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Qatar Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 80 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The moratorium on upstream gas projects will limit the overall level of activity in the comingquarters, while work on a small number of enhanced oil recovery and redevelopment projects continues. Weexpect the fall in crude production to continue, with downside risk to steeper decline rates if enhancedrecovery programmes are scaled back due to capex cuts. Qatar's dominance of the liquefied natural gasexport market will increasingly be challenged by other producers, but efforts to diversify the economy awayfrom oil and gas will soften the impact.We highlight the following trends and developments in Qatar's oil and gas sector:

- BP, Royal Dutch Shell, Total, Chevron and ConocoPhillips have joined the bidding process for theretendering of the Maersk Oil operated al-Shaheen oil field. Qatar Petroleum is aiming to lift the crudeoutput from 300,000b/d to 500,000b/d, in what is Qatar's largest oil field.

- We have adjusted Qatar's gas production forecast to account for delays to the start up of the first phase ofthe Barzan gas project and also for a revision of our historical data.

Changing our historical data set hasled us to revise up 2016's production to 170.23bn cubic metres (bcm) up from our previous forecast of165.6bcm.

- Post-2016, Qatar does not have any new LNG contracts coming into force and, with 30.1bcm ofcontracts rolling off in the next ten years, it will have to start negotiating new contracts to secure longtermofftake. Despite the demand weakness in South Korea and Japan, we expect Asia to remain thedominant consumer of LNG, driven by strong growth in emerging markets such as China and India. Assuch, it will remain a key target for Qatar.

- Qatar is expected to see reduced investment in its oil and gas sector over the coming quarters as itattempts to diversify its economy. The majority of upstream investment in the next three years will focuson oil field redevelopments. We have moved the start date of the Ras Laffan (LR) refinery expansionforward to account for the recent update from Qatar Petroleum. The refinery will start processingcondensates in August, followed by commercial production beginning in October, contrary to thepreviously forecasted start at the end of Q416.

- Increased domestic processing of condensates will lead to condensate exports falling by 30.0%. Qatar'sexports around 460,000 b/d of condensates in the form of its two flagship condensate grades: theDeodorized Field Condensate (DFC) and the Qatar Low Sulphur Condensate (LSC). The Laffan refinerywill primarily use DFC as it is the more popular feedstock for condensate splitters, leading to a decline inDFC exports from 329,000b/d to 192,000b/d by 2017.

- In a drive to ease budgetary pressures and prevent wasteful consumption, as of May 2016, local fuelprices will fluctuate in response to global market changes, reflecting the full removal of subsidies. Inresponse to this we have marginally reduced our growth outlook for refined fuels consumption.

Table Of Contents

Qatar Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Qatar 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Structural Trends 11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Qatar 2014-2019) 11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Qatar 2020-2025) 12
Upstream Projects 14
Table: Qatar Upstream Projects 14
Upstream Production - Oil 15
Latest Updates 15
Structural Trends 15
Table: Oil Production (Qatar 2014-2019) 18
Table: Oil Production (Qatar 2020-2025) 18
Upstream Production - Gas 20
Latest Updates 20
Structural Trends 20
Table: Gas Production (Qatar 2014-2019) 22
Table: Gas Production (Qatar 2020-2025) 22
Refining 23
Latest Updates 23
Structural Trends 23
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Qatar 2014-2019) 24
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Qatar 2020-2025) 25
Refined Fuels Consumption 27
Latest Updates 27
Structural Trends 27
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Qatar 2014-2019) 28
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Qatar 2020-2025) 28
Gas Consumption 29
Latest Updates 29
Structural Trends 29
Table: Gas Consumption (Qatar 2014-2019) 30
Table: Gas Consumption (Qatar 2020-2025) 30
Table: Qatar Power 31
Trade - Oil 32
Crude Oil: Latest Updates 32
Crude Oil: Structural Trends 33
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Qatar 2014-2020) 34
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Qatar 2020-2025) 34
Refined Fuels: Latest Updates 35
Refined Fuels: Structural Trends 35
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Qatar 2014-2019) 36
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Qatar 2020-2025) 36
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) 37
Latest Updates 37
Structural Trends 37
Table: Gas Net Exports (Qatar 2014-2019) 41
Table: Gas Net Exports (Qatar 2020-2025) 41
Industry Risk/Reward Index 44
Middle East - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 44
Table: Middle East Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 44
Upstream: Index Resilient In Lower Price Environment 45
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 45
Downstream: Limited Opportunities 47
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 47
Qatar - Risk/Reward Index 50
Upstream Index 50
Downstream Index 50
Market Overview 51
Qatar Energy Market Overview 51
Fiscal Regime 52
Table: Qatar- Upstream Tax Regime 52
Licensing Regime 52
Table: Qatar- Contracts and Licensing Regime 52
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 53
Oil Refineries 53
Table: Refineries In Qatar 53
Table: GTL Plants In Qatar 55
LNG Terminals 56
Table: LNG Terminals In Qatar 56
Gas Pipelines 58
Competitive Landscape 59
Competitive Landscape Summary 59
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies In The Qatari Oil And Gas Sector 60
Table: Key Upstream Players 60
Table: Key Downstream Player 61
Company Profile 62
Qatar Petroleum 62
Table: Major Assets 63
Regional Overview 64
Middle East Oil and Gas Regional Overview 64
Oil Production: Two Tiers Emerging 64
Oil Consumption: Subsidy Reform Tempering Demand Growth 66
Table: Gasoline-95 Pump Price June 2015 and March 2016 (Usd/Litre) 66
Refining Capacity: Mega Refineries Outcompete In Oversupplied Market 68
Gas Production: In Need Of More Gas 69
Gas Consumption: Switch To Gas Power Will Boost Demand 71
Table: Middle East Oil and Gas Production, Refining Capacity and Trade 72
Glossary 73
Table: Glossary Of Terms 73
Methodology 75
Industry Forecast Methodology 75
Source 77
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 77
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 79
Table: Weighting 80

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