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2012-2017 . . 128
Table: Algeria Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2018-2023 . . 129
Table: Algeria Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2012-2017 130
Table: Algeria Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2018-2023 131
Table: Algeria Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2012-2017 . 132
Table: Algeria Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2018-2023 . 133
Table: Algeria LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2012-2017 . 134
Table: Algeria LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2018-2023 . 134
Glossary .... 136
Table: Glossary Of Terms . . 136
Methodology .... 138
Industry Forecast Methodology ..... 138
Source .. 140
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology . 140
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings . 142
Table: Weighting . . 143

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