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  5. > Equatorial Guinea Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

Equatorial Guinea Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

  • May 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 83 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Equatorial Guinea's oil output will see smaller decline rates over the coming years on the backof several smaller projects. However, maturing fields and a lack of new significant discoveries will continueto push the production volumes to the downside over our entire forecast period. Ophir's Fortuna FLNGproject provides the most important upside to the country's gas production and net exports. While thecompany targets a FID by end-2016, we highlight risks to the project due to slowing global demand forLNG and the large wave of LNG projects coming online within the next few years.

Latest Updates and Key Forecasts

- Equatorial Guinea is forecast to see its oil and gas reserves stagnate or increase slightly over our forecastperiod to 2025 owing to maturing fields and lack of new significant discoveries. There is upsidepotential coming from a string of recent exploration activities offshore, as well as the new reduced-oilprice environment attracting investors to lower-risk and lower-cost ventures such as Equatorial Guinea.This is reflected in our slightly improved oil reserves outlook this quarter for the coming years.

- In mid-January 2015, the Equatoguinean government ratified the production sharing contract for BlockEG-06, signed with ExxonMobil and GEPetrol.

- We expect a smaller decline in production over 2016-2017 relative to recent years thanks to increasedproduction from the Aseng and Alen projects and the Alba B3 Compression unit. However, the oil sectorin Equatorial Guinea continues to face secular decline. In the absence of significant improvements in thefiscal terms on offer and broader regulatory stability, the country will be unable to draw investment intoits prospective deepwater acreage.

- This quarter we have pushed back first gas production from the Fortuna floating liquefied natural gas(FLNG) project to 2020 from our previous estimate of 2019 based on Ophir's updated FID and firstproduction date forecasts. The agreement with Schlumberger fell through in early 2016 and Ophir isnow looking for alternative financing sources leading to delays in FID and first production at the project.

Table Of Contents

Equatorial Guinea Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Equatorial Guinea 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Upstream Projects 17
Table: Equatorial Guinea Major Upstream Projects 17
Upstream Production - Oil 20
Latest Updates 20
Structural Trends 20
Table: Oil Production (Equatorial Guinea 2014-2019) 25
Table: Oil Production (Equatorial Guinea 2020-2025) 25
Upstream Production - Gas 26
Latest Updates 26
Structural Trends 26
Table: Gas Production (Equatorial Guinea 2014-2019) 29
Table: Gas Production (Equatorial Guinea 2020-2025) 29
Refining 30
Latest Updates 30
Structural Trends 30
Refined Fuels Consumption 31
Latest Updates 31
Structural Trends 31
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Equatorial Guinea 2014-2019) 33
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Equatorial Guinea 2020-2025) 33
Gas Consumption 34
Latest Updates 34
Structural Trends 34
Table: Gas Consumption (Equatorial Guinea 2014-2019) 35
Table: Gas Consumption (Equatorial Guinea 2020-2025) 35
Trade - Oil 36
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts 36
Latest Updates 36
Structural Trends 36
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Equatorial Guinea 2014-2020) 38
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Equatorial Guinea 2020-2025) 38
Refined Products Trade Forecasts 38
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Equatorial Guinea 2014-2019) 39
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Equatorial Guinea 2020-2025) 40
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 41
Latest Updates 41
Structural Trends 41
Table: Gas Net Exports (Equatorial Guinea 2014-2019) 46
Table: Gas Net Exports (Equatorial Guinea 2020-2025) 46
Industry Risk Reward Index 47
Africa - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 47
Table: BMI Africa Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 47
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential 50
Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index 50
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity 53
Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index 53
Equatorial Guinea Risk/Reward Index 55
Upstream Index - Overview 55
Downstream Index - Overview 55
Market Overview 56
Equatorial Guinea Energy Market Overview 56
Regulatory Structure 56
Fiscal Regime 57
Table: Equatorial Guinea - Upstream Tax Regime 57
Licensing Regime 58
Table: Equatorial Guinea - Contracts And Licensing Regime 58
Licensing Rounds 58
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 61
Oil Refineries 61
Table: Downstream Projects 61
Oil Storage Facilities 61
Oil Terminals And Ports 62
LNG Terminals 62
Table: Equatorial Guinea LNG Infrastructure 62
Oil And Gas Pipelines 62
Competitive Landscape 63
Table: Key Players - Equatorial Guinea Energy Sector 64
Company Profile 65
EG LNG 65
Latest Updates 65
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Equatorial Guinea 66
Regional Overview 67
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil 67
Table: Africa Oil and Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade 75
Glossary 76
Table: Glossary Of Terms 76
Methodology 78
Industry Forecast Methodology 78
Source 80
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 80
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 82
Table: Weighting 83

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